To assess public awareness and concern about the cholera outbreak, GeoPoll conducted a nationwide survey in Zambia using its proprietary Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) application. The remote mobile phone-based survey addressed a number of topics related to the outbreak, including:

• Access to water for drinking, cooking, and hygiene
• Access to sanitation
• Awareness of the cholera outbreak in Zambia
• Understanding of the causes, risks, and symptoms of cholera
• Household cholera experience and concern
• Access to cholera treatment
• Assessment of the government’s reaction to the outbreak

Findings from the survey show that for more than a third of respondents (35%), there has been a time in the past month when their household did not have sufficient quantities of drinking water when needed. All respondents claim to be aware of the current cholera outbreak, and most understand the causes, symptoms and where to go to seek treatment. Although only 2% of respondents report that anyone in their household has ever suffered from cholera, 36% believe they are at risk of contracting cholera, and 70% are very concerned about getting cholera. This illustrates respondents’ understanding of the severity of the disease.

Click below to download GeoPoll’s full written report on the cholera outbreak in Zambia or scroll down to view the survey data in the interactive dashboard.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the cholera outbreak in Zambia using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by gender, age group, and province.

Collect Data During Humanitarian Crisis with GeoPoll

GeoPoll regularly conducts international development and humanitarian aid research for United Nations agencies, NGOs, governments, humanitarian groups and other stakeholders in the development and relief sectors.

In times of crisis, GeoPoll’s mobile surveys can reach aid beneficiaries and vulnerable populations to collect vital data on food security, disaster relief, and more. Our remote research capabilities and innovative technology platform allow GeoPoll to survey communities that are inaccessible following natural disasters, conflict, or disease outbreaks, enabling organizations to gather on-the-ground insights and disseminate information quickly and safely.

This study was implemented by GeoPoll using our own mobile research platform and extensive respondent database. The questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and conducted via GeoPoll’s Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) application. Data collection occurred from February 22 to March 2, 2024. The survey was offered in English, Bemba, and Nyanja, and conducted from the GeoPoll call center in Lusaka, Zambia.

The diverse sample for the study of 400 respondents includes a gender composition of 50% female and 50% male, and an age breakdown of 25% ages 18-24, 29% ages 25-34, 32% ages 35-50, and 15% ages 51 and over. All 10 provinces (ADM1) in Zambia are equally represented.

For more information on the sample and methodology for this study or to conduct a research study of your own using the GeoPoll CATI application and our call centers around the world, contact us today.

The post GeoPoll Reports: Zambia Cholera Outbreak appeared first on GeoPoll.

To understand the effects the energy crisis is having on people throughout South Africa, GeoPoll conducted a survey in April 2023 using our proprietary research platform. The survey addressed a number of pressing topics related to the crisis, including:

• Satisfaction with current energy provision and pricing
• Coping strategies for rising electricity prices and loadshedding
• Impacts of loadshedding on everyday life and well-being
• Loadshedding adaptations and outlook
• Perceptions of government response to the energy crisis
• Perceived causes of and solutions to the crisis
• Potential impact of the crisis on upcoming elections

Findings from the survey indicate that loadshedding is impacting almost every aspect of life in South Africa. Most respondents have had internet connection issues, been forced to throw out food or perishables, and had appliances broken due to power cuts and surges, but many have also lost access to water, been a victim of a crime due to poor lighting, or been forced to close a business/lost a job. Almost 3 out of 4 respondents say loadshedding has had a negative effect on their ability to work and earn a living, and 65% say it has had a negative impact on their personal health and well-being.

South Africans remain skeptical of the government’s attempts to solve the energy crisis. They cite corruption and mismanagement as the biggest contributors to the crisis, and do not believe President Ramaphosa is doing enough to address those issues. As a result, most say they are much less likely to support the ruling ANC party in the 2024 elections.

Click below to download GeoPoll’s full written report on the energy crisis in South Africa or scroll down to view the survey data in the interactive dashboard.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the energy crisis using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by province, age group, and gender.

Conducting Research in Times of Crisis

In times of crisis and hardship, NGOs, governments, humanitarian groups, and other stakeholders in international development and humanitarian relief turn to GeoPoll for fast and affordable data collection. Our unique remote research system and methodologies, robust database, and direct integrations with mobile network operators enable us to reach affected populations in every corner of the world.

To learn more about GeoPoll’s capabilities and coverage, contact us today.

The post GeoPoll Reports: South Africa Energy Crisis appeared first on GeoPoll.

GeoPoll conducted a survey prior to the election to gauge public sentiment about the state of the country, people’s trust in the electoral process, and their intention to vote. Now that the presidential election is over, GeoPoll implemented a follow-up study to learn about people’s voting experiences on election day, as well as their confidence in the election process and results.

Findings from the post-election survey are detailed in this post. To view the full results, filterable by question, state, gender, and age group, scroll down to the Interactive Data Dashboard.

Voting Experience

Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a steady decline since peaking at 69% in 2003. Although 74% of respondents in our study claim to have voted in the 2023 election, only 29% of registered voters in Nigeria actually voted on election day – the lowest participation rate since Nigeria’s independence.

Of the 26% that did not vote, 41% say it was due to “registration/PVC problems.” Another 18% say they had problems at the polling station.

For those that did vote, most had a “good” or “very good” voting experience (61%). Only 19% had a “poor” or “very poor” experience.

61% of voters report a “good” or “very good” voting experience.

Both the expectation and initial reports of late starts at polling stations may have dissuaded some voters. Delays were blamed on a variety of issues, including technical difficulties, late-arriving officials, cash shortages that affected transport, and attacks on polling stations. Most of the voters in our study report experiencing at least minor delays (61%), with 21% saying their polling station opened more than 2 hours behind schedule.

Whether their polling station opened on time or not, most respondents waited in line for at least 1 hour to vote (60%). Almost 1 in 3 (32%) waited for 3 hours or more.

60% waited in line for at least 1 hour to vote.

Despite fears of violence leading up to the elections, voting was largely peaceful outside of a few isolated incidents. Those incidents likely contribute to the 4% of respondents that say they felt “very unsafe” at their polling station. Most, however, report feeling “somewhat safe” or “very safe” (81%). Women report feeling slightly less safe than men.

In our study conducted a week before the election, most respondents felt “frustrated” with the current situation in Nigeria. Frustration continues to be the most common sentiment now that the election is over, but the percentage dropped from 58% to 45%. The percentage feeling “scared” also decreased, while those experiencing positive feelings (hopeful, blessed and happy) increased.

Trust in the Electoral Process Pre- and Post-Elections

The electoral process for the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election has been plagued by controversy since before the first votes were cast. While acknowledging technical glitches with its vote tallying platform, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) stands by its declaration of Bola Tinubu as the president-elect, and has asked opposition parties to take their grievances to court.

As the parties prepare their legal challenges and the president-elect prepares his administration, we presented voters a series of statements related to their faith in the electoral process, and asked whether they agree or disagree with each statement.

Election Results Acceptance, Fraud, and Violence

Respondents’ expectations for a fraud- and violence-free election that would be accepted by all Nigerians far exceeded their actual experience. The chart below shows the percentages of respondents that “disagreed” or “strongly disagreed” with each of the three statements, both before and after the election.

Opposition party-led protests have dampened respondents’ hope that the results of the 2023 general elections will be accepted by all Nigerians. The percentage that “disagree” or “strongly disagree” with that statement climbed from 24% in the pre-election survey to 64% in the post-election survey.

Disputes over the electoral commission’s handling of the vote also increased perceptions of fraud. Those that disagree or strongly disagree that the elections will be/were free of fraud more than doubled pre-/post-election, rising from 29% to 67%.

Although election day has been deemed mostly peaceful, voters expected better. While only 33% disagreed or strongly disagreed that the elections would be free of violence and intimidation before the election, 63% disagree or strongly disagree with that statement now that the election is over.

Perceptions of INEC’s Performance

On election day, delays at polling stations, technical difficulties, and allegations of irregularities raised concerns about INEC’s planning and performance. After the election, glitches in INEC’s results viewing platform and delays in announcing the results appear to have amplified those concerns.

In our study, voters’ express significant dissatisfaction with INEC’s performance.

Only 31% of respondents agree or strongly agree that all parties and candidates were treated equally and fairly during the election process. Most appear to support opposition party claims of an overall lack of fairness.

Only 31% agree that all parties and candidates were treated equally and fairly.

In the pre-election survey, almost 2 in 3 respondents (65%) agreed or strongly agreed that INEC is transparent and informs the public and media about its activities. That percentage dropped to 34% after the election. Several independent observers, including the European Union, have criticized the election for lacking transparency.

The largest segment of respondents (39%) strongly disagree that INEC performed its duties with honesty and integrity during the 2023 elections. Only 9% strongly agree.

The delay in announcing a winner appears to have sapped public confidence in a free and fair election. Most agree or strongly agree (70%) that the delay in announcing a winner negatively impacts my perceptions of election integrity.

Most also say they have very little to no confidence (63%) in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.

63% have very little or no confidence in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.

Witnessing Election Day Interference

Before INEC formerly declared Bola Tinubu the winner of the 2023 presidential election, opposition parties called for a rerun, alleging widespread vote rigging and violence. In our study, we asked voters about any personal experience with these claims.

Overall, more than 1 in 3 respondents claim they or a friend personally witnessed incidences of vote-buying (37%), voter suppression (40%), ballot tampering (36%), and violence near polling stations (39%). Similar percentages say they were only told about those incidences happening by the media. Smaller percentages say they did not see or hear about those incidences happening at all.

Perceptions of Democracy

With disruption, delays, and irregularities weakening public perception of transparency and integrity in the electoral process, it follows that most respondents say they are “very dissatisfied” with the way democracy works in Nigeria (52%).

52% are very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in Nigeria.

Increasing transparency throughout the electoral process will be critical for boosting public trust in the integrity of Nigeria’s democracy moving forward.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the Nigeria elections using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.

Conduct Democracy and Governance Research with GeoPoll

GeoPoll’s mobile research and engagement platform allow governments and democracy groups to reach citizens in remote areas or conflict zones quickly and safely, without the need for on-the-ground enumerators. Using GeoPoll, organizations can administer surveys and educational messages to extremely specific target populations, giving them the ability to quickly assess situations and act upon the most up-to-date information.

GeoPoll conducted this survey using our proprietary SMS and mobile web research platforms. Data collection occurred from March 11-13, 2023. The multi-modal study used a simple random sampling technique from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to achieve a diverse mix of 542 voting-age adults from across Nigeria.

For more information on the sample and methodology for this study or to conduct a research study of your own, contact us today.

Top photo by Samuel Alabi on Unsplash

The post Nigeria Elections 2023: GeoPoll Post-Election Survey appeared first on GeoPoll.

To assess the situation on the ground, GeoPoll conducted a survey using its proprietary SMS and mobile web research platforms. The survey used a simple random sampling technique from GeoPoll’s database, gathering a sample size of more than 400 respondents per country (1,285 total) in a matter of hours as the protests were happening.

Findings from the study are detailed in this post published the morning after the protests. To view the full results, filterable by question, country, gender, and age group, scroll down to the Interactive Data Dashboard.

Public Perception and Outlook

With discontent rising to the point of public protests across Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, it follows that a majority of respondents in all three countries believe things in their country are currently going in the “wrong direction.” That perception remains consistent across gender and age groups.

The largest segment of respondents in each country reports feeling “frustrated” with the current situation (42%). Many also report feeling “scared” with the protests swirling around them.

Although public sentiment skews negative overall (frustrated, scared, angry), almost one in three respondents report feeling “hopeful” (32%). That climbs to 42% in Nigeria. Respondents in Nigeria are also most likely to believe their country will get “better” in the future (64%). In South Africa, more believe their country will get “worse” (45%) than get better (37%).

The issues driving dissatisfaction and unrest vary significantly between countries. Facing skyrocketing prices and new taxes in Kenya, most respondents consider “prices/cost-of-living” the country’s most urgent issue (62%). In Nigeria, the largest segment of respondents (33%) believe fighting “corruption” should be the top priority, while the crippling energy crisis in South Africa makes “electricity” the most urgent issue.

Political Parties and Leaders

Protestors across Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa rallied on Monday to call out their respective government’s inability to address their country’s issues. In our study, more than half of respondents in South Africa and Nigeria (59% and 53%) and just less than half in Kenya (46%) say they have a “somewhat” or “very unfavorable” opinion of the current government/ruling party.

Opposition party leaders face a fair amount of skepticism as well. Respondents’ opinions of the opposition parties/leaders spearheading the mass actions in their country (Azimio/Raila Odinga in Kenya, PDP/Atiku Abubakar in Nigeria, and EFF/Julius Malema in South Africa) skew only slightly more favorable than their opinions of the ruling party.

Planned Participation

Most respondents did not plan to participate actively in the Monday nationwide strike (59%). Almost 1 in 4 (22%) did plan to participate, however. Another 19% were not yet sure, creating the potential for a formidable shutdown. Nigeria had the largest segment planning to participate at 27%.

The percentages that planned to participate in protests or demonstrations this week show similar trends. Kenya, where the protests were declared illegal, had the fewest planning to participate (20%).

Potential Outcomes

One of the reasons why respondents may have been hesitant to participate in the strikes and protests is the potential for violence. A majority in all three countries say they are “extremely concerned” about the protests leading to violence or destruction.

Early reports out of Kenya on Monday describe the use of tear gas and arrests in response to the protests. In South Africa, 87 people were arrested before the protests even began for alleged public violence.

In addition to concerns about violence, many also express skepticism about the impact of the protests. The largest segment overall say they are “not optimistic at all” that the strikes/protests will positively impact their country. Skepticism runs particularly high in South Africa (47%) and Kenya (46%).

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into the full results from this study using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by region, age group, and gender.

Conduct Research in Times of Crisis

GeoPoll has extensive experience conducting research in times of crisis and unrest through remote mobile-based methodologies. In situations when it is otherwise impossible to get information from people on the ground, remote data collection allows governments and democracy groups to reach citizens in remote areas or conflict zones quickly and safely, without the need for on-the-ground enumerators.

To learn more about GeoPoll’s capabilities across Africa and around the world, please contact us.

Top photo credits: @EFFSouthAfrica

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1. Monitoring changes in weather patterns: Mobile surveys can collect data on weather patterns, such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, from respondents across different locations. This data can identify trends and changes in weather patterns over time.
2. Assessing the impact of climate change on ecosystems: Mobile surveys can be used to gather data on the health and condition of ecosystems, such as forests, wetlands, and coral reefs. This data can be used to assess the impact of climate change on these ecosystems and identify areas that require conservation efforts.
3. Tracking the adoption of climate-friendly behaviors: Mobile surveys can be used to track the adoption of climate-friendly behaviors, such as reducing energy consumption, using public transportation, and recycling. This data can be used to identify areas where more education and outreach are needed to encourage sustainable behaviors. Here is a report from a mobile survey GeoPoll conducted in the Caribbean on Climate change perceptions.
4. Identifying vulnerable populations: Mobile surveys can be used to gather data on the vulnerability of different populations to the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events and sea-level rise. This data can inform policy decisions and allocate resources to vulnerable communities. Here is another report we conducted on the impact of climate change on women in Pakistan.
5. Guide humanitarian relief responses – When natural crises such as hurricanes and floods occur, it is important for relief providers to move with speed and provide targeted aid to those in the affected areas. Mobile surveys help access such areas, which wouldn’t otherwise be reachable by researchers.

GeoPoll Climate Change Research Use Cases

Over the years, GeoPoll has developed remote mobile surveying capabilities that allow energy, climate, and environmental stakeholders to gather ongoing data to measure trends or one-off data from specific populations.

• Assess the green energy market – assess community awareness, usage, availability, and habits around green energy to inform green energy strategies.
• Assess natural disaster preparedness – assess preparedness for potential natural disasters and predict resilience levels if a natural disaster occurs.
• Assess resilient farming practices – assess farmer perceptions of, and experiences with, climate-resilient farming practices and new farming technologies.
• Monitoring and Evaluation – measure the impact of climate-focused initiatives on communities.
• Measure climate change behaviors – track community perceptions about climate change and changes in behavior due to climate.
• Measure access to resources – measure perceptions of the effectiveness of interventions intended to increase access to natural resources.
• Quickly access populations hit by climate crises – Due to our huge database of respondents and capability to move quickly, GeoPoll can deploy mobile surveys to assess the impact of the crises and assess the needs of the victims to help direct humanitarian relief.

Overall, mobile surveys can be a valuable tool for tracking climate change, but ensuring that the data collected is representative and reliable is important, and this is where GeoPoll comes in.

If you are in the climate, energy, and environment space, contact GeoPoll to learn more about our capabilities and how we can help.

The post Using Mobile to Track Climate Change appeared first on GeoPoll.

To assess public perception in the days leading up to the election, GeoPoll conducted a survey using its proprietary SMS and mobile web research platforms. The multi-modal study used a simple random sampling technique from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to achieve a diverse sample of 434 voting-age adults from across Nigeria.

Given the relatively small sample size, this study is not intended to predict the results of the election in any way, but rather to provide a directional snapshot of public sentiment as the election approaches.

Findings from the study are detailed in this post. To view the full results, filterable by question, state, gender, and age group, scroll down to the Interactive Data Dashboard.

Public Perception and Outlook

With Nigeria facing numerous challenges, including a rising cost of living, record unemployment, and widespread poverty and insecurity, if follows that almost half of respondents believe Nigeria is going in the “wrong direction.”

More than 2 out of 3 respondents (67%) aged 36 and older believe the country is going in the wrong direction.

The perceived trajectory of the country has most feeling “frustrated” with the current situation (58%). This holds true across gender and age groups.

Although frustration is the leading public sentiment right now, “hopeful” is second at 38%, illustrating an at least somewhat positive outlook. Further, when asked directly about the future of Nigeria, 69% of respondents say they think it will get “better” compared to only 12% that believe it will get worse.

In order for Nigeria to move forward, however, respondents say the country must first deal with widespread “corruption.”

More than 1 in 4 respondents view “security” as the biggest challenge to peace and stability in Nigeria (28%).

Access to Election News and Information

Nigerians are paying close attention as they prepare to vote in what has become a highly contentious election. In our study, almost all respondents say they are following information about the election at least daily (89%).

89% say they are following information about the election at least daily

Some feel unsatisfied with the information they are getting, however. Only 62% say they are able to access all the true and accurate information about the election that they need.

Disinformation is clearly a concern. More than 9 out of 10 respondents (94%) suspect at least “a little” of the information they have seen or heard about the election to be false or inaccurate.

In January 2023, a BBC investigation concluded that political parties and supporters in Nigeria were illegally paying social media influencers to spread disinformation about their opponents in the upcoming election. Recent reports in The Guardian also uncovered disinformation tactics used to manipulate the results in Nigeria’s 2015 election.

Voting Intentions

Public interest and engagement in the upcoming election is illustrated in the fact that 86% of respondents say they have registered to vote.

86% say they have a Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC)

Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a steady decline over the past 20 years. The political parties and candidates have been working hard during this election cycle to reverse those trends, but concerns about turnout remain. Despite the 86% of respondents that say they have registered to vote and the 65% that claim they are “very likely” to vote, the percentage of people that actually show up on election day to cast their ballot will likely fall far below those lofty claims.

Likelihood to vote increases with age. Those saying they are “very likely” to vote ranges from 59% for respondents aged 18-25 to 70% for respondents aged 36 and older. The mean scores range from 3.99 to 4.23 on a 5-point scale.

Regardless of age group, the largest segment of respondents (71%) says their choice for President will be based on “competence.” “Trust” and a “clear manifesto” are also important considerations for most.

Trust in the Electoral Process

Trust in the electoral process is critical for reducing voter apathy and increasing turnout. Following credible reports in previous elections of ballot stuffing and paying for votes, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says it has implemented technologies and other measures to help ensure that this election is free from fraud and corruption.

To assess voting-age Nigerians’ perceptions of the electoral process in the week leading up to the election, we presented them a series of statements related to the process and asked whether they agree or disagree with each statement.

More than half of respondents (52%) believe in the electoral process enough to agree or strongly agree that the results of the 2023 elections will be accepted by all Nigerians. Only 5% strongly disagree.

Almost half (49%) agree or strongly agree that the elections will be free of fraud. That percentage drops to 40% for respondents aged 18-25. Men express more trust in a fraud-free election than women (51% to 43%).

Although almost 2 in 3 respondents agree or strongly agree that INEC is transparent and informs the public and media about its activities (65%), significantly less believe INEC is an independent institution and not is not influenced by political considerations (50%).

With reports of INEC offices being attacked in the months leading up to the election, only 43% of respondents agree or strongly agree that the elections will be free of violence and intimidation.

Overall, more than 2 in 3 respondents (67%) express at least “a fair amount” of confidence in the ability of INEC to organize credible elections.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the Nigeria elections using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.

Conduct Multi-modal Research with GeoPoll

GeoPoll is a full-service market and social research agency that conducts surveys via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), short message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and mobile web/mobile application communications. We also conduct online and offline qualitative research.

This study was implemented by GeoPoll using our own mobile research platform. The questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and conducted via SMS and mobile web technology. Data collection occurred from February 14-18, 2023. The diverse sample includes a gender composition of 33% females and 67% males, an age breakdown of 22% aged 18-25, 45% aged 26-35, and 33% aged 36 and over, and representation from every state (ADM1) in Nigeria.

For more information on the sample and methodology for this study or to conduct a research study of your own using our multi-modal research platform, contact us today.

The post Nigeria Elections 2023: GeoPoll Public Perception Survey appeared first on GeoPoll.

The role of the mobile phone in combatting violent extremism

With the rise and rise of mobile phone penetration globally, mobile has become one of the most effective channels to deliver and collect information, both of which are integral to combatting violent extremism. This can take course in a variety of strategies and approaches, including:

• Developing and distributing counter-narrative content by creating and distributing content that challenges the narratives and ideologies of extremist groups and provides alternative perspectives. These materials can be distributed through social media, messaging apps, and other mobile platforms.
• Providing early warning and reporting systems that allow individuals to report potential threats and extremist activity in real time.
• Offering de-radicalization and rehabilitation programs to individuals who have been radicalized or are at risk of radicalization. This can involve creating mobile apps or online resources that provide information, counseling, and other support to individuals who need help disengaging from extremist groups.
• Building community resilience and promoting social cohesion through mobile-based platforms that connect people and promote dialogue and understanding.
• Providing education and awareness-raising about the dangers of violent extremism and how to counter it. This can involve creating mobile apps or online resources that provide information and resources to help people understand the issues and take action to combat violent extremism.
• Intelligence gathering on extremist groups, their leaders, and their activities.

Overall, mobile technology can be a powerful tool in the fight against violent extremism, but it is important to use it responsibly and ethically. It is also essential to work closely with communities and other stakeholders to ensure that any efforts to combat violent extremism using mobile technology are effective and sustainable.

Using surveys to combat violent extremism

Surveys are one of the most effective ways to gather insights from people on the ground regarding pretty much anything. In combatting violent extremism can be integral to gathering information and insights about the attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors of individuals and communities that may be at risk of radicalization or involvement in violent extremist groups.

Surveys can be used to:

• Identify risk factors for radicalization such as poverty, unemployment, lack of education, and exposure to extremist ideologies.
• Assess the effectiveness of counter-radicalization programs and to identify areas for improvement.
• Develop targeted interventions by gathering information about the specific needs and concerns of individuals and communities at risk of radicalization. This information can be used to develop targeted interventions that address the specific issues and challenges facing these groups.
• Measure the impact of interventions designed to combat violent extremism. This can involve surveying individuals and communities before and after an intervention to assess changes in attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors.
• Monitor and track change in attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors over time. This can involve surveying the same individuals or communities regularly to assess changes in their attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors over time.

Limitations of using surveys to combat violent extremism

While surveys can be a valuable tool in the fight against violent extremism, they do have certain limitations, including:

• Self-selection bias: Surveys rely on individuals to willingly participate, and those who do not participate may have different attitudes or beliefs than those who do. This can lead to self-selection bias, where the results of the survey may not be representative of the population as a whole.
• Social desirability bias: Surveys often rely on self-reported data, and respondents may be inclined to give socially acceptable answers rather than their actual beliefs or behaviors. This can lead to social desirability bias, where the survey results may not accurately reflect the true attitudes or behaviors of the population.
• Privacy and security concerns: Surveys can put participants at risk if the data is not kept confidential or if the survey is perceived as a way for the government or other groups to gather intelligence on individuals and communities.

Given the sensitivity of violent extremism, it is important to ensure that the survey design is appropriate and that the data is collected in a way that respects the privacy and confidentiality of the participants. It is also essential to analyze the data in a rigorous and unbiased manner. Surveys should be conducted in partnership with local communities to ensure that the survey is culturally and contextually appropriate and that the results are used in a way that benefits the community.

Working with GeoPoll to combat violent extremism using mobile

GeoPoll regularly works with development organizations, governments and other stakeholders to reach all types of populations, even in areas that are hard to reach, for example, due to violence and unrest. Using our unique mobile-based methods and global coverage, we conduct remote surveys and help send one-way messages to people in selected geographies and demographics. To learn more about our work in combatting violent extremism and other solutions, do not hesitate to contact us.

The post How to Combat Violent Extremism using Mobile appeared first on GeoPoll.

Since Russian troops first invaded Ukraine in February 2002, GeoPoll has been collecting data to monitor the situation on the ground using our Mobile Web survey platform. We published a series of reports in March and June 2022 detailing up-to-the-minute results from the surveys. Our interactive dashboard tracker (scroll to the bottom of this page) continues to display the full results, including responses to most survey questions filterable by region, age group, and gender, as well as trends over time.

In this post, we highlight key changes in the data over the past few months and detail the results from several new survey questions that have been added since the last report.

Perceptions of Foreign Influence

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having global consequences. The far-reaching impact is forcing nations from around the world to weigh in on the crisis. While the United States, the European Union (EU), and their allies implement sanctions on Russia and provide military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, other countries, including Iran and North Korea, have been supplying advanced weaponry to Russia.

Opinions of Foreign Entities

With much of the world involved in Ukraine in one form or another, we asked respondents for their opinions on several foreign powers. As the chart below displays, respondents in Ukraine clearly feel more favorably towards western powers that are supporting their efforts than they do towards China or especially Russia.

Perceived Value of Relationships with Foreign Entities

Respondents also express much more enthusiasm about building a closer relationship with the EU than with Russia. In response to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine recently became a candidate country to join the EU.

Many North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries have provided arms and other military assistance to Ukraine since the war began but have drawn the line at offering troops. Following Russia’s annexation of four partially occupied regions in Ukraine on September 30, President Zelensky officially applied for “accelerated ascension” into NATO. Although unlikely in the near term, if Ukraine were to become a NATO member, other member countries would be obligated to join Ukraine’s defense.

In our study, aside from observed data irregularities in August (evident in the chart below and addressed at the end of this post) respondents have expressed overwhelmingly positive views about the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. On average, 41% of respondents say it would be a “very good thing” for Ukraine to join NATO. Another 32% say it would be a “somewhat good thing.”

Russia’s announced annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson on September 30 and its renewed bombing campaign starting on October 10 appear to have strengthened those views. On September 29, 40% of respondents said it would be a “very good thing” for Ukraine to join NATO. By the end of October, that percentage climbed to 59%.

Safety and Displacement

Personal Safety

More than half the respondents in our ongoing study (52%) have reported feeling unsafe in their everyday lives. With rapid Ukrainian advances pushing back Russian troops in September, the running percentage steadily declined. That trend changed in mid-October, however, when a fresh wave of Russian drone and missile strikes pushed the number of respondents feeling unsafe to 68%. The airstrikes marked the biggest escalation in the conflict since fighting began.

Personal and Observed Displacement

A similar trend surfaced for those saying they had to move or flee recently due to the war. After a gradual decline throughout September, the rate of displacement started to climb back up in mid-October along with the renewed bombing campaign, jumping from 27% to 40% by the end of the month. The UN estimates that more than 1 in 3 Ukrainians have been forced from their homes since the war began.

The percentage of respondents that claim to know someone that has been forced to move or flee has remained above 80% since last May. Where those people are moving, however, changed dramatically in October. On October 1, 30% of respondents said most of the people they know that have fled “have moved to another country.” That segment grew to 48% by October 31.

As of October 31, most respondents (82%) say they “plan to stay in the locality they are now” for the next few weeks. That percentage has climbed steadily since hovering around 67% in the month of May.

Access to Necessities

Coordinated missile attacks on Ukraine’s power grid are taking a toll. In addition to plunging much of the population into darkness, without electricity, authorities also struggle to provide citizens with water, fuel, or advanced medical care.

Food, Water, and Electricity Shortages

In our study, on October 10, 44% of respondents said they had experienced at least some shortages of necessities such as fuel, water, or electricity in the past few weeks. By mid-November, that percentage reached 80%.

Communication Outages

Communication services appear to be faring even worse. A combination of missile attacks and cyber-attacks have damaged much of Ukraine’s electrical and communications infrastructure. Starlink satellite service has served as a communications lifeline for many civilians and the military throughout the war, but also recently experienced outages. In our study, the percentage of respondents that report experiencing communications outages at least 2-3 times per week exploded from 7% in mid-October to 34% in mid-November. Only 13% of respondents from across the country say they never experience outages.

Primary News Platforms

Internet access is particularly important given the growing number of Ukrainians that rely on social media to follow the news. In our ongoing research study, the percentage of respondents using social media to follow the news has climbed steadily from 68% in early March to 87% on October 31. The percentage using TV has declined.

Building and Housing Status

Russia has bombarded towns and cities across all regions of Ukraine. Millions have been forced to flee some of the hardest hit locations already, but Russia’s recent escalation of missile attacks promises even more destruction and displacement in the days ahead.

Damage to Residential and Non-residential Buildings

Starting in October, we introduced questions in our survey asking respondents about the status of residential and non-residential buildings in their immediate area. As of November 15, 30% report at least moderate damage to the majority of residential buildings in their area, and 28% report at least moderate damage to the majority of non-residential buildings.

Current Living Situation

Respondents’ reported living situation follows their description of residential buildings in their area. Approximately 1 in 4 (24%) claim to currently be living somewhere other than their regular residence.

In July, the Ukrainian government estimated that more than 800,000 homes had been damaged or destroyed since Russia first invaded in February.

Impact on Daily Household Activities

Russia’s war has impacted almost every aspect of daily life in Ukraine. Aside from the dangers of the conflict and the damage to infrastructure, almost half the respondents in our study say the war has negatively impacted their ability to “socialize with friends and family” or to “go to work.” More than a third say it has impacted their ability to “run errands, such as grocery shopping, clothes shopping, or fueling vehicles.”

Humanitarian Relief

The Red Cross estimates that 18 million people in Ukraine are in need of humanitarian aid. Most respondents in our study (83% overall) say that humanitarian organizations are currently in their area to provide relief.

International Aid Received

The percentage that claims to have personally received aid in the form of food, money, water, or other supplies has more than doubled since March 2022, rising from 19% to 52% by mid-November.

As the fighting intensifies and temperatures drop, more and more Ukrainians are likely to find themselves in desperate need of humanitarian assistance. Even if the war ended immediately, the heavy damage already inflicted on homes, essential infrastructure, and people’s lives and well-being in the region will require substantial international funding and relief for many years to come.

Reconstruction Priorities

After more than eight months of war, the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is enormous. Ukrainian President Zelensky recently stated that approximately 40% of the country’s entire energy infrastructure has been seriously damaged. Since mid-October, Russia appears particularly focused on attacking Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure.

Damage to Energy Infrastructure

Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure is reflected in the steadily growing number of respondents in our study that claim to have experienced “electricity” shortages since mid-October (much more than any other fuel source).

Physical Reconstruction Needs

Considering the current shortages, it follows that 3 out of 4 respondents in our study (74%) believe reconstructing their Oblast’s “power/electricity facilities” should be a top priority when hostilities cease. Rebuilding “roads” comes in a distant second at 31%. Rebuilding “homes” is rated the third highest priority at 21%.

Despite frequent reported outages, only 11% of respondents believe repairing their Oblast’s “telecommunications” infrastructure should be a top priority.

Data Irregularities in August

Looking back at trends in the survey data over the past eight months, curious spikes appear in the opposite direction of the trendlines in the middle of August. The number of survey completes also dropped during that timeframe. After averaging around 65 completes per day in the first 5 months of the study, the average fell to 18 completes per day between August 1 and August 21 – then immediately climbed back up to more than 60 completes per day starting August 22.

Digging deeper into the data, many of the spikes offer a pro-Russian sentiment. For example, respondents’ opinions of Russia and China are much more favorable in that timeframe, while their opinions of the US are much less favorable.

Other examples include:

• Those claiming to be ethnically Russian rose from 4% to 17% in August
• The percent claiming Russian as their primary language more than doubled (35% to 78%)
• Those saying joining NATO would be “a very bad thing” for Ukraine climbed from averaging less than 20% to 64%
• Those saying having a closer relationship with Russia would be “a very good thing” spiked from averaging less than 10% to 44%

To view the spikes in the trendlines for all survey questions, scroll down to our interactive dashboard tracker (scroll down).

Russia’s interference with Ukraine’s internet offers a potential reason for the spikes. As described in a New York Times article from August 9, Russia has been working to restrict, reroute, or shut down the internet and cellular networks in large sections of eastern and southern Ukraine. This control and censorship of Ukraine’s internet by Russia could help explain the increase in pro-Russian sentiment, as well as the decrease in survey completes in August. The article also describes how restoring connectivity has been one of Ukraine’s first objectives as they regain control of Russian-controlled regions, which could explain why Russian sentiment and the number of completes quickly returned to normal at the end of August.

Monitoring trends in data collection over time provides a unique opportunity to identify potential infiltration by parties that may wish to drive a particular narrative.

Interactive Data Dashboard

GeoPoll’s interactive data dashboard displays the full results from the ongoing survey in Ukraine, including responses to each question filterable by region, age group, and gender, as well as trends over time.

Click the arrows “< >” at the bottom of the dashboard to scroll through the following data tabs:

• All Data: Charts responses to each question in the survey filterable by region, age group, and gender
• Daily Data: Tracks daily responses to select questions in the survey
• Trends (10 Day Avg): Displays trends in responses to select survey questions using rolling 10-day averages

Conduct Research in Ukraine

GeoPoll has extensive experience conducting research in vulnerable areas using our remote mobile-based systems and methodologies. In times when it is otherwise impossible to get information from people on the ground, remote data collection can play a pivotal role in capturing the sentiment and realities in hard-to-reach populations.

To learn more about GeoPoll’s capabilities in Ukraine and around the world, please contact us.

The post GeoPoll Update on Russia’s War in Ukraine appeared first on GeoPoll.

To understand how people around the world are experiencing and coping with the cost-of-living crisis, GeoPoll conducted a survey in August 2022 in 9 countries from across Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The survey addressed a number of pressing topics related to the crisis, including:

• Changes in consumer income and financial welfare
• Changes in the costs of goods and services
• Food security
• Financial outlook and future concerns
• Financial coping strategies
• Perceptions of government response to the crisis
• Impact on upcoming elections
• Impact on mental health

Findings from the survey indicate that rising prices have impacted almost everyone. Most say prices have “increased a lot” in the past 6 months, reducing their family’s standard of living. The largest segment in all 9 countries say they are “extremely concerned” about rising prices, with more than half saying it has negatively impacted their mental health.

Many pin the blame for the crisis on government corruption and mismanagement. Disapproval of their government’s actions related to the crisis has already escalated into social unrest in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. If prices continue to rise as predicted, other developing nations may face the same risk.

Clearly, it is imperative for governments and policymakers to do everything in their power to slow the rising cost of living.

Click below to download GeoPoll’s full written report on the cost of living crisis or scroll down to view the survey data in the interactive dashboard.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the global cost of living crisis using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by country, age group, and gender.

Conduct Research Around the World with GeoPoll

In times of crisis and hardship, NGOs, governments, humanitarian groups, and other stakeholders in international development and humanitarian relief turn to GeoPoll for fast and affordable data collection. Our unique remote research system and methodologies, robust database, and direct integrations with mobile network operators enable us to reach affected populations in every corner of the world.

To learn more about GeoPoll’s capabilities and coverage, contact us today.

The post GeoPoll Reports: Global Cost of Living Crisis appeared first on GeoPoll.

Still, there is a lot of confusion about what it actually means.

This article discusses big data, why everyone is talking about it, and its comparison to research-based data.

What is big data?

Big data is a combination of structured, semi-structured, and unstructured data collected by organizations that can be mined for information and used in machine learning projects, predictive modeling, and other advanced analytics applications.

Oracle describes big data as data that contains greater variety, arriving in increasing volumes and with more velocity (the three Vs).

According to Tech Target, big data doesn’t equate to any specific volume of data. Still, big data deployments typically involve terabytes, petabytes, and even exabytes of data created and collected over time.

How do big data and research data compare and contrast?

Whereas big data can tell us what has happened in the past and can make predictions on future events, in itself, it cannot explain “why” it happened. Research data that is more targeted to a specific question and can also include qualitative data can answer “why,” which is a fundamental difference between the two types of research.

Actually, research data can form an essential part of further enriching data sets that contribute to big data.

Rather than getting caught up in the semantics of the differences and which is more effective, the more important question is not how much data you have but what you do with it. The value of information obtained from the two methods of data collection and analysis (whether from large volumes of unstructured data – big data or research-based data) determines the most effective one for your business.

If we were to focus on the desired outcome of a data-gathering project by its ability to drive decision-making, then we see that both big data and data from research are just a means through which we get an outcome. Various other considerations must be made for each, such as the availability of the data in the first place, big data analysis capabilities, and the cost of marketing research, among others.

While research aims at solving particular research questions, big data tries to make sense of the information available where the topic/research question may or might not be in context, ergo sometimes the need to have ‘influencers’ to drive the topic.

Big data takes a lot of time to get output from, while research could be scoped to a particular time, reducing the time it takes to get the insights needed to make a business decision.

What does big data mean for market research data?

The question as to whether big data will render data from direct market research obsolete continues to elicit colossal debate in the research industry. In the developed world, big data is, in many aspects, providing insights that, traditionally, only market research could. In emerging markets, there may not be as much data to prompt the concern about the continued primary role and need for market research.

To answer this question, one must first contemplate the role of primary or secondary research in today’s world. The role of market research is to understand consumer behavior and perception and measure the consumption of goods or services. Or, simply put, the “hows” and the “whys.”

Without context and connections, big data is useless. It is simply megabytes of data that need to be compiled and manipulated to answer a question.

Humans are irrational, and more often than not, why they behave in a certain way or make the decisions they make cannot be explained or even predicted. No amount of machine intelligence through big data analytics will be able to answer the “whys.”

Big data can’t replace the need for market research. Instead, the two complement each other, as each has its purpose and benefits that, if used correctly, can effectively understand consumer behavior.

So, which is more important?

Organizations still strive to understand and respond to shifts in demand and consumer preferences. By having a clear understanding of the capabilities and challenges of big data and research data, businesses can effectively plan their expenditure either on tools to collect and analyze their own big data or go the primary research route by engaging a research agency such as GeoPoll to get a complete picture of consumer behavior and preferences.

Talk to us about your data and research needs.

The post Big data analytics vs market research data appeared first on GeoPoll.