According to our Black Friday Straw Poll, which ran in December 2017 among 2,031 respondents in Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, Jumia still remains the most preferred e-commerce vendor. Fifty-six percent of our poll respondents have shopped on Jumia before.

Interestingly, a significant number of online shoppers utilize Facebook groups. At 32%, Facebook is the second leading online retailer in the leading e-commerce regions. Through informal entrepreneurs who utilize this leading social media channel to either sell through their groups or similar interest groups, Facebook is proving to be a formidable albeit odd player in this space.

Mobile phones have become ubiquitous in Africa. The Sub-Saharan region is also home to some of the least internet connected nations in the world. Beyond the low internet penetration levels in some countries and the high data costs, e-commerce is portraying an opportunity for online retailers to reach the youthful African consumer population. Despite the numerous challenges that this nascent industry has faced in the region, there is a silver lining thanks to the expected rise in the use of technology in the content. Global e-commerce concepts such as the Black Friday sales are also picking pace in creating awareness among the target market as brick & mortar stores join in seeking a piece of this pie.

E-commerce Uptake

E-commerce in Africa is far from a success story. As experienced by the 4 major players, replicating the success of Amazon in Africa has been a pipe dream that many initial entrants realized as soon as they set shop. However, for those who stuck it out, the benefits are slowly trickling through.

Seventy-four percent of the 2031 unique respondents indicated they have purchased an item online before. Among the 74% of respondents who have purchased an item online before, a majority (22%) are those who buy something only once a month.

Amidst the slow growth, online retail outlets still grapple with their biggest challenge yet. Trust. Among the 26% (531) of respondents who indicated they had never purchased any items online, the top reasons cited were that they did not trust the site (29%), and they did not know how the sites worked (20%). This trend was also observed at the individual country level.

The low trust levels towards online retails can be demonstrated by the most preferred payment options. For respondents of our straw poll, when they shop online, a majority prefer to pay in cash upon delivery at 50%. Mobile money comes in a far second at 21% and debit cards a distant third at 14%. In Kenya and Nigeria, 52% and 51% respectively, of respondents indicated they preferred cash on delivery.

Black Friday Sale

Only 49% of the respondents who took the Poll had participated in the Black Friday sale month which ran from Nov 13th to Dec 13th for most online retailers.

The most effective channel for creating awareness among online consumers is social media. 55% of respondents who participated in the Black Friday sale month said they first found out about it through that medium. Websites and TV ads were the second and third common mediums of awareness at 15% and 13% respectively.

The sale is now attracting brick & mortar retail stores with many hoping to cash in on the new craze. According to the respondents who participated in the Black Friday sale month, 70% indicated they visited an e-commerce website while 30% indicated they went to an offline store/outlet. In Kenya and Nigeria, 75% and 73% respectively went to an e-commerce website to do their Black Friday shopping. In South Africa, clothing and footwear was more popular among online shoppers.

The most sought-after items during this sales promotion were electronics and accessories at 34%, household appliances (21%), and clothing and footwear (19%). In Kenya, electronics and accessories ranked the highest at 46%. In Nigeria, the most sought-after item was electronics and accessories at 29%.

Previous Black Friday Poll

In 2016, we carried out a similar straw poll among 1,251 respondents in Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Ghana and Nigeria aimed at analyzing the impact of the Black Friday sales promotion on the uptake of e-commerce in the region.

Based on this past poll, there has been a significant change in awareness, however, trust is still a huge hurdle that online retailers in Africa are yet to overcome. The industry still holds a lot of promise both for consumers and retailers.

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According to a recent KPMG report, in seven Sub-Saharan countries, e-commerce makes up one to three percent of GDP, and is predicted to make up 10 percent of total retail sales in key markets by 2025, with 40 percent annual growth over the next 10 years. The total retail economy is projected to grow rapidly, along with the population as a whole and its spending power per capita

In November this year, the words ‘Black Friday’ were trending keywords on Google in Kenya, Nigeria & South Africa in the last week of the month just before the American Thanksgiving holiday.

For a long time, the American Black Friday sale has often been viewed in Africa as a very foreign concept. On 17^th November, a week before Black Friday, we conducted a Rapid Poll using the GeoPoll mobile application asking Kenyan respondents if they knew about the Black Friday Sale and if they would be participating.

Many were not aware and the few that were did not have disposable money to spend. This short poll among Kenyans led us to conduct this survey among Africans in the Sub-Saharan countries that have exhibited some growth of ecommerce. We sought to find out if, by adopting the Black Friday sale concept, African E-commerce business have managed to somehow overcome the numerous challenges facing the nascent industry.

Experience with online shopping
South Africa, Nigeria & Kenya are the leading countries in online shopping in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to our survey, In South Africa, a majority (60%) buy items online every few months. This is the same in Kenya (45%) and Nigeria (66%)

70% of Kenyans and Nigerians, and 60% of South Africans have at one time tried to buy something online, however, most Ghanaians (55%) and Ugandans (51%) have never bought anything online. According to the NextWeb, there is a direct co-relation between access to the internet and the rise of online shopping.  South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya have the highest levels of internet and smartphone penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa according a 2015 Pew Global research survey titled Cellphones in Africa: Communication lifeline

Although many have tried online shopping, in all other countries except South Africa, a majority only tried it once. Among the top reasons sighted why many in these 5 African countries do not frequently use online shopping sites are; lack of trust, shipping costs, unsupported payment methods and because a friend had a bad experience. Other reasons filled were lack or reliability of some sites in delivery and the purchase process. Others feel that there is no need as the items are readily available at their local store.

Jumia not the King in SA
According to the survey, Jumia is one of the most known online shopping sites in sub-Saharan Africa. It is however not as popular in South Africa and Ghana as it is in other countries. Most South Africans shop online either at Bid or buy, Takealot, Zando or Spree.  In Ghana, Jumia competes for the top spot with Amazon with Alibaba coming in a close 2^nd. In Nigeria, the number two site after Jumia is Alibaba. In Kenya, the number two site is Kilimall.

Payment Methods
The change of tact by online shops on payment methods has seen a significant impact in the space. According to our survey, a majority of shoppers in Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda paid on delivery for items bought online. However, in South Africa, most shoppers (50%) prefer to pay using their debit card and a further 26% use their debit card for online purchases. Cash on delivery in S.A is also the preferred mode of payment at 20% compared to mobile money.

In Kenya where mobile money is hugely popular, it is the next preferred payment option (42%) after cash on delivery. This underscores the distrust most shoppers have with online stores. Most would rather pay once they have actually received the item.

Logistics & customer satisfaction
According to a New Yorker article on e-commerce in Africa, Motor bikes have made a huge impact on the on delivery of goods by ecommerce sites. Due to this, many online shoppers are happy with delivery speeds in all the 5 countries.

Of all the things customers liked about their shopping experience, delivery and quality ranked among the top reasons for customer satisfaction. This is closely followed by cost.

The Concept of Black Friday
Last month, major African ecommerce sites such as Jumia, as well as some brick and motor stores participated in the American Black Friday sale. According to our survey, many Africans now understand the concept of Black Friday although it’s a concept that is yet to pick due to the challenges that ecommerce generally faces in Africa, namely, addressing, payment methods and trust as seen in our survey. There was some interest for this year’s sale. The term Black Friday was among the top Google trends in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa around the American Thanksgiving holiday with many Africans in these countries searching online for stores that had offers.

Black Friday & Cyber Monday Sale by Country
In Kenya, 55% of respondents participated in the Black Friday & Cyber Monday Sale with most buying mobile phones.  The most popular online store for Kenyans for the sale was Jumia which took 55% of online shoppers. In Nigeria, 60% participated in the online sale with 54% buying phones on Jumia.

In Ghana where the concept of Black Friday sale is yet to catch on, a majority (61%) did not participate in the sale. Although most online shopping sites were keen to sell beauty and accessories, clothing & footwear and TV sets, the items did not pique the interest of many online shoppers except in South Africa where most online shoppers went for Clothing (31%), beauty & accessories (24%) and household items at 24%.

Although most of the popular online stores in Africa focused mostly on electronics in their last sale, items like bicycles, power adapters, games, wedding gowns and manual sewing machines made it to the list of items bought during this period.

Black Friday sale timing
According to our survey, a majority of the African’s in the 5 countries did not have enough money to spend during the Black Friday sale which happens on the fourth Thursday of November and this year round it started on November 27^th. Of those who did not participate in the sale, a majority said they did not have enough money. The other reasons given for not participating was lack of awareness and lack of time to actually check out what the stores had on sale.

Due to the lack of awareness and the bad timing, most did not spend more than 100 USD in purchases

Black Friday Vs Christmas
Christmas shopping in December is still the most popular holiday activity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the respondents we asked, (75%) said they would shop more if Black Friday sales were during the Christmas period.

When we asked where they would prefer to shop if physical outlets participated in the black Friday Sale, a majority said they would prefer to shop online.

According to Quartz, E-commerce businesses are simply fighting to stay afloat right now. As seen in our survey, there is still prevalent lack of trust in ecommerce sites. As noted by Quartz, even Amazon took years to turn a profit. The serious questions being raised however are on exactly how quickly Africa’s consumer class is actually growing.

The GeoPoll survey was conducted using the GeoPoll mobile application to 1,251 respondents in Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Ghana and Nigeria.

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On 17^th November 2016, GeoPoll  conducted a Rapid survey on Black Friday using the GeoPoll mobile application. A sample  of 103 men and 137 women filled the questionnaires on their spending habits during the Black Friday period which occurs in the month of November before the Thanksgiving US holiday.

From the rapid survey, these were the insights.

Black Friday Advertisements
The data showed that the dynamic ads most marketers use to re-target their audiences may not work with regard to black Friday deals advertisements.  Different target audiences change their shopping habits during this period from the normal wants to needs.

Online Shopping budget
Respondents were asked how they had prepared for the shopping experience and 44% said that they have saved towards it. What most marketers should still take notice of before counting  their chickens, is 77% said that they were willing to spend between 10K -20K while 100K and above spenders  accounted for only 2% which means most of the users are still not willing to spend on high end items although the prices will be quite reasonable. This is despite the fact that 36% of the respondents are looking to buy electroincs.

Online Shopping trends among women and Men
The shopping spend of the respondents also highlighted that the 25% of the female demographic is looking to spend on electronics while a good 24% will also be spending on male fashion items. Naturally, marketers would decide to market household items to women who are assumed to be the main household shoppers but should not be the case as only 17% are looking forward to household shopping.

50% of men unsurprisingly, will be looking to get electronics with men’s fashion closely following with 32%. A twist of events came in when only a mere 2% said that they are willing to get women’s fashion which is a massive contrast to 24% of women who are looking to  indulge in shopping for men’s fashion. Surprising enough is the fact that 9% of the male respondents mentioned that household items would be their priority. Notice how household items are a priority to men as compared to women’s  fashion?

Kenya’s Leading online shopping site

Jumia is  the king of online malls in Kenya with 72% of the respondents stating that that would be their ideal site. Killimall comes in with 23% bragging rights of the online stake while Rupu had 5% of the respondents backing it. Ultimately, the site that will wear the crown will still be the site that has the highest number of last click attribution to sale other than just consumer’s presumptuous shopping tendencies.

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