The economic slowdown caused by the pandemic has disproportionally impacted the most marginalized countries and individuals of the world. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the economic losses are expected to be much higher in emerging markets than in advanced economies. On an individual level, the virus has deepened inequality across sub-Saharan Africa with young and low-skilled workers, women and refugees bearing the brunt of the downturn.

Looking ahead, the opportunity to interrupt virus transmissions and initiate social and economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa largely hinges on the availability and distribution of vaccines. The pandemic, however, has also exposed global inequalities in health care. At this point there are simply not enough doses available to inoculate entire African nations in the near term. The spread of false information and conspiracy theories has also led to an increase in vaccine hesitancy, further complicating vaccination efforts.

After living with the pandemic for more than a year, many questions and uncertainties remain. As a follow up to GeoPoll’s 2020 reports on the impact of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, GeoPoll conducted a survey to assess the ongoing effects of the pandemic on respondents’ finances, spending, and health, their thoughts and concerns about the vaccine, and their hopes for the future. This report details the results from that survey.

The study was conducted in March 2021 in Côte D’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa. The main topics covered include:

• Changes to consumer finances, spending, and mobile money usage
• Perceptions about the government response to the virus and the trustworthiness of information available
• Anticipation about the availability and willingness to take the vaccine
• Adherence to public health measures and changes to mental and physical health

Findings from this study illustrate the ongoing disruption of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. Incomes and spending continue to fall since our study in November 2020, while prices have risen. The percentage likely to take the vaccine if it was available has decreased since November, as has optimism about when that might be. Despite these hardships, several positive trends surfaced in this study, including improvements in emotional and physical health.

Click below to download GeoPoll’s full written report, or view data in the interactive dashboard.

Data: Financial Impact, Government Response, Likelihood to Take the Vaccine, and more.

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There is also a question of how many people will be willing to get a vaccine right away; experts have said that around 80% to 90% of the population must have immunity to COVID-19 in order to reach ‘herd immunity’, but in countries such as the United States only about 60% are willing to take the vaccine right away. In Africa, where vaccine access has improved greatly in the past thirty years, the spread of false information and conspiracy theories has led to an increase in vaccine hesitancy, threatening to undo the progress that has been made.

With widespread vaccination a crucial factor in eradicating COVID-19, GeoPoll’s most recent study included several questions on vaccine hesitancy and the likelihood of populations to get a COVID-19 vaccine. The study was conducted in November, immediately following the news of Pfizer’s vaccine being at least 90% effective. Questions were administered by SMS to a nationally representative sample in Côte D’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Download the full report below or view the interactive dashboard of results here.

Vaccine Hesitancy in sub-Saharan Africa

In order to assess vaccine hesitancy, GeoPoll asked about vaccine safety and effectiveness and found that in terms of vaccine safety, a third of respondents ‘strongly agree’ that vaccines are safe, while an additional 21% ‘somewhat agree’ and 29% ‘neither agree or disagree’. Confidence in vaccine safety is highest in Nigeria and South Africa, where 41% and 35% respectively strongly agree that vaccines are safe. Those in the DRC were the most likely to report that they strongly disagree that vaccines are safe, at 23% of respondents. There were no large differences observed by age and gender.

Examining vaccine effectiveness, we find similar results, with a third reporting they ‘strongly agree’ vaccines are effective and 24% somewhat agreeing with the same statement. Again those in Nigeria were most likely to strongly agree with vaccine effectiveness, at 40%, while those in DRC were most likely to strongly disagree. Overall slightly more respondents either strongly or somewhat agree that vaccines are effective than they agreed with vaccines being safe.

Comparing this question to findings around trust in government information, we found that those who were less confident regarding their government’s information also reported lower levels of agreement with vaccine safety. Of those who strongly disagreed that their government was providing truthful information, 30% strongly agree that vaccines are safe, while 37% who strongly agreed that their governments information is truthful say the same regarding vaccine safety.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance in South Africa, Kenya and more

GeoPoll also asked ‘If a COVID-19 vaccine was available for free today, would you get it as soon as possible?’ and found that in total 42% stated they would ‘definitely’ get it as soon as possible, while ‘20%’ stated ‘probably’. This question showed interesting trends by country, with those in Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa reporting relatively high levels of likelihood to take a COVID-19 vaccine, while those in DRC and Côte D’Ivoire are less likely to take a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible. Although the youngest age group, those aged 15-24, reported slightly lower levels of enthusiasm regarding taking a COVID-19 vaccine than older age groups, the differences were quite small, with 59% of the youngest group and 62% of the oldest group reporting they would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ take a vaccine as soon as it was available.

When asked what concerns respondents most about a COVID-19 vaccine, vaccine safety was listed first, at 35%, followed by the ability for everyone to get the vaccine at 27%. Interestingly even in countries which had higher levels of agreement with vaccines being safe in general, such as Kenya, vaccine safety is the top concern when asking specifically about the COVID-19 vaccine. The youngest age group was most likely to be concerned over safety of the COVID-19 vaccine, with 37% of those aged 15-24 listing vaccine safety as their top concern.

Similarly to the findings regarding overall vaccine safety and effectiveness, likelihood to take a vaccine is impacted by trust in government information. Of those who either strongly or somewhat disagreed that their government was providing truthful information, 34% would definitely take a vaccine right away, while of those who agreed with their government’s information, 47% would definitely take a vaccine as soon as it’s available.

COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Delivery

GeoPoll also examined when populations believe a vaccine will be available to the public, finding that the largest group, 39%, reported being unsure, while 31% believe a vaccine will be available between January and June 2020, and only 5% believe that a vaccine will not be available until 2022. Those in South Africa believe a vaccine will be available to the public the earliest, with 39% in South Africa believing that a vaccine will be available between January and June 2020, while respondents in the DRC are least sure about when a vaccine will be widely available.

Vaccine distribution is being heavily discussed as vaccines go into production, with most reports stating that healthcare workers and elderly or vulnerable populations will be the first to receive a vaccine. GeoPoll’s study found that, while 29% believe healthcare workers will receive a vaccine first, 23% believe that ‘those who can pay’ will get it first. Results for this question were also quite different by country; in the DRC and Côte D’Ivoire, the largest groups of respondents believe that everybody will get access to a vaccine at once, while those in Kenya, Mozambique and Nigeria believe healthcare workers will get first access, and in South Africa the highest percent, 31%, think a vaccine will go to those who can pay. By gender, we find that males are slightly more likely than females to believe a vaccine will go first to those who can pay.

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These findings, along with the findings on income decrease and mental health outlined in our full report, demonstrate that those who are being hit the hardest by COVID-19 impacts are most willing to take a vaccine as soon as it is available. In the coming months, more research is needed on vaccine hesitancy along with perceptions of the COVID-19 vaccine as it begins to be distributed. GeoPoll conducts surveys globally through multiple mobile-based methods, including Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing and SMS. To request more information on our capabilities or get a quote for an upcoming project, please contact us.

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South Sudan is the newest widely recognized country in the world, and is also one of the world’s poorest countries, with over 80% of the population living on under $1 a day. According to the UNDP, 43% of the total population is severely food insecure, however the issues with food security in South Sudan are getting worse. Five years of civil war in the area has left more than half of the country completely reliant on humanitarian aid. According to the World Food Program, at the beginning of 2018 the levels of hunger and malnutrition reported were at a historic high. Although organizations like the World Food Program are working to combat the starvation, there are many challenges to face. Lack of infrastructure and political conflict in the country make it difficult and dangerous to reach communities with life-saving food. Additionally, the approaching rainy season will create more challenges for reaching the starving people in South Sudan with food aid. For these reasons, it is more important than ever to understand the issues with food security in the country.

Given GeoPoll’s experience with conducting food security and agriculture related surveys, in early June 2018 we ran a remote mobile survey to gather information that could help assess food security concerns across South Sudan. Due to high levels of illiteracy in the country, this survey was conducted using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI), in which live interviewers call mobile phones from a call center. In only three days, GeoPoll was able to collect 100 survey responses which shed light on the current food security situation in the country. While this study was exploratory in nature, the results show a high level of food insecurity and demonstrate the need to conduct further research in the area.

Survey Methodology

GeoPoll utilized CATI surveys to gather on-the-ground data on food insecurity in South Sudan. The survey ran for three days— May 31^st, June 4^th, and June 5^th—of 2018. GeoPoll was able to reach respondents in all of the 10 states of South Sudan. The questionnaire asked respondents to provide information about three different time frames—the past 7 days, the past 30 days, and the past 6 months—as well as general questions about demographics and food security in the respondent’s communities.

Results

The survey data collected indicates high food insecurity in South Sudan. Respondents largely indicated that there are limited food supplies and high food prices. The majority of food markets around the country are operational yet are struggling to provide enough provisions to feed their communities. Results suggest that increased demand for the available fare is driving prices up beyond what is affordable for the majority of the respondents: 96% of the people surveyed reported that in the past six months they have not had enough money to purchase food and other basic needs, and just under half of the respondents reported that more than 80% of their communities are lacking enough food to eat because of widespread loss of food stocks, lack of income, or lack of job opportunities.

Results highlights

Question: How many households in your community are lacking food due to widespread loss of food stocks, lack of income, or lack of livelihood opportunities? Would you say…1) more than 80 percent, 2) between 50 and 80 percent, 3) between 50 and 20 percent, 4) less than 20 percent.

Results:

Respondents overwhelmingly reported that people in their communities have insufficient quantities of food due to widespread loss of crops, low income, or low job opportunity. 47% of respondents replied that more than 80% of their communities are suffering. Only 4% of respondents could say that less than 20% of their community was struggling. The results from this study indicate that the majority citizens of South Sudan are currently struggling with hunger.

Question: In the past 30 days, how many days did your household reduce the number of meals eaten in a day due to lack of food/money? (Reply number of days from 0-30).

Results:

The majority of the individuals surveyed responded that every day within the past 30 days their household skipped meals due to lack of food sources and money. 11% of respondents reduced the number of meals exactly half of the time period. However, 13% of respondents did not report any reduction of daily meals and 12% of respondents only had to reduce daily meals once within the past thirty days.

The polarized results from this survey question could be due to a small sample size. Further research could allow for more comprehensive understanding of this topic.

Question: What is the food status like in your community? (open ended response).

Results:

http://https://public.chartblocks.com/c/5b33a7181ea0f69e26669279?t=8e458f754f89456

33% of responses indicate that food is currently very expensive in their community. Only 1% of the people surveyed suggest that the status of food in their community is healthy—and those respondents only see the status of food in their community as okay because they are receiving food from aid organizations.

Conclusions 

GeoPoll’s area experts are confident that food insecurity in South Sudan is likely due to on-going conflict and political instability in the country. Respondents to GeoPoll’s recent survey reaffirm that the level of food insecurity in South Sudan is widespread and significantly impacting the lives of the majority of citizens in the area. The results from this recent exploratory survey establish need for future research on food security in the region, and demonstrates that CATI is a worthwhile method for collecting such data remotely.

Due to the conflict and violence that is plaguing South Sudan, remote data collection was essential for this project. Face to face data collection would have been almost impossible. Mobile data collection through CATI was essential because it allowed for information on the country without the need to send on-the-ground researchers into remote and conflict-ridden areas of South Sudan. Fortunately, GeoPoll has vast experience in conducting food security and agriculture-related research across sub-Saharan Africa. To learn more about our experience in food security, please contact us.

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For the marketing research industry, the explosive growth of mobile phone use presents a new opportunity to gain access to people and data that might otherwise be inaccessible using different modes of data collection. IVR is a widely used mode for collecting large amounts of data through voice calls. This mode is especially useful in places like Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, where literacy rates are low, and respondents may not be able to read or respond to SMS-based or online surveys.

According to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), Sub-Saharan Africa is among the regions with the lowest literacy levels at 64.0% in 2015. Over 75% of the world’s 781 million illiterate adults are found in South Asia, West Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, and women represent almost two-thirds of all illiterate adults globally.

Traditionally in developing countries, polling exercises have been carried out through in-person interviews.  However, making in-person contact with individuals with low literacy levels is often expensive and time-consuming.  Data can easily be lost, compromised, and/or fabricated. By harnessing the growing power of the mobile phone through a service such as GeoPoll, which specializes in research in the developing world, IVR and other mobile survey modes can be used reach those in remote areas and conflict zones, while achieving results that are consistent with those from more traditional methods.

According to Market Research World,  IVR systems are often integrated with other computer based surveying platforms when used for research. This means that survey responses can be captured in many ways – from online surveys and mobile phones, to kiosks. IVR surveys are ideally suited to high volume surveys and based on the project, over traditional CATI and telephone based interviewing, as they do not require the training of survey enumerators.

Key Features of IVR Surveys

Some of the benefits of using IVR in data collection for market research purposes include:

• Decreasing the time required to conduct a survey from months to days
• Capturing real-time data directly from the respondent
• Accessing millions of people regardless of geographic area
• Effectively capturing large sets of data and analyzing trending information
• Remotely conducting surveys in areas of low literacy rates

Considerations When Conducting Surveys via Interactive Voice Response:

• Surveys are typically 10 questions total. Surveys can be longer based on needs but short, clear surveys have proven to be most effective.
• Response rates for IVR can be quite low – to achieve your desired sample size, you will need a large respondent base or to partner with a company like GeoPoll that can provide sufficient sample

When conducting an IVR survey with GeoPoll, our team will provide expert guidance and assistance:

• Survey questions can be customized to fit specific project needs. GeoPoll provides assistance in reviewing the questions and optimizing for the mobile phone.
• Results are delivered within days of a survey run, typically within one week. GeoPoll delivers both raw datasets organized by respondent and high-level pivot table analysis.

GeoPoll’s Experience with IVR

GeoPoll uses Interactive Voice Response (IVR) or voice recorded surveys which enable respondents to answer a voice call and respond to survey questions by pressing 1, 2, or 3 on their key pad. Once mobile phone users pick up the call, they opt-in to complete the survey and receive airtime credit as an incentive upon completion.

GeoPoll has successfully completed hundreds of IVR surveying projects in countries around the world. This direct experience has taught GeoPoll the technical and operational nuances of IVR, and we work closely with partners to ensure questions and methodology are appropriate for IVR. Use cases for IVR surveys have included conducting one-off surveys, collecting baseline data, monitoring indicators, engaging communities, and tracking beneficiaries of aid.

GeoPoll can conduct IVR surveys as part of a multi-modal project or as a standalone method in any country throughout the world, and we have expertise in conducting IVR surveys in Africa, Asia Latin America, and the Middle East.

If you would like to know more about how IVR could help you collect data from hard to reach regions, please get in touch with us by filling in the form below.

Image credit:  https://mypaymentsavvy.com

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MDD-W is an important indicator used to determine whether women between the ages of 15-49 are consuming adequate levels of micronutrients. From October 2016 – April 2017, GeoPoll conducted five rounds of SMS surveys on MDD-W. To read more about the collaboration between GeoPoll and mVAM in Malawi, be sure to check out mVAM’s latest blog post: “Trial and Error: How we found a way to monitor nutrition through SMS in Malawi.”

 (Image courtesy)

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The US Agency for International Development (USAID) recognizes this problem, and their Development Credit Authority (DCA) helps fill this financing gap in emerging markets by taking on some of the banks’ risk and by partially guaranteeing loans for borrowers.  Since its creation in 1999, DCA has made $3.1 billion dollars of credit available to borrowers across 71 countries, and has only seen a 1.85% default rate on these guaranteed loans.  Many borrowers who banks previously classified as unqualified for a loan have gone on to get larger loans without USAID’s guarantee, and seeing the success of USAID guaranteed borrowers and industries makes banks more likely to make similar loans to those not partnered with USAID.

To identify those in need of loans and the reasons that borrowers may be apprehensive about requesting loans, USAID DCA conducts research in the regions they work in. But, as with many other industries, face-to-face surveys can be slow and costly, so DCA recently partnered with GeoPoll to conduct surveys through text message in Nigeria. Over two days in May 2014, the DCA worked with GeoPoll to administer more than 750 mobile phone surveys across 15 targeted states in Nigeria to ask agriculture- related businesses about access to finance. Participants were screened to identify those who worked in agriculture and had the authority to take out a loan for their work, which allowed DCA to gather information from a very specific group of respondents.

The study found a major gap in local financing available for these businesses.  In particular, while 75% indicated that they would like to take out a loan in the next five years, only 25% have tried.  Most of these business are newer and 40% are seeking 100,000 NGN (~$620 USD) or less, but are deterred by high collateral requirements and not knowing how to contact loan officers.

With this knowledge, USAID can more strategically and confidently invest in the agriculture sector responsible for feeding 170 million Nigerians, or nearly 20% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa. The below infographic has more facts and figures on the findings from this survey.

For more information on our on-going collaboration with USAID/DCA see our full case study, and stay tuned for future posts about other upcoming mobile surveys in areas of monitoring and evaluation with USAID/DCA.

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A new report by the UN International Telecommunications Union found that while fixed-line telephone connections have been declining over the past five years, mobile penetration is growing fast, particularly in developing areas, and the number of mobile subscriptions is expected to surpass seven billion this year.  By taking advantage of these connections, we can reach people more quickly, to drive action on food security that is faster and more targeted.

In just the past few weeks, GeoPoll has been asking simple questions on important topics like health, energy, and food security to mobile users in six African nations: Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda.  On food security, defined as reliable access to affordable and nutritious food, users were asked “In the last 7 days, did any members of your household go to bed hungry? Reply 1) Yes 2) No.” This one-line question, asked every day to a sample of users, gives us vital information on not only how many people are suffering from hunger, but also where they are, what ages and genders are more likely to be affected, and how food security changes in a region over time.

The results from just two weeks of data collection can already provide high-level insights into the differences in food security across countries, and as the survey continues to run it will collect data that can be broken down by district, age, gender, and more, for a truly granular look into hunger in a country. From the data that has already been collected, we get a snapshot look into the lives of those living in hunger.  For example, it was found that 39% of respondents across Kenya reported that they or a member of their family had gone to bed hungry in the past week, and 34% of Ghanaians said the same.  This data allows us to more accurately identify which countries or regions are in need of immediate assistance, and enables aid organizations or governments to deliver supplies quickly.  

As this survey collects more data over the next months, it will demonstrate when food security changes suddenly: this can occur when a region enters its dry season, or if a conflict has decreased access to food.  This type of daily data provides us with an unprecedented, granular look into global hunger, and will drive faster, more effective action from organizations like the WFP, who GeoPoll has worked with in the Democratic Republic of Congo and now in Kenya and other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  We still have a long way to go in the fight against hunger, and the ultimate solution will include the alleviation of poverty through economic development, agricultural productivity, and policy reform.  Data is only a piece of this puzzle, but accurate information can play an important part in predicting trends on not only food security situations, but also poverty reduction, which will help us end hunger once and for all. 

 Amy Sweeney is the Director of Client Business Development at GeoPoll, where she collaborates with potential clients and partners such as the World Food Programme, USAID, and implementing partners on incorporating mobile data collection into projects and programs. She previously worked at Chemonics International and spent four years in Central and Southwest Asia, serving as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan and working in Afghanistan and Turkey.

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