elections Archives - GeoPoll https://www.geopoll.com/blog/tag/elections/ High quality research from emerging markets Fri, 06 Oct 2023 13:37:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.geopoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/favicon-2.png elections Archives - GeoPoll https://www.geopoll.com/blog/tag/elections/ 32 32 Liberia 2023 Elections Online Survey: Perspectives and Preferences of the Liberian People https://www.geopoll.com/blog/liberia-2023-elections/ Tue, 03 Oct 2023 07:43:39 +0000 https://www.geopoll.com/?p=21320 In the run-up to Liberia’s pivotal 2023 Elections, GeoPoll conducted an extensive opinion poll from September 20 to October 3, 2023, across […]

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In the run-up to Liberia’s pivotal 2023 Elections, GeoPoll conducted an extensive opinion poll from September 20 to October 3, 2023, across all Liberian counties via online mobile web. This inclusive survey encompassed diverse age groups and genders, aiming to gauge the sentiments and preferences of the Liberian populace and provides crucial insights into the perspectives, concerns, and preferences of the Liberian electorate, offering valuable guidance for electoral authorities, political candidates, and civil society organizations as Liberia approaches its 2023 Elections.

The Liberia Elections 2023 hold immense significance for the nation’s democratic journey, and this poll seeks to provide valuable insights into the perspectives, concerns, and aspirations of the Liberian people, fostering transparency and accountability within the electoral process.Liberia 2023 Elections Survey

Key Findings: Liberia 2023 Elections Survey

State of the Nation:

  • The survey reflects a lack of confidence in the government’s capacity to address Liberia’s challenges, with 65.85% expressing low to very low trust levels.
  • A significant majority (78.3%) perceive corruption as prevalent within the government and public institutions.
  • The survey portrays a challenging socio-economic landscape, with 81% describing the current state of poverty as severe.
  • Employment challenges are prevalent, as nearly 92% find it challenging to secure stable work.

Women in Leadership:

  • 84.88% of respondents believe there is a need for more representation of women in political and leadership roles.

ECOWAS Awareness:

  • 63.9% are aware to some degree of the role and importance of ECOWAS in the region, highlighting the need for continued public awareness efforts.

2023 Elections:

  • 54.15% of respondents feel “very much informed” about the forthcoming elections.
  • Radio (72.93%) and social media (71.95%) are the primary sources of election-related information.
  • Confidence in the fairness and transparency of the election process is diverse, with 40.7% expressing low confidence levels.

Voter Registration and Turnout:

  • An overwhelming 98% of respondents are registered voters, with 99% planning to vote in the upcoming elections.

Factors Influencing Voter Choices:

  • Leadership qualities (92%), experience (72%), and policies (66%) are pivotal factors in candidate selection, while tribe (14%) and party affiliation (11%) have lesser influence.

Download the free, comprehensive research report.

Download Free Report

Interactive Dashboard:

Dive deeper into the survey findings in the interactive dashboard below, which enables you to filter each question’s results by gender, age group and county.

Methodology and Assumptions

The 2023 Liberian Elections opinion poll was conducted from August 20 to October 3, 2023, encompassing all counties in Liberia through mobile web. GeoPoll Mobile web surveys are sent to respondents via an initial text message or other channel containing a link to a mobile web survey. Mobile web surveys are popular because they allow for more complex question types than SMS. While they require the respondent to have a data (internet) connection, they do not require a smartphone.

However, considering that this survey was conducted via mobile web links, please be aware that it may not be fully representative of the Liberian population. The sample predominantly comprises connected or online individuals, which may introduce bias towards more educated, urban demographics, potentially underrepresenting less affluent, illiterate, elderly, or populations without access to internet-enabled phones.

A stratified random sampling approach considered geographic (all counties), age (18-24: 13%, 25-35: 48% and 36+: 38%), and gender (68% Males and 32% Females) representation. The sample size was 410 respondents. Advanced statistical analysis was employed to aggregate and interpret the data.

For more information about this survey, our capabilities or to request for data files, please contact us. 

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The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer Survey DRC – Q2 2023 Report https://www.geopoll.com/blog/drc-socio-political-barometer-q2-2023/ Wed, 23 Aug 2023 10:51:46 +0000 https://www.geopoll.com/?p=21145 Passer au Français >> The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and […]

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Socio-Political Barometer DRC - Q2 2023

The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and political issues in developing countries. It uses large-scale face-to-face survey research supported by state-of-the-art technology that streamlines the survey process and ensures data integrity.

The Socio-Political Barometer survey for the second quarter of 2023 was conducted across all provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo from 5 April to 20 July 2023.

Key Highlights from the Report

  • Confidence in the country’s direction has decreased, especially among female respondents.
  • President Tshisekedi’s average satisfaction rating has slipped back below 5/10.
  • Despite declining perceptions (more prominent among the youth), Tshisekedi maintains strong support for a second term.
  • Perceptions of President Tshisekedi’s policy effectiveness, notably in his free education initiative, are consistently improving, reflecting a prevailing sentiment that despite challenging circumstances, he is making significant progress in critical areas.
  • There is decreasing willingness to consider alternatives as the focus narrows on preferred candidates.
  • A fragmented opposition would be unlikely to challenge Tshisekedi’s re-election.
  • Voter turnout is expected to be low, with only 38% intending to vote in the upcoming presidential election. Strong intention to vote correlates with positive views of Tshisekedi.

Download the Report

Fill in your email address here to download GeoPoll’s full report of the findings from this research project for free:


For more information contact [email protected].


République Démocratique du Congo – Enquête Baromètre Socio-Politique GeoPoll Q4 2022

Le Baromètre Socio-Politique de GeoPoll est une initiative visant à recueillir des données rapides, précises et robustes sur les questions sociales et politiques clés dans les pays en développement. Il utilise des enquêtes en face-à-face à grande échelle soutenues par une technologie de pointe qui simplifie le processus d’enquête et garantit l’intégrité des données.

L’enquête du Baromètre Socio-Politique pour le deuxième trimestre 2023 a été menée dans toutes les provinces de la République démocratique du Congo du 5 avril au 20 juillet 2023.

Faits saillants du rapport

  • La confiance dans la direction du pays a diminué, notamment parmi les répondantes féminines.
  • La note moyenne de satisfaction du Président Tshisekedi est retombée en dessous de 5/10.
  • Malgré des perceptions en baisse (plus prononcées chez les jeunes), Tshisekedi bénéficie d’un fort soutien pour un second mandat.
  • Les perceptions de l’efficacité des politiques du Président Tshisekedi, notamment dans son initiative d’éducation gratuite, s’améliorent régulièrement, reflétant un sentiment dominant qu’en dépit de circonstances difficiles, il réalise des progrès significatifs dans des domaines critiques.
  • Il y a une diminution de la volonté de considérer des alternatives alors que le focus se resserre sur les candidats préférés.
  • Une opposition fragmentée aurait peu de chances de contester la réélection de Tshisekedi.
  • La participation électorale devrait être faible, avec seulement 38 % ayant l’intention de voter lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle. Une forte intention de voter est liée à des opinions positives envers Tshisekedi.

Télécharger le rapport

Renseignez votre adresse e-mail ici pour télécharger gratuitement le rapport complet de GeoPoll sur les résultats de cette recherche :


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Nigeria Elections 2023: GeoPoll Public Perception Survey https://www.geopoll.com/blog/nigeria-elections-2023-survey/ Wed, 22 Feb 2023 20:55:27 +0000 https://www.geopoll.com/?p=20230 On Saturday 25 February 2023, voters in Nigeria will head to the polls to elect their next president. Amid growing discontent due […]

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On Saturday 25 February 2023, voters in Nigeria will head to the polls to elect their next president. Amid growing discontent due to economic hardship and mounting insecurity, citizens in Africa’s most populous country and largest economy will cast their ballots hoping for a new era.

To assess public perception in the days leading up to the election, GeoPoll conducted a survey using its proprietary SMS and mobile web research platforms. The multi-modal study used a simple random sampling technique from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to achieve a diverse sample of 434 voting-age adults from across Nigeria.

Given the relatively small sample size, this study is not intended to predict the results of the election in any way, but rather to provide a directional snapshot of public sentiment as the election approaches.

Findings from the study are detailed in this post. To view the full results, filterable by question, state, gender, and age group, scroll down to the Interactive Data Dashboard.

Public Perception and Outlook

With Nigeria facing numerous challenges, including a rising cost of living, record unemployment, and widespread poverty and insecurity, if follows that almost half of respondents believe Nigeria is going in the “wrong direction.”Nigeria direction

More than 2 out of 3 respondents (67%) aged 36 and older believe the country is going in the wrong direction.

The perceived trajectory of the country has most feeling “frustrated” with the current situation (58%). This holds true across gender and age groups.

Situation in Nigeria

Although frustration is the leading public sentiment right now, “hopeful” is second at 38%, illustrating an at least somewhat positive outlook. Further, when asked directly about the future of Nigeria, 69% of respondents say they think it will get “better” compared to only 12% that believe it will get worse.

Nigeria outlook

In order for Nigeria to move forward, however, respondents say the country must first deal with widespread “corruption.”

Urgent issues in Nigeria

More than 1 in 4 respondents view “security” as the biggest challenge to peace and stability in Nigeria (28%).

Access to Election News and Information

Nigerians are paying close attention as they prepare to vote in what has become a highly contentious election. In our study, almost all respondents say they are following information about the election at least daily (89%).

89% say they are following information about the election at least daily

Access to accurate news in NigeriaSome feel unsatisfied with the information they are getting, however. Only 62% say they are able to access all the true and accurate information about the election that they need.

Disinformation is clearly a concern. More than 9 out of 10 respondents (94%) suspect at least “a little” of the information they have seen or heard about the election to be false or inaccurate.

Fake news in Nigeria

In January 2023, a BBC investigation concluded that political parties and supporters in Nigeria were illegally paying social media influencers to spread disinformation about their opponents in the upcoming election. Recent reports in The Guardian also uncovered disinformation tactics used to manipulate the results in Nigeria’s 2015 election.

Voting Intentions

Public interest and engagement in the upcoming election is illustrated in the fact that 86% of respondents say they have registered to vote.

86% say they have a Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC)

Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a steady decline over the past 20 years. The political parties and candidates have been working hard during this election cycle to reverse those trends, but concerns about turnout remain. Despite the 86% of respondents that say they have registered to vote and the 65% that claim they are “very likely” to vote, the percentage of people that actually show up on election day to cast their ballot will likely fall far below those lofty claims.

Likely to vote in Nigeria

Likelihood to vote increases with age. Those saying they are “very likely” to vote ranges from 59% for respondents aged 18-25 to 70% for respondents aged 36 and older. The mean scores range from 3.99 to 4.23 on a 5-point scale.

Regardless of age group, the largest segment of respondents (71%) says their choice for President will be based on “competence.” “Trust” and a “clear manifesto” are also important considerations for most.

Reason for vote in Nigeria

Trust in the Electoral Process

Trust in the electoral process is critical for reducing voter apathy and increasing turnout. Following credible reports in previous elections of ballot stuffing and paying for votes, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says it has implemented technologies and other measures to help ensure that this election is free from fraud and corruption.

To assess voting-age Nigerians’ perceptions of the electoral process in the week leading up to the election, we presented them a series of statements related to the process and asked whether they agree or disagree with each statement.

Trust in the Electoral Process

 

More than half of respondents (52%) believe in the electoral process enough to agree or strongly agree that the results of the 2023 elections will be accepted by all Nigerians. Only 5% strongly disagree.

Almost half (49%) agree or strongly agree that the elections will be free of fraud. That percentage drops to 40% for respondents aged 18-25. Men express more trust in a fraud-free election than women (51% to 43%).

Although almost 2 in 3 respondents agree or strongly agree that INEC is transparent and informs the public and media about its activities (65%), significantly less believe INEC is an independent institution and not is not influenced by political considerations (50%).

With reports of INEC offices being attacked in the months leading up to the election, only 43% of respondents agree or strongly agree that the elections will be free of violence and intimidation.

Overall, more than 2 in 3 respondents (67%) express at least “a fair amount” of confidence in the ability of INEC to organize credible elections.

INEC confidence

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the Nigeria elections using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.

Conduct Multi-modal Research with GeoPoll

GeoPoll is a full-service market and social research agency that conducts surveys via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), short message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and mobile web/mobile application communications. We also conduct online and offline qualitative research.

This study was implemented by GeoPoll using our own mobile research platform. The questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and conducted via SMS and mobile web technology. Data collection occurred from February 14-18, 2023. The diverse sample includes a gender composition of 33% females and 67% males, an age breakdown of 22% aged 18-25, 45% aged 26-35, and 33% aged 36 and over, and representation from every state (ADM1) in Nigeria.

For more information on the sample and methodology for this study or to conduct a research study of your own using our multi-modal research platform, contact us today.

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Democratic Republic of the Congo – The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer Survey – Q4 2022 Report https://www.geopoll.com/blog/drc-socio-political-barometer-survey-q4-2022/ Tue, 21 Feb 2023 11:41:58 +0000 https://www.geopoll.com/?p=20215 Passer au Français >> The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and […]

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The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and political issues in developing countries. It uses large-scale face-to-face survey research supported by state-of-the-art technology that streamlines the survey process and ensures data integrity. We conducted the second Barometer wave from November to December 2022 and are pleased to present the report!

Key Highlights from the Report

  • Access to free education continues to be the leading driver of optimism in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This wave also reveals improved perceptions of the country’s security, roads, schools, hospitals, and sporting prowess.
  • Unemployment and insecurity are the most cited dysfunctional areas, closely followed by the state of the country’s roads and rising prices.
  • Overall expectations from the government are similar to Q3. However, there has been a significant increase in people demanding better roads, an end to insecurity, and better financial circumstances (i.e., lower prices and higher wages.
  • President Tshisekedi’s approval ratings grew from Q3 to Q4, with more people satisfied with his leadership and willing to vote for him in the upcoming elections.
  • There are no signs of a significant rehabilitation of President Kabila’s legacy. A head-to-head comparison with President Tshisekedi on all matters shows a wide gap in perceptions of the two figures that are consistent and even growing a little over time
  • Some respondents feel there has been an improvement in transparency and accountability from the President, with more care taken when making appointments.

Download the Report

Fill in your email address here to download GeoPoll’s full report of the findings from this research for free:


For more information contact [email protected].


République Démocratique du Congo – Enquête Baromètre Socio-Politique GeoPoll Q4 2022

Le baromètre socio-politique GeoPoll est une initiative visant à collecter des données rapides, précises et robustes sur les principaux problèmes sociaux et politiques dans les pays en développement. Il utilise une recherche par sondage à grande échelle en face à face appuyée par une technologie de pointe qui rationalise le processus d’enquête et garantit l’intégrité des données. Nous avons mené la deuxième vague du Baromètre de novembre à décembre 2022 et sommes heureux de vous présenter le rapport !

Faits saillants du rapport

  • L’accès à l’éducation gratuite continue d’être le principal moteur de l’optimisme en République démocratique du Congo. Cette vague révèle également une amélioration des perceptions de la sécurité, des routes, des écoles, des hôpitaux et des prouesses sportives du pays.
  • Le chômage et la précarité sont les dysfonctionnements les plus cités, suivis de près par l’état des routes du pays et la hausse des prix.
  • Les attentes globales du gouvernement sont similaires à celles du T3. Cependant, il y a eu une augmentation significative du nombre de personnes réclamant de meilleures routes, la fin de l’insécurité et de meilleures finances (c’est-à-dire des prix plus bas et des salaires plus élevés).
  • Les cotes d’approbation du président Tshisekedi ont augmenté du troisième au quatrième trimestre, avec plus de personnes satisfaites de son leadership et disposées à voter pour lui lors des prochaines élections.
  • Il n’y a aucun signe d’une réhabilitation significative de l’héritage du président Kabila. Une comparaison directe avec le président Tshisekedi sur tous les sujets montre un large écart dans les perceptions des deux chiffres qui sont cohérents et même en croissance un peu au fil du temps
  • Certains répondants pensent qu’il y a eu une amélioration de la transparence et de la responsabilité du président, avec plus de soin dans les nominations.

Télécharger le rapport

Renseignez votre adresse e-mail ici pour télécharger gratuitement le rapport complet de GeoPoll sur les résultats de cette recherche :


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Democratic Republic of the Congo – The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer Survey – Report Preview https://www.geopoll.com/blog/socio-political-barometer-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-report-preview/ Fri, 23 Dec 2022 16:29:24 +0000 https://www.geopoll.com/?p=20099 The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and political issues in developing […]

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The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and political issues in developing countries. It makes use of large-scale face to face survey research, supported by state-of-the-art technology that streamlines the survey process and ensures the integrity of the data. We conducted the second Barometer wave from November to December 2022. A full report will be released after the holidays, included here is an early preview of the key highlights.

Sampling and Methodology

The Socio-Political Barometer survey for the fourth quarter of 2022 was conducted across all provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo from 15 November to 18 December 2022. A cluster sampling methodology was applied to draw a sample of 9,253 households across the DRC by means of Geospatial Information System (GIS) based selection. This sampling method is an improvement on wave 1 in terms of accuracy and representativeness, and reflects our ongoing commitment to constantly improving our work in challenging markets. A randomly selected adult member of each household completed a 20-minute face to face interview with a trained and experienced professional interviewer.

Results

The Socio-Political Barometer data collected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in November and December 2022 surfaced the following key metrics and trends.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo today, what do you think WORKS?

What works in DRC graph

Access to free education continues to be the leading driver of optimism in the DR Congo. This wave also reveals improved perceptions of the country’s security, roads, schools, hospitals and sporting prowess. Potentially, the IGF has featured less in the news this quarter, and hence is less endorsed by respondents.

What do you think DOES NOT WORK?

What does not work in DRC graph

Unemployment and insecurity are the most cited dysfunctional areas, closely followed by the state of the country’s roads and rising prices. All are cited by more respondents this wave than in July. Security and roads appearing as both functional and dysfunctional areas suggests these are polarizing issues in Congolese society – a positive experience for some and negative for others.

How satisfied are you with President Tshisekedi’s current mandate? Would you grant him a second term at the ballot box?

Satisfaction with DRC President

Which other potential candidate also has every chance of being elected President against the incumbent?

Only half the respondents believe there is another candidate worth considering, and when pressed to specify, 29% of those said they had not decided who that candidate might be.

viable president candidates in DRC

For the small minority that were willing to express support for a challenger to President Tshisekedi the leader is Martin Fayulu with 18% support, followed by Moise Katumbi on 16%. Kabila, Matata and Bemba are vying for third place at around 4-5%

Closing Insights

It is not possible to determine if the apparent improvement in perceptions both of the country and the President are due to shifts in perception over time or a result of the improved sampling approach we took. Either way, President Tshisekedi would seem to be in a somewhat stronger position at this point in time than we initially estimated.

Look out for our full report in January 2023.

About GeoPoll

GeoPoll is a full-service market and social research agency that conducts surveys via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), short message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and mobile web/mobile application communications. We also conduct online and offline qualitative research.

GeoPoll is currently operational on five continents and employs 104 permanent staff worldwide. Our headquarters is in Denver, Colorado, USA, with a second US office in Washington, DC focused on international development projects. Our largest office is our operations and project management hub in Nairobi, Kenya, with on the ground representatives and coordinators working across eight additional countries. GeoPoll also contracts with carefully selected and rigorously trained partners across the world who bring additional skills, expertise, technology, and capacity as required.

As a member of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR), the Marketing and Social Research Association (MSRA) Kenya, the Pan African Media Research Organisation (PAMRO), the Society for International Development (SID), and the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), GeoPoll adheres to the strictest ethical and research standards and employs highly rigorous methods and approaches to data collection and analysis.

Our surveys have been cited and analyzed in several highly respected academic journals, such as the Journal of International Public Opinion Research and the Journal of International Development.

For more information contact [email protected].

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Democratic Republic of the Congo – The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer Survey https://www.geopoll.com/blog/socio-political-barometer-democratic-republic-of-the-congo/ Tue, 23 Aug 2022 06:52:22 +0000 https://www.geopoll.com/?p=19778 Jump to English GeoPoll lance une enquête baromètre socio-politique en République démocratique du Congo Le baromètre socio-politique GeoPoll est une initiative visant […]

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Jump to English

GeoPoll lance une enquête baromètre socio-politique en République démocratique du Congo

Le baromètre socio-politique GeoPoll est une initiative visant à collecter des données rapides, précises et solides sur les principaux problèmes sociaux et politiques dans les pays en développement. Il utilise des sondages à grande échelle en face à face, soutenus par une technologie de pointe qui rationalise le processus d’enquête et garantit l’intégrité des données.

Methodologie

Notre première enquête de baromètre socio-politique au Congo a été menée en juillet 2022, interrogeant 10 532 répondants à travers le pays à l’aide de l’application d’intervieweur mobile personnalisée de GeoPoll. L’ échantillone des données ont été collectées dans 33 villes et dans 145 territoires de la République Démocratique du Congo. Grâce à l’application de cette technologie en combinaison avec notre expérience et notre expertise, GeoPoll a étroitement géré et surveillé la qualité de la collecte de données et l’exactitude des données collectées.

Télécharger le rapport gratuit

Resultats

Les résultats de la première série d’entretiens font apparaître plusieurs paramètres et tendances sociopolitiques clés.

Les répondants citent le chômage, la médiocrité des infrastructures et l’insécurité comme les préoccupations les plus pressantes du Congo. Il y a une pression importante sur le Président Felix Tshisekedi pour qu’il progresse dans ces domaines et dans d’autres, d’autant plus qu’il cherche à obtenir un second mandat lors des élections prévues pour 2023.

Un peu plus de la moitié des personnes interrogées expriment leur volonté d’accorder un second mandat au président Tshisekedi, tandis qu’un tiers déclarent ne pas avoir l’intention de voter pour un autre candidat. Bien que les rivaux potentiels aient de solides bases de soutien régionales, aucun d’entre eux ne semble avoir suffisamment de soutien au niveau national pour monter un défi significatif. Les perspectives de réélection du président Tshisekedi semblent donc bonnes à ce stade.

Un aspect de la performance du président actuel sur lequel plus de 80% des personnes interrogées s’accordent est qu’il représente une amélioration significative par rapport à l’administration précédente de Joseph Kabila. Seuls 5% des répondants au niveau national estiment que Kabila serait un candidat viable à la présidence lors des prochaines élections. Les répondants qui pensent que le pays est mieux dirigé sous le président Tshisekedi sont deux fois plus nombreux que ceux qui préfèrent les années Kabila.

Télécharger le rapport

Renseignez votre adresse e-mail ici pour télécharger gratuitement le rapport complet de GeoPoll sur les résultats de cette recherche :


Mener des recherches sociales et politiques avec GeoPoll

GeoPoll est une agence de recherche sociale et de marché à service complet qui mène des enquêtes via des entretiens téléphoniques assistés par ordinateur (CATI), des entretiens personnels assistés par ordinateur (CAPI), un service de messages courts (SMS), WhatsApp et des communications d’applications mobiles Web/mobiles. Nous effectuons également des recherches qualitatives en ligne et hors ligne.

Contactez-nous dès aujourd’hui pour en savoir plus sur nos capacités à collecter des données sur les principaux problèmes sociaux et politiques en République démocratique du Congo et dans les pays en développement du monde entier.


GeoPoll launches a socio-political barometer survey in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and political issues in developing countries. It makes use of large-scale face-to-face survey research, supported by state-of-the-art technology that streamlines the survey process and ensures the integrity of the data.

Methodology

Our first Socio-Political Barometer survey in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was conducted in July 2022, interviewing 10,532 respondents across 33 cities and 145 territories across the country using GeoPoll’s custom mobile interviewer application. Through the application of this technology in combination with our experience and expertise, GeoPoll closely managed and monitored the quality of data collection and the accuracy of the data collected.

Download Free Report

Results

Findings from the first round of interviews surface several key socio-political metrics and trends.

Respondents cite unemployment, poor infrastructure, and insecurity as the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s most pressing concerns. There is significant pressure on President Felix Tshisekedi to make progress in these and other areas, especially as he looks to secure a second term in the elections planned for 2023.

DRC distribution

Just over half of respondents express a willingness to grant President Tshisekedi a second term, while a third say they have no intention of voting for another candidate. Although potential rivals have strong regional support bases, none of them seem to have enough support at a national level to mount a significant challenge. The prospects for re-election for President Tshisekedi, therefore, seem to be good at this stage.

One aspect of the current president’s performance on which more than 80% of respondents agree is that he represents a significant improvement over the previous administration of Joseph Kabila. Only 5% of respondents at a national level feel that Kabila would be a viable candidate for president in the next elections. Respondents that believe the country is better run under President Tshisekedi outnumber those who prefer the Kabila years by two to one.

Democratic Republic of the Congo Tshisekedi vs Kabila

Download the Report

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Kenya Elections 2022: A Survey Report https://www.geopoll.com/blog/kenya-elections-2022-report/ Wed, 03 Aug 2022 19:07:54 +0000 https://www.geopoll.com/?p=19702 Kenya goes into the General Election 2022 on August 9th. To gather insights into some of the aspects surrounding the election, GeoPoll […]

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Kenya goes into the General Election 2022 on August 9th. To gather insights into some of the aspects surrounding the election, GeoPoll ran an internally sponsored opinion poll covering a number of topics, which we are pleased to release in this report.

GeoPoll, a leading market and social research company, conducted the survey in person utilizing our Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) platform. The technology enabled trained enumerators to collect data face-to-face from a nationwide sample in just two weeks (July 19 – August 2), ensuring up-to-the-minute election feedback.

92%: The Intent to Vote is Quite High – will there be a higher voter turnout than in 2017?

The voter turnout for the 2017 Kenya General Elections was 79.51%. This year, according to our survey, 92% of registered voters answered yes to the question “Do you intend/plan to participate in the upcoming elections on August 9th, 2022?” Five percent said they do not plan to vote, while 3% were yet to make up their minds.

Do you intend/plan to participate in the upcoming elections
A higher proportion of male voters (93%) said they planned to vote, compared to females (91%). Age-wise, older respondents are more likely to vote (96% for 45+-year-olds and 93% for 34-45 year-olds) than younger voters.

A growing voters base: 29% will be voting for the first time in this election.

Battleground: A good number of voters are still undecided

With a week to the elections, only 67% on average are decided on who to vote for (for all seats except the presidential election). More than 1 in 4 (27%) are still undecided and 2% plan to go with the 6 piece – voting for their party candidates.

Decided who to vote for
Thinking about the elective positions and considering the position of XX. Have you already decided on who to vote for

Information Sources and Fake News

When the respondents were asked if they feel able to access all the true/accurate information they need about the 2022 General Election, 56% replied in the affirmative. A significant 26% responded “no” and 13% claimed to be unsure.

Most respondents (60%) have encountered information about the election that they suspect to be deliberately false or inaccurate. While 19% say they have encountered “some” false information or fake news, 6% say “all” the information they encountered has been false. Forty percent do not believe any of the election information they encountered has been false.

Most trusted channels for election related information and news
 How much of the info that have you seen/heard about the August 9th 2022 general election do you suspect to be deliberately false/inaccurate?

TV and Radio are the most trusted source of election-related Information

The media plays a critical role in any democratic and governance process, and it is imperative that news and information around elections be credible to guide the decisions of the voters. But trust is relative and can be tied to the perceptions the people have of the media channels.

In this survey, most people said they trusted TV (60%) and radio (55%) to provide the most credible information. In an environment where blogs are considered too informal and unregulated, news websites were the least trusted.

most trusted news channels for the kenya election
Which THREE sources do you MOST trust to provide accurate information regarding the 2022 general election?

Sampling & Methodology

This survey was conducted in person by trained enumerators between July 19 and August 2, 2022 using GeoPoll’s Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) mode. It is a nationally representative survey meaning that GeoPoll proportionately covered the entire country to the county and sub-county levels, deriving the sample from population data from the 2019 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Census.

The number of respondents was 4,488 (a 1.47% margin of error) with 52% females and 48% males. The age groups were distributed as follows: 15-24: 32%, 25-34: 36%, 35-44: 16% and 45+: 15%. 64% of the respondents live in rural areas while 34% live in urban areas and the rest live in peri-urban settings. The sample included respondents covering all education levels, ranging from respondents without formal education to holders of post-graduate qualifications.

If you have questions or would like more information about this survey, the methodology used and the sampling frame, please contact us via info-at-geopoll.com.

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GeoPoll at the Second USIP Iraq Peace Tech Camp https://www.geopoll.com/blog/geopoll-at-the-second-usip-iraq-peace-tech-camp/ Wed, 05 Feb 2014 23:27:14 +0000 https://wp.geopoll.com/2017/12/16/geopoll-at-the-second-usip-iraq-peace-tech-camp/ During the first weekend of February, Max Richman, Chief Data Scientist at GeoPoll, attended the US Institute of Peace (USIP)’s second Peace […]

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During the first weekend of February, Max Richman, Chief Data Scientist at GeoPoll, attended the US Institute of Peace (USIP)’s second Peace Tech Camp in Erbil, Iraq (here’s a link to the first). Below is a summary of his short but sweet experience.

PeaceTech-Camp-Iraq-2-group-photo
USIP’s Peace Tech Camp brought together a diverse group of technologists. (Source: Ben Parker)

The goal of the second Iraqi Peace Tech Camp was to bring international and local technologists together, along with representatives from civil society groups and non-governmental organizations, to learn new approaches on how to utilize technology in support of their missions. There were individuals from across Iraq present, and some seriously smart folks in the room. Some of the local volunteer technologists had recently set up the first hacker space in Baghdad, and others had expertise in areas such as women’s rights, but were less well-versed in mobile and web technologies. Given the diverse audience, translations were provided between English, Kurdish, and Arabic.

The first day focused on new ideas and defining addressable problems. The morning began with rapid speed ‘geeking’ sessions where participants got a flavor for various new technologies. As always, I was blown away by the tech-savvy local and international volunteers leading the speed round. Mustafa Adil, an IT Administrator from Erbil, showed participants how to quickly and easily set up their own WordPress sites, dispelling myths that running websites is expensive and difficult for everyday web users. Sean McDonald from FrontlineSMS discussed how groups around the world are using affordable mobile technology to get direct feedback from program beneficiaries, and Anahi Ayala Iacucci of Internews showed where mapping tools are being used to collect and document examples of sexual harassment. I talked about GeoPoll’s pre-election mobile surveys in Tunisia and Afghanistan, and the impact they had in raising awareness around elections and helping local organizations target their efforts. These are but a few of the many technology topics we covered in the speed round.

GeoPoll’s Max Richman (left) in one of the Peace Tech Camp sessions. (Source: Ben Parker)

From the speed rounds, it was clear that participants were interested in learning about surveys and data analysis more generally, so I provided subsequent training sessions on those topics. By the end of the sessions, participants walked away with more knowledge about question design, sampling, choosing survey modes, and how to collaboratively prepare and share results, particularly using free tools like Google Forms and Google Spreadsheet. After a full first day, participants had also developed dozens of definitions for possible addressable problems that breakout groups would tackle the next day.

On Day Two, participants volunteered to lead popular breakout groups and I joined a group focused on NGO coordination, a huge challenge everywhere in the world. Local civil society representatives co-facilitated the morning and afternoon sessions while I listened through a translator and offered occasional suggestions including examples of contact lists and “who’s doing what where” tables. The day, and the camp, wrapped-up with the group expressing their goal to build an alliance among their six organizations, and discussing next steps on how to grow that network beyond Peace Tech Camp.

Some of the many mobile products being sold in Erbil. (Source: Max Richman)

While there was not much free time at the conference (especially since I was battling a cold for most of it), a few of us did manage to visit the Qaysari Bazaar in central Erbil. I was amazed by the ubiquity of mobile phones sellers and airtime agents there; you could scarcely take a step without bumping into one. Many prominently displayed stacks of Iraqi dinar at their kiosks, as though to prove their reliability as a vendor through the number of bills they had. In one part of the bazaar, around a hundred young men stood around viewing new phones and bargaining for airtime purchases. Prominent billboards all around the rapidly urbanizing and growing city encouraged residents to join their mobile networks. In urban Erbil, mobile phones were everywhere, and Android smart phones and iPhones were quite common among the wealthier populations

Overall, the experience was rewarding and enriching. Erbil is a beautiful and booming city. Seeing the passion of the local volunteers and participants was inspiring, and a few of the ideas that came out seem to have real momentum, including creating a database of photos highlighting life in Iraq in a positive light, which is often drowned out by images of violence in the media. The whole GeoPoll team looks forward to helping out at future Peace Tech Camps!

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