The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and political issues in developing countries. It uses large-scale face-to-face survey research supported by state-of-the-art technology that streamlines the survey process and ensures data integrity.

The Socio-Political Barometer survey for the second quarter of 2023 was conducted across all provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo from 5 April to 20 July 2023.

Key Highlights from the Report

• Confidence in the country’s direction has decreased, especially among female respondents.
• President Tshisekedi’s average satisfaction rating has slipped back below 5/10.
• Despite declining perceptions (more prominent among the youth), Tshisekedi maintains strong support for a second term.
• Perceptions of President Tshisekedi’s policy effectiveness, notably in his free education initiative, are consistently improving, reflecting a prevailing sentiment that despite challenging circumstances, he is making significant progress in critical areas.
• There is decreasing willingness to consider alternatives as the focus narrows on preferred candidates.
• A fragmented opposition would be unlikely to challenge Tshisekedi’s re-election.
• Voter turnout is expected to be low, with only 38% intending to vote in the upcoming presidential election. Strong intention to vote correlates with positive views of Tshisekedi.

Download the Report

Fill in your email address here to download GeoPoll’s full report of the findings from this research project for free:

For more information contact [email protected].

République Démocratique du Congo – Enquête Baromètre Socio-Politique GeoPoll Q4 2022

Le Baromètre Socio-Politique de GeoPoll est une initiative visant à recueillir des données rapides, précises et robustes sur les questions sociales et politiques clés dans les pays en développement. Il utilise des enquêtes en face-à-face à grande échelle soutenues par une technologie de pointe qui simplifie le processus d’enquête et garantit l’intégrité des données.

L’enquête du Baromètre Socio-Politique pour le deuxième trimestre 2023 a été menée dans toutes les provinces de la République démocratique du Congo du 5 avril au 20 juillet 2023.

Faits saillants du rapport

• La confiance dans la direction du pays a diminué, notamment parmi les répondantes féminines.
• La note moyenne de satisfaction du Président Tshisekedi est retombée en dessous de 5/10.
• Malgré des perceptions en baisse (plus prononcées chez les jeunes), Tshisekedi bénéficie d’un fort soutien pour un second mandat.
• Les perceptions de l’efficacité des politiques du Président Tshisekedi, notamment dans son initiative d’éducation gratuite, s’améliorent régulièrement, reflétant un sentiment dominant qu’en dépit de circonstances difficiles, il réalise des progrès significatifs dans des domaines critiques.
• Il y a une diminution de la volonté de considérer des alternatives alors que le focus se resserre sur les candidats préférés.
• Une opposition fragmentée aurait peu de chances de contester la réélection de Tshisekedi.
• La participation électorale devrait être faible, avec seulement 38 % ayant l’intention de voter lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle. Une forte intention de voter est liée à des opinions positives envers Tshisekedi.

Télécharger le rapport

Renseignez votre adresse e-mail ici pour télécharger gratuitement le rapport complet de GeoPoll sur les résultats de cette recherche :

The post The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer Survey DRC – Q2 2023 Report appeared first on GeoPoll.

The GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer is an initiative to collect rapid, accurate, and robust data on key social and political issues in developing countries. It uses large-scale face-to-face survey research supported by state-of-the-art technology that streamlines the survey process and ensures data integrity. We conducted the second Barometer wave from November to December 2022 and are pleased to present the report!

Key Highlights from the Report

• Access to free education continues to be the leading driver of optimism in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This wave also reveals improved perceptions of the country’s security, roads, schools, hospitals, and sporting prowess.
• Unemployment and insecurity are the most cited dysfunctional areas, closely followed by the state of the country’s roads and rising prices.
• Overall expectations from the government are similar to Q3. However, there has been a significant increase in people demanding better roads, an end to insecurity, and better financial circumstances (i.e., lower prices and higher wages.
• President Tshisekedi’s approval ratings grew from Q3 to Q4, with more people satisfied with his leadership and willing to vote for him in the upcoming elections.
• There are no signs of a significant rehabilitation of President Kabila’s legacy. A head-to-head comparison with President Tshisekedi on all matters shows a wide gap in perceptions of the two figures that are consistent and even growing a little over time
• Some respondents feel there has been an improvement in transparency and accountability from the President, with more care taken when making appointments.

Download the Report

Fill in your email address here to download GeoPoll’s full report of the findings from this research for free:

For more information contact [email protected].

République Démocratique du Congo – Enquête Baromètre Socio-Politique GeoPoll Q4 2022

Le baromètre socio-politique GeoPoll est une initiative visant à collecter des données rapides, précises et robustes sur les principaux problèmes sociaux et politiques dans les pays en développement. Il utilise une recherche par sondage à grande échelle en face à face appuyée par une technologie de pointe qui rationalise le processus d’enquête et garantit l’intégrité des données. Nous avons mené la deuxième vague du Baromètre de novembre à décembre 2022 et sommes heureux de vous présenter le rapport !

Faits saillants du rapport

• L’accès à l’éducation gratuite continue d’être le principal moteur de l’optimisme en République démocratique du Congo. Cette vague révèle également une amélioration des perceptions de la sécurité, des routes, des écoles, des hôpitaux et des prouesses sportives du pays.
• Le chômage et la précarité sont les dysfonctionnements les plus cités, suivis de près par l’état des routes du pays et la hausse des prix.
• Les attentes globales du gouvernement sont similaires à celles du T3. Cependant, il y a eu une augmentation significative du nombre de personnes réclamant de meilleures routes, la fin de l’insécurité et de meilleures finances (c’est-à-dire des prix plus bas et des salaires plus élevés).
• Les cotes d’approbation du président Tshisekedi ont augmenté du troisième au quatrième trimestre, avec plus de personnes satisfaites de son leadership et disposées à voter pour lui lors des prochaines élections.
• Il n’y a aucun signe d’une réhabilitation significative de l’héritage du président Kabila. Une comparaison directe avec le président Tshisekedi sur tous les sujets montre un large écart dans les perceptions des deux chiffres qui sont cohérents et même en croissance un peu au fil du temps
• Certains répondants pensent qu’il y a eu une amélioration de la transparence et de la responsabilité du président, avec plus de soin dans les nominations.

Télécharger le rapport

Renseignez votre adresse e-mail ici pour télécharger gratuitement le rapport complet de GeoPoll sur les résultats de cette recherche :

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Sampling and Methodology

The Socio-Political Barometer survey for the fourth quarter of 2022 was conducted across all provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo from 15 November to 18 December 2022. A cluster sampling methodology was applied to draw a sample of 9,253 households across the DRC by means of Geospatial Information System (GIS) based selection. This sampling method is an improvement on wave 1 in terms of accuracy and representativeness, and reflects our ongoing commitment to constantly improving our work in challenging markets. A randomly selected adult member of each household completed a 20-minute face to face interview with a trained and experienced professional interviewer.

Results

The Socio-Political Barometer data collected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in November and December 2022 surfaced the following key metrics and trends.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo today, what do you think WORKS?

Access to free education continues to be the leading driver of optimism in the DR Congo. This wave also reveals improved perceptions of the country’s security, roads, schools, hospitals and sporting prowess. Potentially, the IGF has featured less in the news this quarter, and hence is less endorsed by respondents.

What do you think DOES NOT WORK?

Unemployment and insecurity are the most cited dysfunctional areas, closely followed by the state of the country’s roads and rising prices. All are cited by more respondents this wave than in July. Security and roads appearing as both functional and dysfunctional areas suggests these are polarizing issues in Congolese society – a positive experience for some and negative for others.

How satisfied are you with President Tshisekedi’s current mandate? Would you grant him a second term at the ballot box?

Only half the respondents believe there is another candidate worth considering, and when pressed to specify, 29% of those said they had not decided who that candidate might be.

For the small minority that were willing to express support for a challenger to President Tshisekedi the leader is Martin Fayulu with 18% support, followed by Moise Katumbi on 16%. Kabila, Matata and Bemba are vying for third place at around 4-5%

Closing Insights

It is not possible to determine if the apparent improvement in perceptions both of the country and the President are due to shifts in perception over time or a result of the improved sampling approach we took. Either way, President Tshisekedi would seem to be in a somewhat stronger position at this point in time than we initially estimated.

Look out for our full report in January 2023.

About GeoPoll

GeoPoll is a full-service market and social research agency that conducts surveys via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), short message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and mobile web/mobile application communications. We also conduct online and offline qualitative research.

GeoPoll is currently operational on five continents and employs 104 permanent staff worldwide. Our headquarters is in Denver, Colorado, USA, with a second US office in Washington, DC focused on international development projects. Our largest office is our operations and project management hub in Nairobi, Kenya, with on the ground representatives and coordinators working across eight additional countries. GeoPoll also contracts with carefully selected and rigorously trained partners across the world who bring additional skills, expertise, technology, and capacity as required.

As a member of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR), the Marketing and Social Research Association (MSRA) Kenya, the Pan African Media Research Organisation (PAMRO), the Society for International Development (SID), and the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), GeoPoll adheres to the strictest ethical and research standards and employs highly rigorous methods and approaches to data collection and analysis.

Our surveys have been cited and analyzed in several highly respected academic journals, such as the Journal of International Public Opinion Research and the Journal of International Development.

For more information contact [email protected].

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The same questionnaire was administered to different respondents by research firm Bureau d’études, de Recherches, et de Consulting International at the same time, and results were compared. Findings demonstrated that both firms reached the same general conclusions, with some differences, mostly based on differing education levels in each sample.

Major findings included that the potential for violence following elections is extremely high, with 48% saying they would “most certainly and/or probably” protest against rigged elections. Over 50% do not trust courts to fairly resolve electoral disputes. Data also found there is a highly engaged electorate in the DRC, with over 90% saying they intended to vote in the election. According to the survey, opposition candidate Martin Fayulu was the favorite candidate.

Full results are available in the report produced by NYU’s Congo Research Group, which is available for download here.

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