As a follow up to GeoPoll’s earlier reports on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa, we conducted the GeoPoll Year-End survey evaluating the year that has been and the outlook for the coming year.

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

When asked about the coronavirus pandemic’s biggest challenges, finances stood out as the overwhelming challenge (55%), with ‘staying home’ trailing at 23% as the second biggest challenge. This finding could be tied directly to findings surrounding income changes since June, as 79% stated that their income had decreased since June. This percentage is even higher than the 76% who reported income decreases in our previous study. In addition, 65% state that they are more concerned with paying their expenses now than in June 2020, when 71% were already more concerned with paying expenses than pre-COVID.

These findings demonstrate that even though restrictions have been loosened in all six countries studied, the pandemic’s economic impacts continue to be felt and, for many, have worsened over time. While all countries reported high levels of income decrease, Kenya had the highest percentage of respondents who said their income had decreased a lot compared to June 2020, at 64%.

Even though restrictions have been loosened in all six countries studied, the economic impacts of the pandemic continue to be felt and for many have worsened over time – GeoPoll

Changes to Consumer Habits Due to COVID-19

Given the decreases in income observed, it is not surprising that we also observe changes in spending patterns, with consumers focusing more on essential items than non-essentials. In addition, one of the effects of the pandemic has been a scarcity of products due to disruptions in supply chains, which has resulted in rising prices of various commodities. These factors could be some of the reasons most respondents (60%) in the GeoPoll study reported spending more this year compared to last year on essential items such as food, while just 23% are spending less.

The report also shows a large shift away from non-essentials, with 59% saying they are spending less on clothes and beauty products than last year.

In contrast with several other countries where online shopping has increased during the pandemic, it has dropped in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly 60% report that they are shopping online less frequently than last year, which could be related to the overall decrease in purchasing of non-essential items. Compared to the previous year, 45% report they are using mobile money less frequently on mobile money usage, while 21% say they are using mobile money at about the same rates and 35% are using it more regularly.

It must be noted that, as with other findings in this summary, some of the considerations vary from country to country. For example, while online shopping decreased overall, more respondents in Kenya and South Africa reported shopping online more frequently, and over half (51%) of those in Kenya said that they are using mobile money more than the previous year, while 42% in Mozambique reported increasing their mobile money usage.

To see the statistics breakdown for each country and demographic, refer to this interactive report.

2020 Holiday Spending

Consumer spending is also experiencing changes; as the holiday season approaches, McKinsey’s study in South Africa found ongoing reductions in discretionary spending and that 88% of households expect to spend the same or less on the holidays as they did last year.

The 2020 holiday season is expected to be impacted by COVID-19, both socially and economically. Countries like Kenya have restrictions on night movement, meeting numbers, and hospitality business operations in place and studies have found that those in South Africa and other countries are planning to spend less on the holidays this year than in the past. GeoPoll’s research found similar results, with 40% overall stating that they will spend much less than last year, and 28% stating they will spend a bit less. Just under a quarter of respondents report they will spend more on the holidays this year, indicating that retailers should expect a decrease in holiday spending in 2020.

Economic Predictions for Next Year

As 2020 comes to a close, GeoPoll also examined the outlooks for next year. GeoPoll asked about the length of financial impacts of COVID-19, finding that almost half (45%) think economic effects will last at least six months, and 27% believe that the economic impacts will last over a year.

Despite this, there are signs of encouragement regarding respondents’ perceptions of their finances. A big majority (65%) believe that their finances will get better in the next year, compared to just 17% who think they will worsen, and 51% believe their country’s economy will get better in the next year. In comparison, 26% believe it will get worse.

Conduct Further Research with GeoPoll

These findings on consumer behavior are part of GeoPoll’s report on the impact the coronavirus pandemic has had on various life spheres. Download the full report here or dive more in-depth into the full dataset with the interactive dashboard here.

GeoPoll conducts surveys globally through multiple mobile-based methods, remotely reaching any population. GeoPoll can conduct research to enable brands, international development organizations, and governments better understand realities on the ground, even in the face of the challenges the world is undergoing. To request more information on our capabilities or get a quote for an upcoming project, please contact us.

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This predicament is what brought organizations like Direct Pay Online, an online payment processor, into existence, yet many Africans still pay cash upon delivery for their online purchases due to worry about being scammed by the online retailer. Despite the solutions that have been developed to aid in paying for online purchases, e-commerce has not yet reached a prime across sub-Saharan Africa. In order to gauge participation in online shopping, questions were included in our recent study on financial services on the topic. In this report, we will share our findings.

Methodology

GeoPoll’s research experts distributed the questionnaire to respondents in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana. Surveys were conducted incrementally by region between July and September of 2019 via mobile web; thus, the data focuses on populations who have access to a mobile phone and basic internet services.

Survey samples had a total of 400 respondents per country—aside from Côte d’Ivoire, which had a sample of 250 respondents because of the mode of the survey and the Internet penetration in the country. The gender distribution in each country was 50% female and 50% male. Due to the survey topic, it was targeted to the youth population, with the majority of respondents coming from the 25-35 age group.

E-commerce Popularity in Africa

Survey respondents across the six countries studied were asked about the last time they made an online purchase of a product and the results largely varied by country.

Out of all six countries studied, Nigeria had the most reported online shoppers. 58% of Nigerian respondents indicated making an online purchase in the past month, while only 14% of respondents reported making an online purchase within the past 2-6 months. This data indicates that Nigerians are shopping online frequently rather than intermittently.

In contrast to Nigeria, Uganda had the lowest number of reported online shoppers. 57% of Ugandan respondents indicated that they had never made an online purchase before, which is almost exactly the opposite of Nigeria’s 58% of respondents that had made an online purchase within the past month.

In the next two sub-sections, we will take a look at what items were purchased online and through what platforms they were purchased in order to further explore the e-commerce markets in the countries studied.

Items Purchased Online

Those who had reported making online shopping purchases in the past were then asked to indicate the items they have purchased online through a select-all-that-apply style question. Overall, the most popular items purchased online were electronics and clothing items; however, each country had a unique distribution among purchase categories.

Kenyan respondents, for example, purchased more electronics than any other country studied by about 15%. In the electronics category, Kenya (64%) was followed by Ivory Coast (61%), and Ghana (46%).

Nigerian respondents, the group with the highest reported rates of online shopping, had the most diverse profile of purchases across categories. Nigerians indicated purchasing more alcoholic beverages, non-alcoholic beverages, home décor, hygiene, and automotive parts than any other country. This diversity in product purchases, coupled with the reported frequency of online purchases in Nigeria, can lead one to believe that the country has built a stronger culture around online shopping than the other countries studied.

Platforms used for e-commerce

The respondents who had indicated shopping online were also asked about the platforms they used to make their online purchases. The resulting data indicates that consumers are using large online retailers and social media sites to make purchases more than smaller independent online retailers.

Jumia was the number one most used online shopping platform in every country except Tanzania, while Facebook and Instagram secured 6 spots in the top 3 most used online shopping platforms. The apparent preference for large online retailers—like Jumia, Facebook, and Instagram—may be due to the issues seen in product delivery in the region. However, as infrastructure for package delivery continues to grow, online shopping will likely increase in popularity dramatically.

E-commerce in Africa: Takeaways

Although e-commerce is still not the most popular shopping method in sub-Saharan Africa, GeoPoll’s youth study on online shopping engagement revealed that there is a portion of consumers making online purchases in all of the countries studied. Electronics and clothing items are leading the movement in e-commerce so far, yet results from Nigeria hint that expansion across product categories could on the horizon for other sub-Saharan countries. Now, only time and further research will tell how the landscape of e-commerce will change in the coming years for SSA.

To stay on top of the changes as they happen, GeoPoll can facilitate a study like this one for your organization. Contact us to learn more today.

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