GeoPoll

World Cup 2026 Report: Interest, Viewership and Betting in Africa

Newton Adika — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 15:14:26 +0000

The FIFA World Cup 2026 kicks off this summer across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the first edition to feature 48 teams and the largest in the tournament’s history. For Africa, the stakes are especially high: ten African nations have qualified, the most the continent has ever sent to a single World Cup.

This study mirrors our 2022 FIFA World Cup report, which tracked African sentiment and viewing behaviour during the last tournament. GeoPoll surveyed 3,274 people across Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Cameroon, and Egypt in June 2026, to capture how the continent is experiencing this moment, from viewing habits and team loyalties to betting behaviour and broadcast awareness.

Key Findings

Near-universal intent to watch the 2026 World Cup: An average of 94% of respondents across the seven countries say they plan to watch or follow the tournament, peaking at 97% in South Africa and 96% in Ghana.
Strong general football interest across markets: Average interest ranges from 7.3/10 in Cameroon to 8.0/10 in Egypt, showing consistently high baseline engagement with the sport across all countries surveyed.
Television remains dominant but multi-platform viewing is rising: 79% plan to watch on TV, while 62% will use mobile phones, 39% free online streaming, and 34% social media platforms—highlighting increasingly fragmented consumption habits.
High level of sports betting engagement: 52% of respondents have placed a football bet in the past 12 months, rising to 64% in Kenya, 60% in Ghana, and 58% in South Africa, but dropping to 25% in Egypt.
Football is highly social, with home viewing dominant: 73% plan to watch from home, while 9% will watch in pubs/restaurants and 19% engage in betting during matches, showing football as both a private and social experience.
Europe dominates World Cup winner predictions: France leads at 19%, followed by Spain (14%), Portugal (12%), with Brazil (9%) and Argentina (8%) trailing; in Africa, local optimism remains strong, including 81 Egyptian respondents predicting Egypt will win.

Passion for the game

Football is more than a pastime in the seven countries surveyed, it is a significant part of daily life. Ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, GeoPoll asked respondents to rate their interest in football and in the World Cup on a scale of 1 to 10. Interest in football is consistently high, ranging from 7.3 in Cameroon to 8.0 in Egypt, highlighting the sport’s widespread appeal across the continent. Egypt’s strong score reflects the country’s deep football culture, fueled by club competitions, continental tournaments, and national team ambitions.

Interest in the 2026 World Cup is even higher in most markets, with South Africa and Egypt leading at 8.4, followed by Ghana (8.2), Uganda (8.0), and Kenya (7.9). Cameroon is the only country where World Cup interest (7.2) is slightly lower than general football interest, likely due to the Indomitable Lions not qualifying for the tournament. Even so, the findings show that football remains deeply embedded in the lives of fans across all seven countries.

One theme stands out clearly: the World Cup lifts interest beyond its everyday level. Fans who might describe themselves as casual football followers during the domestic club season become fully engaged when the global tournament arrives. This tournament-driven uplift is consistent across demographics and geographies, and it has direct implications for brands, broadcasters, and advertisers looking to reach African audiences at peak attention.

Intent to Watch the 2026 World Cup Across Africa

Perhaps the most striking finding in this survey is the near-universal intent to watch or follow the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Across the seven countries, an average of 94% of respondents say they plan to engage with the tournament in some form. This peaks at 97% in South Africa and 96% in Ghana, while Egypt records 90% still exceptionally high, yet the lowest in the sample.

These figures reflect a broad-based cultural phenomenon rather than a narrow or urban-centred interest. GeoPoll’s methodology captures respondents across urban, peri-urban, and rural areas, as well as across gender and income groups, underscoring the depth of national-level engagement with the tournament. When compared with actual viewership from the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, where 85% of respondents reported watching matches, the 2026 intent figures suggest growing enthusiasm rather than saturation. Uganda stands out with 88% reported viewership in 2022, rising to a projected 95% intent for 2026, reinforcing the upward trajectory in World Cup engagement across the continent.

How Fans Across Africa Will Follow the 2026 World Cup

Television remains the dominant way of following the World Cup across the continent, with 79% of respondents saying they plan to watch matches on a TV set. This underscores the continued strength of broadcast and pay-TV infrastructure in most markets. However, mobile phones are quickly becoming a major companion screen, with 62% of respondents planning to follow matches on their devices. In Nigeria, this shift is already more advanced, with 66% of respondents citing mobile phones as their primary viewing device, reflecting the rapid expansion of affordable smartphones and mobile data, particularly among younger and lower-income groups.

Digital and social platforms are also playing an increasingly important role. Around 34% of respondents plan to follow the tournament via online streams and social media channels such as YouTube, WhatsApp, and X (formerly Twitter), with Kenya leading in this category due to strong mobile internet penetration and highly engaged digital audiences. Meanwhile, radio remains a key access point for 14% of respondents, particularly in markets such as Uganda and Cameroon, where it continues to provide an essential and widely accessible form of live football coverage.

Paid vs Free and the Streaming Question

When it comes to platforms for accessing live coverage, the picture across the seven countries is more evenly split than device usage alone might suggest. Paid TV leads with 49%, followed closely by free-to-air television at 40%, free online streaming at 39%, and paid online streaming at 33%. This distribution highlights a nuanced reality: Africa is not a single, uniform media market, but a patchwork of differing access models and viewing behaviours.

Country-level differences further reinforce this diversity. South Africa stands out with a strong reliance on paid TV (66%), reflecting its established satellite and subscription ecosystem, while Cameroon and Ghana lean more heavily on free-to-air broadcasts, making FTA rights critical for reaching mass audiences in those markets. The near parity between free-to-air TV and free online streaming is particularly notable, signalling the growing importance of digital access. A substantial segment of viewers, especially younger, urban audiences, already turn to online platforms for live football, whether ad-supported or unofficial. For rights holders and broadcasters alike, the implication is clear: reaching audiences effectively requires a multi-platform approach that mirrors how fans already consume content.

Nigeria is the most mobile-first viewing market in the survey. 66% of Nigerian respondents will follow the World Cup on their phone; compared to 45% in South Africa, where paid TV is dominant.

Home Remains the Center of World Cup Viewing

Home viewing overwhelmingly dominates across all seven countries surveyed, with 73% of respondents saying they plan to watch the 2026 World Cup from home. However, the remaining quarter of viewers reveals important insights into how football functions as a shared social experience across the continent.

Restaurants and pubs account for 9% of viewing overall, underscoring the role of public venues as key gathering points for major matches. This is especially pronounced in Nigeria, where communal viewing in commercial spaces is a well-established matchday tradition. Ghana records the highest rate of outdoor and public-space viewing at 9%, reflecting the popularity of large-screen setups in urban centres where football is often experienced collectively. Workplace viewing remains limited at 2% overall, but still present across markets, an understated reminder that during key kick-off times, productivity across some offices may quietly compete with matchday excitement.

Half-Time as a Window into Fan Behaviour

Half-time offers a revealing snapshot of viewing behaviour beyond the 90 minutes of play. Across all countries, the most common activity is remaining engaged with match commentary and replays (54%), showing that for many fans, the break is not a pause in attention but an extension of the viewing experience. Close behind, 38% of respondents say they turn to their mobile phones—checking scores, sharing reactions, following analysis, or scrolling through social media for highlights and real-time commentary.

Betting activity is also a notable part of the half-time experience. One in five respondents (19%) report placing or reviewing bets during the interval, rising to 27% in Kenya and 19% in South Africa, where in-play and half-time betting markets are more actively integrated into the viewing ecosystem. This reinforces the growing convergence between football consumption and sports betting, where watching and wagering increasingly operate as part of a single, continuous experience.

African Team Allegiances Point to Strong Home Pride

With 10 African nations qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, continental team allegiance emerges as one of the most revealing dimensions of the survey. GeoPoll asked respondents which African teams they are supporting, uncovering a mix of strong national loyalty and broader pan-African solidarity.

Home-country support is dominant where teams have qualified. Egypt records the highest level of domestic backing, with 92% of respondents supporting the Pharaohs, followed closely by Ghana at 89%, reflecting deep national pride and emotional investment in their teams’ return to the global stage. South Africa’s Bafana Bafana attract support from 72% of respondents, a solid but comparatively lower figure that reflects a more diversified national sports landscape where football shares attention with rugby and cricket.

In countries without a qualified team, support shifts decisively toward regional favourites. Senegal emerges as the continent’s default second team, leading in Kenya (58%), Cameroon (63%), and Uganda (51%), while also holding strong appeal in Nigeria (41%). Morocco also enjoys widespread admiration, consistently ranking among the top choices across non-qualifying countries, with 38% support in Nigeria alone. Senegal’s prominence is closely linked to its status as reigning Africa Cup of Nations champions and its roster of globally recognised players, while Morocco’s continued popularity builds on its historic 2022 World Cup semi-final run. Together, the two teams dominate the pan-African imagination, shaping a shared continental rooting interest beyond national borders.

Senegal is Africa’s adopted team. In every country without a side of its own in the tournament, Senegal is the most supported African nation — a continent rallying behind the Lions of Teranga.

Who Do Respondents Think Will Win the Tournament?

There is a clear distinction between who fans support and who they believe will actually win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. When asked to predict the eventual champion, a measure of football judgement rather than emotional loyalty, respondents overwhelmingly point to European teams as the most likely winners.

France leads the overall predictions at 19%, followed by Spain at 14% and Portugal at 12%. Brazil (9%) and Argentina (8%) remain the strongest South American contenders, but the balance of expectation firmly tilts toward Europe. France’s dominance is shaped not only by its recent football pedigree, including the 2018 World Cup triumph, but also by the strong visibility of players of African heritage such as Kylian Mbappé, Eduardo Camavinga, and Ibrahima Konaté, who resonate deeply with African audiences.

In Kenya, Uganda, and Cameroon, France is the most commonly predicted winner, while Nigeria leans toward Portugal, likely influenced by the global stature of Cristiano Ronaldo. Egypt stands out for its strong home optimism, with 81 respondents predicting Egypt will lift the trophy, an expression of national pride that persists even against global consensus.

Sports Betting is Now Embedded in Football Culture Across Africa

Sports betting in Africa has expanded rapidly over the past decade, driven by rising smartphone penetration, aggressive operator marketing, and a young, mobile-first population deeply engaged with sport. The FIFA World Cup stands out as one of the most important moments in the sports betting calendar, and the data from this survey confirms just how embedded betting has become in the football-watching experience across several key markets.

Overall, 52% of respondents say they have placed a bet on football in the past 12 months, underscoring that this is no longer a marginal activity but a mainstream form of engagement with the game. Kenya leads at 64%, reflecting a highly developed betting ecosystem. Ghana (60%), South Africa (58%), Uganda (57%), and Nigeria (54%) also report high participation, all pointing to a strong regional integration between football fandom and wagering.

Egypt stands as a clear outlier at 25%, the lowest rate in the survey by a wide margin. This is shaped by a different regulatory and cultural environment, where gambling is heavily restricted and lacks the same app-driven normalisation seen in other markets.

Aware of World Cup TV broadcasters

GeoPoll measured broadcast awareness by asking respondents whether they know which channels in their country will show live FIFA World Cup matches. Across the seven countries, 74% of respondents said they know where to watch, indicating a solid majority—but also leaving 26% who are either unsure or unaware. For broadcasters and rights holders, this gap represents both a communication challenge and a clear opportunity to convert interest into confirmed viewership.

Awareness levels are relatively consistent across most markets, with Ghana and Uganda leading at 74%, followed closely by Kenya at 73% and South Africa at 72%. These are markets where broadcast rights are typically well publicised and where dominant pay-TV platforms help centralise messaging around a single access point. Cameroon stands out at the lower end, with 64% awareness, likely reflecting reduced urgency in the absence of its national team in the tournament, which diminishes the immediate incentive for fans to track broadcast details.

The remaining “not sure” group is particularly significant. In Egypt, 16% of respondents fall into this category despite the country’s high levels of football interest overall. This suggests a highly engaged audience that is still undecided on access details rather than disengaged from the tournament itself.

World Cup Brand Promotions Awareness

Brand associations with 2026 World Cup promotions are strongly concentrated among a few global players, with Coca-Cola dominating at 31%, more than double its nearest competitor. Adidas follows at 14%, while Nike ranks third at 8%, indicating that traditional sportswear giants remain highly visible but significantly behind the soft drinks category leader. Pepsi (5%) sits further back, alongside smaller shares for Hisense and Visa at 3% each, and DStv and MTN at 2% apiece. Overall, the results highlight the continued dominance of legacy global sponsors in shaping World Cup marketing recall, with Coca-Cola in a particularly powerful position across all markets.

Methodology/About this Survey

This exclusive survey was powered by GeoPoll’s AI platform; Tuucho run via the GeoPoll mobile application and WhatsApp in Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Cameroon, and Egypt in early June 2026 the sample size was 3,274, composed of random users between 18 and 50. Since the survey was randomly distributed to an and the results are slightly skewed towards younger respondents. All questions were self-administered via mobile survey in English, French and Arabic.

The findings show that football in the surveyed African markets is characterised by exceptionally high engagement, near-universal intent to watch the 2026 World Cup, and deeply embedded viewing habits that span TV, mobile, and social platforms. While television remains dominant, digital and mobile consumption is rising quickly, reflecting a shift toward more fragmented and multi-platform access. Betting is also a major feature of the football ecosystem, with over half of respondents having placed a bet in the past year and in-play wagering forming part of the matchday experience for many. At the same time, fandom extends beyond national borders, with strong support for both home teams and leading continental sides such as Senegal and Morocco. Together, these dynamics point to a highly engaged, digitally evolving, and commercially active football audience across Africa ahead of the 2026 World Cup.

Please get in touch with us to get more details about our capabilities, explore more on various topics in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

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Public Opinion on Proposed US-Supported Ebola Facility in Kenya

Newton Adika — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 06:58:04 +0000

In late May 2026, reports emerged that the United States government was in advanced discussions with Kenyan authorities to establish a quarantine facility in Laikipia County, designed to house American citizens and personnel exposed to Ebola in the region. The proposal triggered significant public debate, raising questions about sovereignty, public health risk, and the terms of Kenya’s engagement with foreign governments in health emergencies.

To understand where Kenyan public opinion stood on this issue, GeoPoll deployed a mobile panel survey between 29th and 31st May 2026, reaching 691 respondents across the country. The survey covered awareness of the Ebola outbreak, prior knowledge of the facility proposal, levels of support and opposition, the reasoning behind those positions, attitudes toward broader Kenya–US health cooperation, and the institutions and media channels Kenyans trust most when it comes to public health information.

The results are clear and consistent across the sample. Kenyans are well-informed about both the Ebola threat and the specific proposal, and they are largely opposed to it. But the nature of that opposition carries important nuance: it is rooted primarily in concern about disease transmission risk, not in anti-American sentiment or diplomatic grievance. And despite opposing this specific facility, a majority of Kenyans would support broader infectious disease preparedness cooperation with the United States.

Key Findings

Awareness of both Ebola and the proposed center is very high. 97% of respondents had heard of the current Ebola outbreak, and 92% were already aware of the Laikipia facility proposal before taking this survey.
Opposition to the center is strong and decisive. 71% oppose the Kenya government allowing the center, 61% strongly. Only 26% express any level of support.
Health risk is the dominant concern. 45% of multi-select reasons cite the center as a health risk that could spread Ebola in Kenya. Sovereignty concerns (17%) and the view that Americans should be treated at home (15%) also feature prominently.
Most respondents (64%) are specifically concerned about the risk of disease spread; safety and security concerns follow at 15%.
54% do not believe the center would strengthen Kenya’s healthcare system overall.
On broader US partnership, Kenyans are more divided: 54% would support Kenya partnering with the US on infectious disease preparedness, while 28% oppose it, suggesting the objection is specific to this facility rather than to US engagement generally.
93% say communities near the proposed center must be consulted before implementation. 81% are very concerned about Ebola misinformation in Kenya.
TV News (31%), Ministry of Health announcements (20%), and social media (17%) are the most trusted information sources on the center.

Ebola Outbreak Awareness

An overwhelming 97% of respondents reported awareness of the current Ebola outbreak, while only 3% indicated they were not aware. This near-universal awareness suggests a highly informed public, indicating that opinions on the proposed quarantine facility are likely based on informed understanding rather than uninformed or reactive sentiment.

Perceived Risk to Kenya

Overall, 89% of respondents believe Kenya faces some level of risk from future Ebola or other infectious disease outbreaks. Among them, 66% consider the risk to be high. Only 1% believe there is no risk. This strong perception of risk provides important context for attitudes toward the proposed quarantine facility. For most respondents, Ebola is not viewed as a distant threat limited to the Democratic Republic of Congo, but as a real and present risk to Kenya.

Against this backdrop, concerns that a US-run quarantine facility could itself become a potential source of transmission are more understandable. It also helps explain why health and safety concerns, rather than political considerations, are the primary driver of opposition.

Awareness of the Proposed Laikipia Center

Respondents were asked whether they had heard about the proposal to establish a US-run quarantine centre in Laikipia for Americans exposed to Ebola prior to the survey. Overall, 67% reported having heard a lot about the proposal, while 25% had heard a little. Only 8% said they were hearing about it for the first time.

These findings indicate that the proposal had already achieved broad public awareness at an early stage of discussion. This level of visibility suggests the issue had moved beyond specialist health or diplomatic audiences and was already present in mainstream media and public discourse in Kenya.

Attitudes Toward the Center

Overall, 71% of Kenyans oppose the government allowing the US-run quarantine centre. The intensity of this opposition is notable: 61% “strongly oppose” the proposal, while 10% “somewhat oppose” it. This indicates a firmly held position among a large majority, rather than a divided or uncertain public.

On the other side, 26% express support for the proposal, including 17% who “strongly support” and 9% who “somewhat support” it. A further 4% are unsure. While support is not insignificant, it remains well below majority level.

The imbalance between strong opposition (61%) and strong support (17%) points to a deeply polarized but asymmetrical sentiment, with opposition significantly more entrenched. Such strongly held views are typically less responsive to communication alone and often reflect concerns that would require substantive changes to the proposal itself to meaningfully shift public opinion.

Main Reasons for Opposition to the Proposed Ebola Facility

The dominant concern is clearly health-related. A significant share of responses (45%) point to the belief that the facility could increase the risk of Ebola spreading in Kenya. This reflects an epidemiological fear rather than a political stance, respondents are primarily worried about safety and exposure.

More secondary considerations introduce a political dimension. A smaller but notable share of responses cite concerns about national sovereignty (17%), reflecting the view that the proposal undermines Kenya’s autonomy. Another 15% feel that individuals from the US should be managed within their own country rather than through a facility located on Kenyan soil. While important, these views appear to build on top of, rather than replace, the underlying health concerns.

Among those who express support, the reasoning is similarly structured and pragmatic. Some point to potential funding opportunities and stronger bilateral ties with the United States (10%). Others highlight the value of improved preparedness and faster response to future outbreaks (6%), as well as Kenya’s potential role as a regional health hub (6%). Rather than reflecting unquestioning approval, these perspectives suggest a cost-benefit assessment that simply arrives at a different conclusion from the majority.

Specific Concerns

When asked what concerns, if any, they had about an Ebola center being established in Kenya, a clear majority, 64% pointed to the risk of disease spread as their primary concern. This is not a generalised unease, but a specific fear tied to a clearly understood mechanism of harm: the possibility of local transmission of a highly infectious disease.

Beyond this, 15% raised concerns related to safety and security, reflecting worries about the physical environment surrounding a facility associated with high-risk infectious cases. Issues such as foreign influence and control (8%) and lack of transparency (7%) follow, suggesting a secondary layer of institutional and governance-related apprehension. By contrast, only 4% cite misuse of funds, a relatively minor concern despite its prominence in broader public debates around foreign-funded initiatives.

Taken together, the pattern is striking: concerns are driven far more by health and safety considerations than by financial skepticism. Only 3% of respondents reported having no concerns at all, underscoring the extent to which the proposal has generated widespread apprehension across the population.

Impact on Kenya’s Healthcare System

Proponents of hosting the quarantine facility have argued that Kenya would benefit through broader health system strengthening, including infrastructure investment, capacity building, knowledge transfer, and an enhanced role in regional public health leadership. Yet this rationale does not appear to be resonating strongly with the public.

A majority of respondents (54%) do not believe the center would strengthen Kenya’s healthcare system. In comparison, 31% believe it would, while 15% remain undecided. The balance of opinion therefore tilts clearly toward scepticism.

This gap may reflect several underlying dynamics, from limited clarity in how the benefits have been communicated, to broader mistrust of externally driven health initiatives, or the stronger influence of prevailing concerns around disease risk. Whatever the drivers, the results point to a clear disconnect between the intended policy narrative and public perception, one that will need to be addressed more directly if support is to be built.

Most Trusted Institution for Health Emergencies

When asked which institution they trust most to oversee public health emergencies in Kenya, respondents expressed a clear hierarchy of confidence. The Ministry of Health stands out by a wide margin, selected by 56% of respondents. International health organisations, including the WHO and similar bodies, follow at 20%, while research institutions and universities account for 7%. County governments and local health workers trail at 4% each.

This pattern has direct implications for the debate around the Laikipia facility. It indicates that public legitimacy in managing health emergencies is anchored primarily at the national level, with the Ministry of Health serving as the central point of trust and authority.

The relatively low trust in county governments is also telling, particularly in the context of Laikipia as a devolved unit. It suggests that, on issues of national-scale health emergencies, respondents place significantly greater confidence in central government institutions than in county-level structures, reinforcing a preference for centralized leadership in moments of high-stakes public health decision-making.

Support for Kenya–US Partnership on Disease Preparedness

One of the most strategically significant findings from the survey is the clear divergence between opposition to the specific facility and attitudes toward broader Kenya–US health cooperation. While 71% of respondents oppose the Laikipia center, a majority (54%) support Kenya partnering with the United States on infectious disease preparedness in general, including 36% who support it strongly and 18% who support it somewhat.

By contrast, 28% oppose such broader cooperation, indicating a smaller segment of the population that takes a more categorical stance against foreign involvement in Kenya’s health infrastructure. However, this remains a minority view. Overall, the prevailing public sentiment reflects conditional openness: support for international collaboration on health security, coupled with clear resistance to this particular arrangement.

Community Consultation

On whether communities living near the proposed center should be consulted before implementation, the survey records one of its strongest areas of consensus. An overwhelming 93% of Kenyans believe consultation is necessary; including 86% who say it should “definitely” happen and a further 7% who say it should happen “somewhat.” Only 5% feel that consultation is not necessary.

This is not a contested issue in public opinion. It reflects an almost universal expectation that local communities must be engaged meaningfully before such a project proceeds.

Recent protests in Nanyuki highlight the intensity of public concern surrounding the proposed US-supported Ebola quarantine facility at Laikipia Air Base. Hundreds of residents took to the streets to oppose the project, expressing fears about potential health risks, a lack of transparency, and Kenya’s role in hosting a facility intended for individuals exposed to Ebola from outside the country. Demonstrators argued that local communities had not been adequately consulted and questioned why Kenya had been selected for the facility despite having no reported Ebola cases.

Concern About Misinformation

The misinformation findings highlight the information environment surrounding the Laikipia debate, and it is clearly a volatile one. A large majority of respondents (81%) say they are very concerned about misinformation and fear related to Ebola in Kenya, while a further 13% are somewhat concerned. Only 6% report little or no concern.

While this level of concern does not measure the actual prevalence of misinformation, or the extent to which individuals have personally encountered it, it does signal something important: the public perceives the information space around Ebola as uncertain and potentially unreliable. In such a context, trust becomes a central issue. Credible and consistent communication from key sources, particularly television news and the Ministry of Health, is therefore essential in shaping public understanding and confidence.

Most Trusted Information Sources

When it comes to trusted sources of information about the Ebola Center specifically, traditional and official channels dominate public reliance, though the distribution of trust is notably fragmented across multiple platforms.

Television news emerges as the leading source, selected by 31% of respondents, underscoring its continued centrality in shaping national-level risk perception and public debate. This is followed by Ministry of Health announcements at 20%, highlighting the importance of official government communication in providing authoritative guidance during health-related controversies.

Social media accounts for 17% of trust, reflecting its dual role as both an information source and a space where narratives about the facility are actively shaped and contested. Meanwhile, 12% of respondents rely on doctors and other health professionals, indicating meaningful — though comparatively limited — trust in clinical expertise as a source of reassurance and interpretation.

Radio news remains relevant at 11%, particularly as a secondary mass communication channel, while international organisations account for 8%, suggesting a more cautious or selective public trust in external institutional actors. Community leaders register the lowest level of reliance at just 1%, pointing to a surprisingly minimal role for local authority figures in shaping perceptions of this issue.

Taken together, the pattern reflects a public that primarily depends on national media and government messaging, while simultaneously drawing on a diverse set of secondary sources, with no single channel fully dominating the information ecosystem.

Methodology/About this Survey

This exclusive survey was powered by GeoPoll’s AI platform; Tuucho run via the GeoPoll mobile application and WhatsApp in Kenya between between 29 and 31 May 2026 the sample size was 691, composed of random users between 18 and 50. Since the survey was randomly distributed to an and the results are slightly skewed towards younger respondents. All questions were self-administered via mobile survey in English.

This study examines public perceptions in Kenya regarding the proposed US-supported Ebola quarantine facility in Laikipia, with a broader focus on attitudes toward international cooperation in infectious disease preparedness and the information environment shaping these views.

The aim is to understand how Kenyans perceive the proposed facility, the extent to which they support or oppose it, and how these views relate to broader acceptance of Kenya–US health collaboration. It also explores expectations around community consultation and the role of trust and misinformation in shaping public opinion.

Overall, the study seeks to provide insight into the balance between public health security priorities, sovereignty concerns, and trust in both government and information sources in the context of emerging infectious disease preparedness.

Please get in touch with us to get more details about our capabilities, explore more on various topics in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

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A decade on the front line: what mobile data has taught us about responding to Ebola and other outbreaks

Frankline Kibuacha — Thu, 28 May 2026 15:08:52 +0000

From West Africa in 2014 to the Bundibugyo outbreak in DRC and Uganda in 2026, GeoPoll has spent more than a decade collecting data inside disease outbreaks when other methods cannot reach affected communities. Here is what we have learned and what we offer to partners responding now.

On 15 May 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared its 17th Ebola outbreak. Within 48 hours, the World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of late May, more than 1,200 suspected and confirmed cases had been reported with over 260 deaths. The outbreak is caused by Bundibugyo virus, a rare Ebola strain for which no approved vaccine yet exists. Imported cases have been confirmed in Uganda, Germany, and the Czech Republic.

For GeoPoll, the news triggered an immediate question that has driven our work for the past twelve years: how do we collect reliable, representative data from communities that field teams cannot safely or easily reach, fast enough to inform a live response.

This article walks through GeoPoll’s published experience supporting responses to Ebola, COVID-19, cholera, and Mpox across Africa and Asia, and lays out what we offer partners now.

Where it began: West Africa, 2014

The 2014 to 2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak killed nearly 12,000 people across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. It also became the moment that mobile data collection in humanitarian crises moved from promising idea to operational reality.

When the outbreak peaked, GeoPoll was finalising its SMS survey system in Liberia. As we documented in the Journal of Health Communication, that timing meant we could begin running surveys immediately. We did not have to build infrastructure from scratch in the middle of a crisis. The same is true today. Our platform, panel, and mobile network operator integrations are in place in the affected countries before the next outbreak begins.

What we did across the West Africa outbreak

In the years that followed, our SMS and CATI surveys in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea covered a range of programme questions. Several of these projects are documented in published case studies and peer-reviewed work:

Food security tracking with the United Nations World Food Programme. Over three months in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea, we collected indicators on food prices, wages, and household coping. The work adapted the reduced Coping Strategies Index for mobile delivery, with prior validation showing no significant difference between mobile and face-to-face collection. Case study.
Market functionality monitoring for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. Panel-based SMS surveys with market traders in Sierra Leone and Liberia, tracking market sizes, operating costs, stock levels, and agricultural activity through ten rounds. Case study.
Long-term economic impact surveys for the USAID Bureau for Africa and FHI360. Thirteen rounds of nationally stratified surveys in Liberia and Sierra Leone between January and June 2015, tracking income, employment, food prices, and schooling. Sample base of 1.8 million in Sierra Leone and 1.6 million in Liberia, with 1,000 completes per country per round. Case study.
Health communications research with Johns Hopkins University in Liberia. SMS-based community dialogue and rumour tracking, supporting Ebola risk communication and community engagement. Documented in the academic literature.
Community perceptions in Sierra Leone with Keystone Accountability. Assessing how the population viewed the international community’s response in real time.

Across the West Africa outbreak, GeoPoll reached more than 100,000 people. The methods worked because the people we surveyed already had access to mobile phones, our network operator integrations meant respondents incurred no cost to participate, and the SMS and voice modes did not require enumerators to enter quarantine zones or treatment areas.

What we learned

Three operational lessons from 2014 to 2016 still shape how we run surveys during outbreaks today:

Keep surveys short. On SMS, response rates drop sharply beyond 12 to 15 questions. The constraint forces discipline on what we ask.
Pre-code open-ended questions. 160-character limits and noisy environments mean structured response options outperform free text for most use cases.
Always offer airtime credit on completion. Small incentives (we have typically used the local equivalent of about USD 0.50) significantly improve completion rates among low-income respondents.

Beyond West Africa: outbreaks in the DRC and the eastern corridor

Between 2018 and 2020, the DRC experienced two more large Ebola outbreaks in the eastern part of the country, primarily in North Kivu and Ituri. GeoPoll deployed mobile surveys during these outbreaks as well, focused on socio-economic impact and information flow. By the time we entered the COVID-19 era in 2020, we had effectively built a playbook for outbreak response work and applied it across an expanding set of geographies and health threats.

Our experience now spans the major health emergencies of the last decade:

Ebola: Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea (2014 to 2016) and the DRC (2018 to 2020)
COVID-19: 30+ countries across sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia
Cholera: Zambia (2024) and other African geographies
Mpox: DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Central African Republic, and Kenya (2024)
Other infectious disease and vaccine work: malaria, polio, measles, yellow fever, and routine immunisation studies across multiple African countries

COVID-19: when the playbook scaled

When COVID-19 reached sub-Saharan Africa in 2020, the methods we had refined for Ebola scaled up overnight. Between 2020 and 2022, GeoPoll ran self-funded and partner-funded research across more than 30 countries, covering economic impact, food security, vaccine acceptance, and risk communication. Findings from our November 2020 vaccine acceptance study across Cote d’Ivoire, the DRC, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa were archived publicly in ICPSR and used by researchers and policy makers globally.

We continued tracking vaccine perceptions across multiple rounds. The April 2021 follow-up, reported on the GeoPoll blog, found that fewer than half of respondents (48 percent) felt they had been given enough trustworthy information about the vaccine, a finding that mirrored what we were seeing on the ground.

The COVID work cemented two principles we now apply by default in outbreak research:

Multi-mode is non-negotiable. SMS reaches the broadest base but limits depth. CATI handles longer instruments and complex skip logic. Mobile web reaches smartphone-heavy segments. In-person fills gaps for offline populations. The best outbreak studies combine modes by design, not as a fallback.
Trust matters more than reach. A representative sample of people who refuse to answer honestly is not a sample. We invest in respondent identity verification, plain-language consent, and call-centre training in local languages because trust at the moment of the interview drives data quality.

Mpox: turning prior experience into rapid mobilisation

When mpox began spreading through Central and Eastern Africa in 2024, GeoPoll moved into the response within weeks. As we wrote at the time, the parallels with earlier outbreaks were clear: a disease moving faster than traditional surveillance, vaccine hesitancy reshaping its trajectory, and demand from public health partners and pharmaceutical companies for granular, real-time data.

Through late 2024 we ran mpox vaccine acceptance and behaviour monitoring rounds across six African countries: DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Central African Republic, and Kenya. The DRC mpox vaccine acceptance work has since been published in peer-reviewed medical literature and remains one of the largest mobile-based mpox studies on record from that period.

Cholera Zambia: a public-good data drop in the middle of a crisis

In early 2024, while Zambia was managing a cholera outbreak that had infected more than 21,000 people and caused over 700 deaths, GeoPoll ran a self-funded nationwide CATI survey to understand public awareness, water and sanitation access, and behaviour change. The findings were released as a public report on ReliefWeb with an interactive dashboard. The study used a stratified random sample of 400 respondents drawn from our Zambia panel, delivered in English, Bemba, and Nyanja from our Lusaka call centre.

The point of that work was not commercial. It was to demonstrate something that we believe matters more than any single study: in a crisis, the right response is to gather and share data quickly, even when there is no client paying for it.

What we offer partners responding to the 2026 outbreak

The capability that an organisation needs during an outbreak is not abstract. It is a short list of practical things, done quickly and well. Here is what we offer.

Mobile data collection across multiple modes

We run surveys through the channels respondents actually use. Most outbreak studies blend these by design:

SMS surveys: Free-to-user via mobile network operator integrations. Best for broad reach, short instruments, and reaching low-income or rural populations. Used heavily in our Ebola, COVID, and cholera work.
Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI): Live calls from our call centres in Nairobi, Lusaka, Dar es Salaam, Johannesburg, and Panama City. Best for longer instruments, complex skip logic, sensitive topics, and qualitative depth.
Mobile web (link-based): Surveys delivered via WhatsApp, SMS link, or other distribution. Best for smartphone-heavy segments, image-based questions, and longer self-completion.
GeoPoll App: Our smartphone application supports longer panels and incentivised tracking studies.
In-person interviewing: Where offline populations or sensitive observations are needed, we deploy trained field teams. Used selectively in our outbreak work, primarily for qualitative and validation purposes.

Reach across affected geographies

GeoPoll has more than 5 million profiled panelists and access to over 250 million individuals across 64 countries. In the geographies most relevant to the current Ebola outbreak, our panel and infrastructure are operational today:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: active panel and call-centre capacity. French, Lingala, Kiswahili, and Kinande supported.
Uganda: active panel, English and major local languages.
Adjacent at-risk countries: Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Kenya all have operational panels.

Speed when speed matters

Outbreak response cannot wait three months for fieldwork. Typical timelines for GeoPoll outbreak studies:

Activity	SMS / mobile web	CATI
Questionnaire design and review	2 to 3 days	2 to 3 days
Translation and localisation	1 to 2 days	1 to 2 days
Pilot and adjustment	1 to 2 days	1 to 2 days
Full field period	2 to 5 days	5 to 10 days
Initial findings	1 to 2 days after field	2 to 3 days after field
Total from kickoff to insight	1 to 2 weeks	2 to 3 weeks

Methodology that holds up to scrutiny

Outbreak research is read by epidemiologists, donors, and ethics committees. Our default methodology is designed to pass that scrutiny:

CDC-aligned KAP frameworks. We design knowledge, attitudes, and practice instruments to be compatible with established disease-response frameworks.
Stratified random sampling. By gender, age, and geography. We report margins of error and confidence intervals consistently.
IRB experience. We have participated in institutional review board processes with universities and research partners. Our research follows ESOMAR and WAPOR ethical standards.
Transparent reporting. Every study reports its sample size, margin of error, languages, mode, and field period. We do not hide methodology.

Senselytic for real-time qualitative analysis

Outbreaks generate a lot of qualitative signal: open-ended responses, call-centre notes, social listening, focus group transcripts. Senselytic, our AI-powered qualitative analysis tool, helps partners extract patterns from this material in hours instead of weeks. We used it to support analysis on multi-country COVID and mpox studies, and it is a core capability for the current Ebola response.

Two ways partners can engage with us

For the current Bundibugyo outbreak, we are offering two complementary engagement options. They can stand alone or run in parallel:

1. Commissioned research

Bespoke studies designed around a single partner’s questions. Suitable when you have specific decision needs, geographic priorities, or contractual reporting requirements. Examples we are equipped to run today include vaccine acceptance and intent, risk communication effectiveness, healthcare-seeking behaviour, rumour and misinformation surveillance, food security and economic impact in affected zones, and case investigation support.

2. Ebola Outbreak Omnibus Survey

A shared, nationally representative DRC survey where multiple organisations contribute custom questions and receive their own answers plus common themes. Costs are shared, fielding is faster, and results are comparable across participating organisations. Suitable for partners who need data but do not require a full standalone study. A parallel Uganda omnibus will run if there is sufficient interest.

Specification	DRC Omnibus
Sample size	1,000 completes, nationally representative
Margin of error	Approximately 3.1% at 95% confidence
Modes	Smartphone and WhatsApp lead, SMS and CATI fall back
Languages	French and Lingala lead, Kiswahili and Kinande added in eastern provinces
Field period	7 to 10 days
Custom questions per partner	Configurable, typically 5 to 10
Cost model	Shared across participants, per-question pricing

Get in Touch

Bundibugyo Ebola has no approved vaccine. The response will succeed or fail on case finding, contact tracing, risk communication, and community trust. All four depend on understanding what people in affected areas actually believe, know, fear, and need. That understanding cannot be assumed and it cannot be sampled from clinic registers alone. It has to be collected from people, in their own language, on a platform they already use.

GeoPoll has been collecting that kind of data through every major African outbreak of the last twelve years. The infrastructure is in place. The methodology is documented. The team is mobilised. We are ready to support partners working on this response, from public-good monitoring to bespoke programme evaluation, from rapid omnibus participation to long-term tracking studies.

In every outbreak we have worked on, the lesson has been the same: speed compounds. Decisions made on Day 7 with imperfect data are usually better than decisions made on Day 30 with perfect data. We are built to deliver on Day 7.

To learn more, discuss commissioned research, or to participate in the Ebola Outbreak Omnibus Survey, contact us.

The post A decade on the front line: what mobile data has taught us about responding to Ebola and other outbreaks appeared first on GeoPoll.

Football 2026 Fan Behaviour, Media Consumption & Tournament Predictions

Newton Adika — Fri, 15 May 2026 19:20:54 +0000

This report presents findings from the GeoPoll Africa Football Survey 2026, a five-country study conducted in May 2026. The survey explored the depth and nature of football fandom across Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique, and South Africa, covering media consumption habits, league and club preferences, tournament predictions, fantasy football participation, live match attendance, and sports betting behaviour.

Fieldwork was conducted at the peak of the 2025–26 European football calendar, during the closing weeks of the English Premier League and La Liga seasons, and in the lead-up to the UEFA Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal on 30 May 2026 in Budapest. This timing ensured that respondent engagement with the sport was at its highest, producing rich and timely data on fan sentiment and preferences.

The findings offer brands, broadcasters, rights holders, and sponsors a data-driven view of how football is consumed across five of Africa’s most important markets, and where the key differences and opportunities lie.

Key Findings

Football is the clear #1 sport across all five markets, with 91–96% followership rates, reinforcing its dominance in African sports culture.
Television remains the leading platform for football news and live viewing, though social media is rapidly growing and already leads in Ghana.
The English Premier League is the most preferred league in four markets, while La Liga leads in Mozambique.
Barcelona is the favorite to win La Liga across all surveyed markets, with support ranging from 70–86%.
South Africa is the only market predicting Arsenal to win the UCL final, while all other countries favor PSG.
Kenya is the most commercially engaged football market, leading in match viewing, fantasy football participation, and betting activity.
Ghana has the lowest stadium attendance (43%) but the highest desire to attend matches in the future (53%).
Mozambique shows the widest gender gap in betting, with 71% of men actively betting compared to 27% of women.

Football as the Dominant Sport

Across all five countries surveyed, football stands out as the undisputed dominant sport. Between 91% and 96% of respondents actively follow the game, with Kenya and Nigeria recording the highest engagement levels at 96%. Ghana and South Africa follow closely at 91%, underscoring football’s near-universal appeal across the region. These findings confirm that football is far more than just a sport in these markets, it is a central part of everyday culture, resonating across different ages, education levels, and locations.

Football’s popularity significantly surpasses that of all other sports. While basketball and athletics attract moderate interest in select markets, no other sporting category comes close to matching football’s reach or influence. For brands, broadcasters, advertisers, and content creators, the data reinforces football as Africa’s most powerful platform for mass audience engagement and consumer connection.

National Team Loyalty

National team followership is remarkably strong across all five markets, with engagement levels exceeding 89% in every country surveyed. Mozambique records the highest level of support at 92%, closely matched by Kenya and Nigeria at 92% each, while Ghana follows at 91%. South Africa posts the lowest figure at 90%, though this still reflects an exceptionally high level of national team engagement.The findings highlight the deeply emotional and identity-driven nature of football fandom across Africa. Even among fans who primarily follow European club football, loyalty to national teams remains firmly rooted. For sponsors, broadcasters, and rights holders, this presents a unique dual opportunity: leveraging the global popularity of European club competitions while also tapping into the strong local passion surrounding international tournaments such as the Africa Cup of Nations and FIFA World Cup qualifiers.

How Fans Follow Football News & Commentary

Television remains the leading source of football news, analysis, and commentary across four of the five markets surveyed, with Nigeria recording the highest TV reliance at 84%, followed closely by Kenya at 81%. However, social media continues to rapidly close the gap in every market and has already overtaken television in Ghana, where both channels stand at 72%, signaling a major shift toward digital-first football consumption. This trend highlights a broader transformation in how fans engage with football content, particularly among younger and more connected audiences, with important implications for media strategy and advertising investment across Africa.

Radio also maintains strong relevance in key markets, particularly in Nigeria (46%) and Kenya (27%), reflecting the enduring influence of traditional broadcast infrastructure and the accessibility of audio-based content. Meanwhile, sports betting platforms are emerging as increasingly important engagement hubs, especially in Mozambique (37%), Nigeria (29%), and Kenya (21%). Beyond wagering, these platforms are becoming active destinations for live updates, statistics, predictions, and fan interaction, further blurring the line between sports media and betting ecosystems. This growing convergence presents significant commercial opportunities, while also raising important regulatory and responsible gaming considerations.

Community-driven communication channels remain highly influential across all markets. WhatsApp groups, alongside conversations with friends and family, continue to shape how fans discuss and consume football content. Mozambique (32%) and Ghana (29%) report the highest reliance on these interpersonal networks, reinforcing the deeply social and community-oriented nature of football fandom in Africa. The findings point to strong potential for brands, broadcasters, and football organizations to leverage WhatsApp-based campaigns, fan communities, and peer-to-peer engagement strategies to build deeper audience connections.

Live Match Viewing

Pay TV, specifically DSTV and SuperSport, is the leading live match viewing channel in four of five countries, with particularly strong penetration in Mozambique (66%), South Africa (58%), and Ghana (53%). This confirms that subscription sports broadcasting continues to dominate the live match experience across much of the continent, even as digital alternatives gain ground.

Nigeria is the exception, where free-to-air television leads at 64%, a likely reflection of lower pay TV penetration and the broader reach of terrestrial broadcast infrastructure in the country. Streaming services and apps rank second or third in Kenya (46%) and South Africa (34%), pointing to a more digitally mature viewing audience in these markets where mobile data affordability and smartphone penetration are more advanced.

Social media live updates are widely used as a real-time supplement to traditional viewing, particularly in Mozambique (45%), Nigeria (43%), and Ghana (41%). Bar and fan viewing centre attendance is also notable in Mozambique (38%) and Kenya (28%), indicating that communal match viewing remains a culturally embedded experience in these markets.

Weekly Viewing Volume

Kenya stands out as the most intensive live football viewing market by a clear margin. An impressive 67% of respondents watch three or more matches per week, including 15% who watch six or more, representing the highest “heavy viewer” segment across all five countries. This level of consistent engagement positions the Kenyan audience as particularly valuable for advertisers, broadcasters, and sponsors seeking frequent and sustained exposure to football content.

At the other end of the spectrum, Mozambique shows the most casual viewing pattern. Just 42% of respondents watch three or more matches weekly, while a majority (52%) limit their consumption to one to two matches per week, indicating a more selective and episodic engagement style.

Ghana and Nigeria sit in a middle range, with approximately 45–55% of respondents watching three or more matches weekly. This suggests a balanced mix of casual and regular viewers, offering both reach and moderate frequency opportunities for media planners.

These variations in viewing intensity across markets highlight the importance of tailoring media strategies, particularly in terms of frequency, scheduling, and campaign saturation—to match the distinct consumption behaviours in each country.

Leagues Followed

The English Premier League is the most followed football league in four of five countries, with followership rates that range from exceptional (96% in Kenya, 91% in Nigeria) to strong (83% in Ghana, 82% in South Africa). The EPL’s pan-African dominance is a product of decades of broadcast investment, the global profiles of its clubs, and its large number of African players in visible roles. For the EPL and its clubs, Africa represents a fan base of enormous size and considerable commercial potential that remains underdeveloped from a direct monetisation standpoint.

Mozambique is the one market where La Liga leads. At 81% followership, La Liga edges the EPL (78%) in Mozambique, likely reflecting the country’s Lusophone cultural ties and the Portuguese language’s proximity to Spanish football content. This makes Mozambique a distinctive market where La Liga clubs, particularly Barcelona and Real Madrid, may find stronger natural brand equity than their English counterparts.

UEFA Champions League followership is strong across all five countries (46–71%), confirming that the pan-European knockout format captures a large and engaged secondary audience in addition to domestic league fans. Local African leagues record meaningful followership in South Africa (37%) and Mozambique (38%), where domestic football plays a more prominent role in the sports media landscape.

2025–26 English Premier League Title

Arsenal is the predicted EPL champion across all five countries surveyed. Support for the Gunners is strongest in Nigeria (67%) and Ghana (63%), markets where Arsenal has historically commanded strong followership. Manchester City receives its most competitive support in Mozambique (48%) and South Africa (45%), where City’s recent trophy haul may have translated into stronger brand recognition and supporter identification.

The consistency of Arsenal’s lead across diverse markets, spanning East, West, and Southern Africa, reflects both the club’s broad continental fan base and respondents’ assessment of the on-pitch competition at the time of fielding. These predictions carry commercial implications for sponsors and partners of both clubs seeking data-driven evidence of their brand’s reach and appeal in African markets.

UEFA Champions League Final: PSG vs Arsenal

PSG is the overall favourite to win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League final in four of the five markets surveyed. Kenya gives PSG its most commanding lead (61%), followed by Mozambique (55%) and Nigeria (54%). Ghana is the most divided, with PSG leading narrowly (47%) and the highest “not sure” rate (10%) of any market, reflecting genuine uncertainty and possibly a more even split in club loyalties.

South Africa stands apart as the only country where Arsenal is the clear favourite (55%). This finding aligns with South Africa’s historically strong Arsenal support base and the country’s deeper immersion in English football culture, driven in part by stronger pay TV penetration and historical broadcasting ties to the UK. It also suggests that Arsenal’s marketing presence in South Africa has been particularly effective at converting viewership into active supporter identity.

Fantasy Football Participation Across Markets

Fantasy football participation varies substantially across the five countries, ranging from 70% active players in Kenya to just 23% in Mozambique. This range, a three-to-one gap between the most and least engaged markets, reflects differences in digital literacy, mobile data affordability, EPL cultural penetration, and the maturity of the fantasy gaming ecosystem in each country.

Kenya’s dominance in fantasy participation aligns with its broader profile as the most intensively engaged football market in the survey. Ghana (55%) and Nigeria (40%) show meaningful participation, while South Africa (34%) and Mozambique (23%) trail. The 14–18% who previously played but stopped across all markets indicates that retention, rather than acquisition, may be the primary challenge for fantasy platforms in Africa.

Fantasy Platform Preferences

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is the dominant platform across all five markets, used by 49–87% of fantasy players depending on the country. Kenya records the highest FPL penetration among fantasy players (87%), while Mozambique is the most diverse market, with ESPN Fantasy (36%) and local or community-organised leagues (42%) both materially challenging FPL’s lead.

The strength of local and community-organised leagues in Nigeria (30%), South Africa (28%), and Mozambique (42%) points to the social, WhatsApp-enabled dimension of fantasy football in these markets. Many players participate not through global platforms but through informal leagues organised within friend or workplace networks, suggesting a significant untracked segment of fantasy engagement. This represents both an insight for platform providers looking to formalise and monetise this behaviour and a data consideration for anyone benchmarking fantasy engagement using platform-specific metrics alone.

Stadium Attendance & the Live Match Experience

Live match attendance is a strong proxy for the depth of football fandom and the health of the domestic sporting ecosystem. South Africa (65%), Mozambique (66%), and Kenya (62%) record the highest rates of respondents who have ever attended a live match. Among those who have attended multiple times, South Africa leads at 48%, closely followed by Mozambique (46%). These figures reflect strong stadium cultures and relatively accessible match-going infrastructure in these markets.

Ghana records the lowest attendance rate (43%) but also the highest aspiration to attend among non-attenders, with 53% expressing a desire to attend a live match in the future. This gap between aspiration and behaviour suggests that structural barriers, such as ticket pricing, stadium accessibility, match scheduling, or safety perceptions, are suppressing demand that clearly exists. Nigeria (41%) also shows a strong latent demand for live attendance. For clubs, federations, and event organisers in both markets, this data points to a substantial addressable audience for whom the right interventions could convert interest into attendance.

Football Betting

Sports betting is deeply embedded in football consumption across all five surveyed markets, with active participation (regular and occasional bettors combined) ranging from 49% in Ghana to 77% in Kenya. Kenya stands out as the most intensive market, where 42% of respondents report betting regularly—by far the highest regular betting rate across the study—highlighting how strongly wagering is integrated into everyday football engagement.

South Africa (67%), Mozambique (66%), and Nigeria (62%) also record active betting rates above 60%, confirming that sports betting is not a marginal behaviour in these countries but a mainstream element of football fandom for most respondents.

Ghana records the lowest active betting rate at 49%, likely reflecting a mix of regulatory dynamics and differing cultural attitudes toward sports wagering. Even so, there is clear latent activity in the market, with 18% of respondents saying they have previously bet but stopped, pointing to meaningful prior exposure and potential for reactivation.

The share of respondents who have never engaged in sports betting ranges from just 8% in Kenya to 33% in Ghana. This contrast highlights both the maturity of the Kenyan betting market and the significant untapped potential in West Africa, particularly as regulatory frameworks and commercial offerings continue to evolve.

Gender Differences in Betting

Male respondents bet at significantly higher rates than female respondents across all five countries. The gender gap is most extreme in Mozambique, where 71% of male respondents bet actively compared to just 27% of female respondents, a 45 percentage point differential that is among the starkest gender gaps in any metric captured by this survey. Kenya (80% male 62% female), Nigeria (65% male vs 38% female) and Ghana (51% male vs 42% female) also record meaningful gaps.

South Africa has the narrowest gender gap in betting behaviour (74% male vs 59% female), consistent with the country’s more balanced gender profile and generally more equal participation in commercial leisure activities. For betting operators seeking to broaden their consumer base, South Africa and Ghana offer the most promising environments for female-targeted product and marketing strategies.

Methodology/About this Survey

This exclusive survey was powered by GeoPoll’s AI platform; Tuucho run via the GeoPoll mobile application and WhatsApp in Kenya between between 11 and 15 May 2026 the sample size was 2,452, composed of random users between 18 and 50. Since the survey was randomly distributed to an and the results are slightly skewed towards younger respondents. All questions were self-administered via mobile survey in English.

The GeoPoll Africa Football Survey 2026 examines football consumption across five African markets, highlighting its overwhelming dominance as the continent’s leading sport with 91–96% followership and exceptionally high national team loyalty above 89% in all countries. While football engagement is near-universal, the study reveals distinct national differences in how fans consume and interact with the game across media, live attendance, fantasy sports, and betting. Kenya emerges as the most commercially engaged market, Ghana shows strong interest but lower stadium attendance, Mozambique reflects a more distinct Lusophone and La Liga-influenced profile, South Africa demonstrates strong Premier League and pay-TV-driven consumption, and Nigeria combines high engagement with strong free-to-air television reliance. Overall, the findings show a highly unified football culture in passion, but a fragmented landscape in consumption behaviour and commercial engagement opportunities.

Please get in touch with us to get more details about our capabilities, explore more on various topics in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

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Voices from the Pump: Kenyan Public Perspectives on the Fuel Shortage Crisis

Newton Adika — Tue, 12 May 2026 17:57:32 +0000

In early May 2026, GeoPoll surveyed 1,120 Kenyan adults to understand how the country’s ongoing fuel shortage is being felt on the ground. The picture that emerged is one of nearuniversal disruption. Across every dimension we measured transport, household finances, business operations, and public outlook, the shortage has left a visible mark on daily life.

The study was conducted by GeoPoll using its WhatsApp-based data collection mode and end-user mobile app across Kenya between May 6 and 9, 2026. A total of 1,120 respondents participated, providing insights into public awareness and lived experiences of the ongoing fuel shortage in the country.

The study explored key themes including awareness of the shortage, personal and household experiences, daily disruptions, economic effects, coping strategies, perceptions of government response, and expectations for the future.

At a glance

Awareness of the ongoing fuel shortage in Kenya is very high, with 96% of respondents reporting that they are aware of the situation.
A significant majority of respondents, 81%, reported having personally experienced difficulty accessing fuel in the past two weeks in Kenya.
A large majority of respondents, 94%, reported that their household expenses have increased as a result of the fuel shortage in Kenya. Notably, more than half of this group (53%) indicated that the increase has been significant, highlighting the strong financial pressure placed on households.
Among public transport users, 96% reported an increase in fares in Kenya, with 51% stating that the increase has been significant.
A notable portion of respondents, 30%, attribute the ongoing fuel shortage in Kenya to geopolitical tensions.
A slight majority of respondents, 53%, expect the fuel shortage in Kenya to persist for more than a month or potentially develop into a longer-term issue.

Awareness and Personal Experience

Crisis events often reach a point where they move beyond media coverage and become part of everyday lived experience. In the case of the fuel shortage in Kenya, this transition appears to have fully occurred. Awareness is near-universal at 96%, indicating that the issue is widely recognized across the population.

However, awareness alone does not capture the full extent of the situation. The more important indicator is how deeply the shortage is affecting daily routines, and the data shows clear evidence of widespread disruption across mobility, household spending, and transport costs.

A total of 81% of respondents reported having personally experienced difficulties accessing fuel in the past two weeks in Kenya. This indicates that a large majority of those surveyed are not only aware of the situation, but are directly affected by it in their day-to-day lives. Many have faced long queues at petrol stations, been unable to refuel when needed, incurred higher-than-expected costs, or had to adjust their routines due to inconsistent fuel availability.

More than half of respondents (53%) reported that they experienced fuel shortages very often or on multiple occasions each week in Kenya. This indicated that the issue was not occasional, but a recurring disruption that had become part of daily routines for many people, affecting how they moved, worked, and planned their activities.

Only 3% reported that they had never experienced a fuel shortage, highlighting how widespread and persistent the challenge had been across the surveyed population.

The Cost of Getting Around

Kenya is a country constantly in motion, where millions of people rely on public transport each day, including matatus, boda bodas, and tuk-tuks, to get to work, school, markets, and health facilities. When fuel becomes scarce or costly, the impact is not confined to petrol stations; it moves with every journey, affecting passengers, goods, and services across the transport network.

The data clearly reflect this reality. Increased transport costs emerged as the most widely reported impact of the fuel shortage, cited by 81% of respondents.

Impact on Daily Activities

Respondents were asked to select all ways in which the fuel shortage had affected their daily lives. Beyond transport, 45% reported an increase in the cost of goods and services, reflecting the ripple effects of higher logistics and delivery expenses across the supply chain. A quarter (25%) indicated reduced business operations, while 23% experienced commuting delays that disrupted their daily schedules.

Overall, the findings pointed to widespread disruption across everyday economic activity, where most forms of movement and service delivery had become more costly or difficult. Only 2% of respondents reported that the shortage had not affected their daily life.

What Happened to Transport Fares?

More than half, 60% of respondents reported relying primarily on matatus or buses for their daily travel, while 44% used boda bodas. These modes of transport are not occasional alternatives, they form the core of daily mobility for most people. As fuel costs rise, operators typically pass these increases on to passengers, leaving limited alternatives for commuters.

The impact on fares was near-universal. A total of 96% of public transport users reported an increase in fares, with 51% describing the rise as significant. A further 45% noted that fares had increased, though less sharply. Only a small minority, less than 4%, reported no change in transport costs.

96% of public transport users say fares have gone up. Almost no one has been spared.

Household Finances Under Pressure

The combined effect of higher transport costs and rising prices for goods has been clearly reflected in household budgets. When respondents were asked about the overall impact of the fuel shortage on their household expenses, the responses were overwhelmingly consistent.

A total of 94% reported that their household expenses had increased. More than half of these respondents (53%) described the increase as significant rather than marginal. This points to a shift from manageable cost adjustments to more pronounced financial pressure for many households. Only 5% reported no change in their expenses, while just 1% indicated a decrease.

For households already operating under constrained budgets, even moderate increases in daily costs translate into reduced financial flexibility. The breadth of the response suggests that the impact has been widely felt across different segments of the population.

The View From the Petrol Station

Among the 195 respondents who had recently attempted to purchase fuel directly, either for their own vehicle or one they were travelling in, very few described the experience as smooth. Only 5% reported finding fuel available without any challenges, while the vast majority encountered at least one difficulty at the station.

The most commonly reported issue was higher-than-expected prices, cited by 58% of respondents. In addition, 43% experienced long queues at fuel stations, indicating sustained pressure on available supply. More than a quarter (27%) found stations closed or completely out of stock, while another 27% reported experiencing fuel rationing, where purchases were limited to restricted quantities.

Taken together, these findings point to a supply situation that extended beyond price increases alone. The combination of higher prices, long waiting times, stock shortages, and rationing reflected significant strain in fuel availability during the survey period, with uninterrupted access reported by only a small minority.

“One in four fuel buyers found the station closed or out of stock. One in four more were rationed.”

Businesses on the Back Foot

Among the 904 respondents in this group, only 3% reported that their business operations had not been affected by the fuel shortage. The remaining 97% experienced some level of disruption, ranging from minor challenges to severe operational difficulties.

A significant share, 42%, described the impact on their business as major, pointing to widespread strain on day-to-day operations. These disruptions likely included increased operating costs, delayed deliveries, reduced customer activity, slower transport and logistics, and interruptions to normal business schedules. An additional 40% reported moderate disruption, showing that the effects of the shortage were being felt across a broad range of businesses and economic activities.

82% of business operators report major or moderate disruption. Just 3% say they have not been affected.

How Kenyans Are Adapting

Respondents reported adopting a range of coping strategies in response to the fuel shortage and rising transport costs. The most common adjustment was walking or cycling, cited by 40% of respondents. For many, this reflected a practical response to reduced transport affordability or availability, often requiring longer travel times and added physical strain in daily routines.

A further 39% reported reducing non-essential travel, indicating that many households were limiting discretionary movement in order to manage costs. Meanwhile, 30% said they were relying more heavily on public transport, despite widespread reports of increased fares.

Remote work was identified as a coping strategy by 16% of respondents, suggesting that those with flexible or digital-based jobs were using it to reduce transport-related expenses. Another 15% reported shifting toward alternative energy sources such as solar power or LPG, pointing to a gradual move by some households and businesses toward alternative energy options during the shortage period.

Only 7% indicated that they had made no adjustments and were continuing with their routines as usual.

Who, or What, Is to Blame?

Geopolitical tensions were identified as the leading perceived cause of the fuel shortage, cited by 30% of respondents. In particular, many respondents associated the situation with international conflicts and instability affecting global fuel supply and pricing, including tensions involving the United States and Iran. This suggests a strong level of public awareness around the influence of global energy market dynamics on local fuel availability.

At the same time, respondents also pointed to several domestic factors. Government policy and regulation were cited by 19% as the main cause of the shortage, while 17% attributed it to supply chain disruptions. A further 9% blamed hoarding by suppliers and dealers, and another 9% pointed to corruption or mismanagement.

Combined, domestically linked explanations, including policy issues, supply chain challenges, hoarding, corruption, and import-related concerns, accounted for a larger share of responses than geopolitical factors alone, indicating that many respondents viewed the shortage as being driven by both international and local pressures.

Actions taken by the government

Public opinion on the government’s response to the fuel shortage was divided. A total of 40% of respondents rated the response as effective or very effective, while 37% viewed it as somewhat or very ineffective. Another 23% remained neutral. The relatively even distribution across these views suggests that many respondents were still uncertain about the effectiveness of the response during the survey period. However, the sizeable share expressing dissatisfaction indicates growing concern among a significant portion of the population, particularly given the widespread financial impact of the shortage on households.

What Should Be Done?

Respondents identified a range of priorities they believed the government should focus on to address the fuel shortage, with no single solution standing out overwhelmingly. Regulating fuel prices and negotiating better import deals were the most cited actions, each selected by 33% of respondents, reflecting strong concern around affordability and fuel supply stability. At the same time, many respondents also supported longer-term measures, including investment in alternative energy infrastructure (27%) and increased local refining capacity (27%). Other priorities included cracking down on hoarding and cartels (26%) and expanding strategic fuel reserves (25%). Overall, the responses suggested that the public was looking for a broad and multi-faceted approach that addresses both the immediate crisis and longer-term energy resilience.

Looking Ahead: No Quick Resolution in Sight

One of the most significant findings from the survey was not only how respondents were experiencing the fuel shortage, but also how long they expected it to continue. Public expectations are important because they influence everyday decisions, from household spending and travel habits to business planning and investment. Respondents generally expressed limited confidence in a quick resolution to the crisis. Only 8% expected the shortage to end within a week, while 14% believed it would be resolved within two weeks. In total, just 22% anticipated a near-term recovery.

By contrast, the majority expected the disruption to continue for a longer period. Twenty-four percent believed the shortage would last about a month, 30% expected it to continue beyond a month, and another 24% viewed it as a potential long-term issue. Combined, 54% of respondents expected the shortage to persist for more than a month or become an ongoing structural challenge. These expectations suggest that many households and businesses may continue adjusting their behaviour in response to prolonged uncertainty, including reducing travel, limiting spending, and slowing economic activity.

Methodology/About this Survey

This Exclusive Survey was powered by GeoPoll’s AI platform; Tuucho run via the GeoPoll mobile application and WhatsApp in Kenya between May 6 and 9, 2026 the sample size was 1,120, composed of random users between 18 and 50. Since the survey was randomly distributed to an and the results are slightly skewed towards younger respondents. All questions were self-administered via mobile survey in English.

The aim of the study was to provide timely, data-driven insights into how the fuel shortage was affecting consumers and businesses, how people were adapting to the disruption, and what they expected in the months ahead. The research also explored public views on the causes of the shortage and perceptions of the government’s response. Through this study, GeoPoll sought to capture real-time public sentiment and contribute actionable insights that can inform policymakers, businesses, development partners, and other stakeholders responding to the crisis.

Please get in touch with us to get more details about our capabilities, explore more on various topics in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

The post Voices from the Pump: Kenyan Public Perspectives on the Fuel Shortage Crisis appeared first on GeoPoll.

Connected & Concerned Cybersecurity & Data Protection in Kenya Report

Newton Adika — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:20:45 +0000

Kenya’s digital population is highly active online, broadly aware of the country’s data protection framework, and deeply worried about cybercrime. Yet awareness has not fully translated into protective behaviour, and financial losses from cyber incidents are widespread.

GeoPoll conducted this survey across Kenya in April 2026 to understand how ordinary people experience the digital security landscape, from awareness of legal protections to the security incidents they’ve personally encountered. Most respondents use the internet multiple times a day, primarily through smartphones. Social media is near-universal. Mobile money platforms like M-Pesa sit at the heart of daily financial life, and, as the data shows, at the heart of fraud exposure too.

73% are aware of Kenya’s Data Protection Act (2019), Nearly three in four Kenyans have heard of the Data Protection Act, 2019, a strong result for a law enacted just over five years ago. Awareness is highest among urban,
37% Lost money due to a cyber-related incident. More than one in three respondents suffered direct financial loss from a cyber incident over the past year. Mobile money fraud and phishing are the primary vectors. Male respondents are more likely to report losses (40%) than women (34%)
90% Interested in learning more about cybersecurity. Nine in ten respondents want to learn more about cybersecurity, a level of demand that is genuinely exceptional and represents a clear mandate for public and private sector education initiatives.
69% Very concerned about cybercrime in Kenya. Cybercrime concern is near-universal, with 69% ‘very concerned’ and a further 16% ‘somewhat concerned’ meaning 85% of all respondents express significant worry about the threat.

75% of respondents are uncomfortable sharing personal information online, yet over half regularly share their phone number and email address on digital platforms.

Kenya is online, and it’s mobile-first

Nearly nine in ten respondents access the internet several times a day. The smartphone dominates, and social media is the near-universal digital entry point.

Social media dominates at 88%, consistent with Kenya’s position as one of Africa’s most active social media markets. Email (42%) and online banking (32%) follow, with e-commerce at just 2%, a signal that mobile money platforms have effectively absorbed the transactional role that online retail occupies elsewhere. The smartphone is the gateway to all of this: 79% of respondents cite it as their primary internet device. This is not a new trend but an accelerating one, Kenya’s mobile-first internet economy has been built on the back of sub-$100 Android handsets and competitive mobile data pricing from operators like Safaricom, Airtel, and Telkom.

Internet access is intensive rather than occasional. 87% of respondents connect several times daily, which means Kenyan users are continuously exposed to the digital environment, and to its risks. Understanding cybersecurity for Kenyan users is not about protecting a device that gets used once a week. It is about securing the tool that manages money, communication, business, and social life around the clock.

High DPA awareness, but understanding lags behind

The Data Protection Act, 2019 came into force on 25 November 2019, making Kenya one of the first countries in East Africa to adopt comprehensive data protection legislation modelled on the EU’s GDPR. Enforced by the Office of the Data Protection Commissioner (ODPC), the Act gives every Kenyan the right to know what personal data is held about them, how it is used, and the right to have it corrected or deleted. In 2025 alone, Kenyan organisations paid over KES 30 million in compensation to individuals for privacy violations, signalling that enforcement is intensifying.

73% of respondents have heard of Kenya’s Data Protection Act (2019). However, self-reported understanding of how companies use personal data tells a more nuanced story.

That 73% of our respondents have heard of the Act is an encouraging headline. But awareness is not the same as understanding — only 36% say they understand ‘very well’ how companies use their personal data, and 28% say they do not understand it very well at all. This gap between knowing a law exists and understanding its practical implications for one’s own digital behaviour is precisely the space where exploitation happens.

Social media is overwhelmingly the leading source of data protection education at 77%, nearly double news and traditional media (44%). Government campaigns reach only 14%, suggesting official public education efforts have significant room to grow. Among men, DPA awareness is slightly higher at 76% vs. 70% among women, pointing to a modest but meaningful gender gap in formal digital literacy exposure that targeted interventions could address.

Sharing Personal Data Online

Most Kenyans express discomfort sharing personal data online, yet the data they routinely share tells a different story.

There is a striking disconnect between expressed discomfort and actual behaviour in this data. Three quarters of respondents say they are not comfortable sharing personal information online, yet phone numbers (52%) and email addresses (51%) are shared routinely. Photos and videos are shared by 32%. This is not necessarily hypocrisy, it reflects the practical reality that many digital services in Kenya, from ride-hailing to food delivery to mobile banking, require personal data as a condition of use. The discomfort is real, but the trade-off feels unavoidable.

More sensitive categories, location data, national ID numbers, and financial details, are shared by just 13% and 1% respectively. This suggests respondents do draw a meaningful line around their most sensitive identifiers, even if contact details flow freely. The 13% who share location data regularly are particularly exposed, given how precisely location can be used to enable targeted crime.

The high rate of privacy policy reading (56% always read them) is a positive finding. However, research consistently shows a gap between claiming to read policies and actually reading them with comprehension. The true test of engagement with privacy notices is whether people change their behaviour based on what they read, which requires policies that are comprehensible in the first place.

Cybercrime is not a distant threat, it’s personal

The scale of mobile money fraud in Kenya is not just anecdotal, it is structural. Over 30 million Kenyans use M-Pesa regularly, and the platform processes more than $50 billion annually. This ubiquity creates a vast attack surface. According to Techweez, Mobile banking fraud cases surged 87% between 2023 and 2024, driven by SIM-swap schemes, credential theft, and social engineering attacks. Between July and September 2025 alone, Kenya recorded an estimated KES 29.9 billion (approximately US$230 million) lost to cybercrime.

Our survey found that 54% of respondents have experienced mobile money fraud, a figure that places this squarely in the category of endemic risk rather than edge case. A 2021 FinAccess survey similarly found that mobile money users who reported losing money had risen from 8.4% in 2019 to 47.4% by 2021, though that figure includes accidental transfers. What is consistent across data sources is that mobile money fraud in Kenya is pervasive, growing, and deeply tied to everyday financial life.

37% of our respondents have personally lost money to a cyber incident in the past 12 months. Male respondents are more likely to report financial loss (40% vs. 34% for women), which may reflect differences in mobile financial activity, or greater willingness among men to disclose losses. The majority of victims (74%) lost less than KSh 5,000, a meaningful but recoverable sum. However, 6% report losing more than KSh 50,000, representing a significant tail of severe financial harm.

Mobile money fraud demands Kenya-specific responses 54% of respondents report mobile money fraud experience. This is a threat category largely absent from global cybersecurity frameworks, driven by SIM-swap schemes and social engineering that exploit the very platforms underpinning Kenya’s financial inclusion story.

Trust in companies and confidence in Kenya’s data laws

Strong passwords are the most common protective measure at 78%, but the figure that stands out is two-factor authentication at 52%. This is substantially higher than global averages, and almost certainly reflects Kenyan users’ repeated exposure to 2FA through M-Pesa, mobile banking apps, and fintech services. Security habits that emerged out of financial necessity have become more generalised, a rare example of mobile money’s security architecture having positive spillover effects on user behaviour.

At the same time, emerging authentication trends suggest that even these strong habits may continue to evolve. As highlighted in this BBC article on passkeys and the future of authentication, there is a growing global shift away from traditional passwords toward passwordless systems such as passkeys, which are designed to be more secure and resistant to phishing. These technologies build on the same principles that made two-factor authentication successful, layered security and user verification,but aim to remove friction while improving protection. In markets like Kenya, where users are already accustomed to multi-step verification through mobile financial services, the transition to passwordless authentication may be smoother and faster than in regions where such behaviours are less entrenched.

On institutional trust, only 47% of respondents trust companies, either completely or somewhat, to protect their personal data. The largest single group (33%) is neutral, which likely reflects uncertainty rather than confidence. On law effectiveness, 59% view Kenya’s data protection laws as at least somewhat effective, and 36% are sceptical. Notably, a 2025 amendment bill proposed increasing the financial penalties under the DPA from ‘whichever is lower’ to ‘whichever is higher’ for large organisations, which would substantially increase regulatory exposure for non-compliant companies, and may begin to shift public trust if enforcement becomes more visible.

A population ready to learn

90% of respondents expressed interest in learning more about data protection and cybersecurity. This is an extraordinary level of expressed demand, and it translates directly into an opportunity. The question is not whether Kenyans want to be educated on this topic, but whether the education on offer meets them where they are, in the format they prefer, and at the level of practical actionability they need.

Social media leads as the preferred channel at 83%, which aligns with where people are already encountering information about data protection. Campaigns on WhatsApp, TikTok, Instagram, and X that use short-form video, relatable scenarios, and local language are likely to achieve the greatest penetration. TV and radio remain important at 57%, particularly in peri-urban and rural areas where data costs remain a barrier to heavy smartphone use. According to the Communications Authority of Kenya, internet penetration in rural areas still trails urban access significantly, making broadcast media a critical complementary channel.

School education (39%) and workplace training (23%) also feature prominently, suggesting appetite for more structured, credentialed forms of digital literacy education beyond the scroll-and-watch model of social media. This is particularly relevant for policymakers designing Kenya’s long-term digital skills agenda, cybersecurity education that begins in secondary school and is reinforced through employer-led programmes is likely to compound in impact over time in ways that social media campaigns cannot.

Social media is the logical starting point 83% prefer social media campaigns and 77% already learned about data protection through social platforms. Campaigns that meet Kenyans on WhatsApp, TikTok, and Instagram — in Swahili and English — will have the greatest reach.

Key Takeaways

Cybercrime exposure is near-universal 61% have experienced phishing, 54% mobile money fraud, 31% account hacking. 75% know someone personally who has been a victim. This is not a marginal risk, it is mainstream.
The awareness–behaviour gap is real High DPA awareness and expressed caution about data sharing coexist with widespread sharing of contact details and significant password reuse. Education must move from awareness to actionable behaviour change.
Mobile money fraud needs tailored policy responses The scale of mobile money fraud marks Kenya as a distinct threat environment. Generic cybersecurity frameworks are insufficient. Industry-level responses from the Central Bank of Kenya, Safaricom, and telecom operators are needed.
Demand for education is a genuine opportunity 90% want to learn more. Organisations and platforms that invest in accessible, practical cybersecurity content in local languages will be meeting a clearly stated public need.
Institutional trust must be earned through enforcement Only 47% trust companies with their data. As the ODPC steps up enforcement and the DPA amendment bill progresses, visible accountability actions will be essential to rebuild public confidence.

Methodology/About this Survey

This Exclusive Survey was powered by GeoPoll’s AI platform; Tuucho run via the GeoPoll mobile application and Mobile web in Kenya, the sample size was 1,813, composed of random users between 18 and 50. Since the survey was randomly distributed to an and the results are slightly skewed towards younger respondents, and urban residents (59% urban, 24% rural, 17% peri-urban) and gender: 50% female, 50% male. All questions were self-administered via mobile survey in English. Response rates and regional weights are available on request.

The study set out to understand how everyday Kenyan internet users perceive and experience the digital security landscape — covering awareness of Kenya’s Data Protection Act, attitudes toward personal data sharing, the prevalence and financial impact of cyber incidents, trust in companies and government to safeguard data, and appetite for further education on cybersecurity. With Kenya’s mobile-first digital economy making platforms like M-Pesa central to daily financial life, the survey was designed to capture not just general cybersecurity sentiment but the specific threats and behaviours shaping the experience of a population navigating one of Africa’s most dynamic, and most exposed digital environments.

Please get in touch with us to get more details about our capabilities, explore more on various topics in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

The post Connected & Concerned Cybersecurity & Data Protection in Kenya Report appeared first on GeoPoll.

What is AI Enumeration? A Practitioner’s Guide to AI-Led Survey Interviews

Frankline Kibuacha — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 14:21:42 +0000

AI enumeration is the use of conversational AI systems to conduct survey interviews with respondents, replacing or augmenting the role of a human enumerator. Instead of a trained interviewer dialing a respondent and reading questions from a script, an AI voice agent does the work: asking questions, listening to responses, probing open-ends, and recording structured data in real time.

The term borrows from traditional survey research, where “enumeration” refers to the act of collecting data from respondents in the field, by phone, or through mobile channels. AI enumeration applies the same function to a new mode of delivery.

For research teams operating at scale across multiple languages and time zones, AI enumeration is one of the most significant methodological shifts since the move from face-to-face interviewing to computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). But like any new method, it works well in some contexts and poorly in others, and understanding the difference is what separates useful adoption from expensive experimentation.

This guide covers what AI enumeration is, how it works, where it adds value, where it falls short, and why research expertise and verified respondent panels remain essential even as the interview itself becomes automated.

How AI enumeration works

At a mechanical level, AI enumeration systems combine three technologies: speech recognition to understand what the respondent says, a large language model to interpret meaning and generate follow-up questions, and text-to-speech to deliver questions in a natural voice.

The AI follows a structured questionnaire, just as a CATI interviewer would, but it can adapt within defined boundaries. If a respondent gives an unclear answer to an open-ended question, the AI can probe for clarification. If a respondent mentions something worth exploring, the AI can branch into a follow-up. And if the respondent speaks a different dialect or code-switches between languages, modern systems can often keep up.

The respondent experience varies. Some AI enumeration deployments use voice over the phone, mirroring traditional CATI. Others use voice through WhatsApp or messaging apps. A few use text-based chat interfaces. The common thread is that the interview feels like a conversation rather than a form.

AI enumeration versus traditional enumeration

Traditional enumeration relies on trained human interviewers. It is proven, flexible, and capable of handling almost any research context, but it is also expensive, slow to scale, and subject to variability between interviewers.

AI enumeration flips several of these tradeoffs. It scales almost instantly, runs consistently across thousands of interviews, and operates in any language the model supports, at any hour, without fatigue. What it gives up, at least for now, is the human judgment that skilled enumerators bring to difficult interviews: reading hesitation, building rapport with reluctant respondents, and knowing when to push and when to step back.

Neither method is universally better. The useful question is which method fits which study, and for many projects the answer is a thoughtful combination of both.

Advantages of AI enumeration

Cost efficiency at scale. Human enumeration costs scale roughly linearly with sample size. AI enumeration has a higher fixed setup cost but much lower marginal cost per interview, which makes it economical for large samples, tracking studies, and high-frequency research. A study that would require hundreds of call center hours can often be completed in a fraction of the time at a fraction of the cost.
Speed to field and speed to data. An AI enumerator can start interviews as soon as the questionnaire is approved and the sample is ready. There is no enumerator training, no briefing, no staffing up for peak periods. Fielding windows that used to take two to three weeks can close in days, and because the AI transcribes and codes as it goes, clean data is available almost immediately after the last interview completes.
Consistency across interviews. Every respondent hears the same question in the same tone with the same phrasing. Interviewer effects, which are a real and often underdiscussed source of measurement error, are largely eliminated. This matters especially for tracking studies, where even small shifts in enumerator behavior between waves can create noise and bias that look like signals.
Language and dialect coverage. Multilingual studies have traditionally required recruiting, training, and managing enumerators in each language. AI systems trained on sufficiently large speech datasets can handle dozens of languages, including low-resource languages that are difficult to staff for. This is a particularly meaningful advantage in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, where a single national study might need to run in five or more languages.
Respondent candor on sensitive topics. There is a growing body of evidence that respondents disclose more openly to AI interviewers on sensitive subjects, including health behaviors, financial status, political attitudes, and experiences of discrimination or violence. The absence of social judgment seems to reduce the performative element of responses that skews sensitive-topic data.
24/7 availability. AI enumerators do not have shifts. Respondents in rural areas who are only reachable in the evening, or business owners who can only talk after closing, can be interviewed whenever they are available. This expands the reachable universe and reduces the bias introduced by sampling only people who answer during call center hours.
Scalability without quality degradation. In traditional enumeration, scaling a study often means hiring less experienced interviewers, which degrades quality at exactly the moment you need it most. AI enumeration holds quality constant regardless of sample size.

Drawbacks and considerations

Rapport limits. Human enumerators build trust through small cues: warmth, acknowledgment, cultural references, shared language. AI systems are getting better at this, but they still struggle with the kind of rapport that gets a reluctant respondent to open up or a busy executive to stay on the line. For studies where participation depends on rapport, human enumeration is still the better choice.
Complex probing and narrative elicitation. AI enumerators can probe effectively on structured open-ends, but they might fall short in deep narrative elicitation, especially when not well trained, where the interviewer needs to follow an unexpected thread, understand implicit meaning, or recognize when a respondent is circling back to something they have not yet said. Ethnographic and deeply qualitative work remains firmly in human territory.
Respondent trust and consent. Respondents have a right to know they are speaking with an AI. Disclosure is both an ethical and, increasingly, a regulatory requirement. Studies need to handle this transparently without suppressing participation.
Data security and model choice. AI enumeration involves sending the respondent’s speech to speech recognition and language models. The choice of models, where they are hosted, and how respondent data flows through the system are all material questions, particularly for studies involving vulnerable populations or regulated data.

Why research expertise still matters

AI enumeration automates the interview. It does not automate research.

Designing a study that yields valid, useful insights still requires methodological judgment: framing the research question, selecting the appropriate methodology, designing a questionnaire that avoids leading and double-barreled items, setting quotas that reflect population realities, defining weighting schemes that correct for known sample biases, and interpreting results in context. None of this is done by the AI.

If the questionnaire is poorly designed, an AI enumerator will execute it flawlessly and produce flawless garbage. If the sampling frame is biased, running the interviews through AI will produce precise estimates of the wrong quantity.

To get value from AI enumeration, researchers must pair it with genuine research expertise. If you treat AI enumeration as a replacement for research thinking, you will ship studies faster and be wrong faster.

Why a respondent database still matters

The second thing AI enumeration does not solve is the sample.

An AI enumerator needs someone to interview. That means a reachable, representative, profiled, and willing respondent base. Building such a base takes years and requires serious investment in recruitment, verification, profiling, re-engagement, and incentive management. It is not commodity infrastructure, and it cannot be conjured at the moment a study is commissioned.

In regions where traditional sampling frames are incomplete and where reaching specific demographic segments requires deliberate panel construction, the quality of the underlying respondent database largely determines the quality of any study run on top of it. An AI interviewer that calls the wrong people efficiently is not useful.

This is the pattern likely to play out across the industry: AI enumeration will become widely available, but the research buyers who get meaningful results will be the ones working with providers who own and actively maintain the respondent relationships the interviews depend on.

This is where organizations like GeoPoll, which has access to over 300 million mobile subscribers, come in. To provide a diverse enough sample to produce good research.

Best practices for AI-enumerated studies

Pilot before you scale. Always run a pilot of at least 50 to 100 interviews before a full rollout. Listen to the recordings. Check the transcriptions. Identify the questions where respondents are confused, the probes that are not firing, and the moments where the AI misinterprets an answer. Fix before scaling.
Design questionnaires for voice. Questionnaires that work on self-complete mobile surveys do not always work for voice. Long question stems, complex scales, and nested skip patterns that are fine for a human enumerator can confuse both the AI and the respondent. Shorter, cleaner, more conversational phrasing produces better results.
Plan QA before fielding, not after. Decide in advance what proportion of interviews will be reviewed, what flags will trigger review, and who owns the review process. Budget time and cost for it.
Use hybrid designs deliberately. AI for the scalable, structured portion of the study; human enumerators for the harder segments (rural, elderly, sensitive follow-ups, and qualitative deep dives). The best hybrid designs are intentional about which mode handles which respondent type.
Be transparent with respondents. Disclose at the start that the interview is being conducted by an AI. Give respondents the option to decline. Respondents who participate under clear consent give more reliable data than those who feel tricked.
Measure mode effects. If you are transitioning a tracking study from human CATI to AI enumeration, run a bridge study. Mode effects are real and measurable, and pretending they do not exist is how tracking data quietly loses its comparability.

Use cases for AI enumeration

Large-scale tracking studies. Brand health, political opinion, consumer confidence, and public health tracking studies all benefit from AI enumeration’s consistency and cost efficiency, particularly when they run monthly or quarterly across multiple markets.
Multilingual research in emerging markets. Studies that span multiple countries or multiple languages within a country, including African markets where staffing enumerators across five or more languages is a recurring operational challenge, can be run more cheaply and consistently with AI enumeration.
Rapid-turnaround studies. Crisis response research, reaction studies around news events, and tight-deadline commercial studies all benefit from the speed advantages of AI fielding.
Sensitive-topic research. Studies on health behaviors, financial vulnerability, gender-based violence, and political attitudes can produce more candid data through AI enumeration, though with strong ethical guardrails and clear pathways to human support where relevant.
Panel recontact and longitudinal work. Reaching existing panel members for follow-up waves is operationally expensive with human enumerators. AI enumeration lowers the cost enough to make more frequent, lighter-touch recontact viable.
Hard-to-reach schedules. Research with business owners, healthcare workers, farmers during harvest, or parents with young children requires flexibility that fixed call center hours cannot easily provide. AI enumeration’s always-on availability changes what is reachable.

Where AI enumeration is headed

AI enumeration will not replace human enumerators across the board. It will be for specific kinds of work, at specific scales, in specific contexts, while expanding the total volume of research that is economically viable. Integrating AI enumeration into a broader research offering rather than treating it as a standalone product is the current stance.

Powered by the ASR models we have been creating over the last few years using GeoPoll AI Data Streams, GeoPoll is currently running AI enumeration across our own survey platform. Our focus on multilingual performance in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, and on the quality controls that make AI-collected data fit for client use.

If you are thinking about AI enumeration for your research project, or if you would like to discuss a pilot, get in touch with the GeoPoll team.

The post What is AI Enumeration? A Practitioner’s Guide to AI-Led Survey Interviews appeared first on GeoPoll.

The Top TV and Radio Stations in Tanzania – Q1 2026

Frankline Kibuacha — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 09:30:20 +0000

A GeoPoll Analysis of TV & Radio Reach Ratings (January – March 2026)

Broadcast television and radio remain central to daily life in Tanzania, with the market shaped by distinctive features: a powerful sports-led TV ecosystem, a single evening peak that dwarfs every other viewing window, and a radio dial where three stations account for most of the national listening share.

GeoPoll’s Audience Measurement (GAM) data from January to March 2026 provides a picture of who is watching, who is listening, and when. This report distills the Q1 2026 numbers into the trends that matter for broadcasters, advertisers, and media planners operating in Tanzania.

As you read through this overview, remember that this is a high-level summary of national reach and share for Q1 2026. Weekly and monthly shifts, regional breakdowns, content-level performance, advertising effectiveness studies, and hourly unique-audience analysis are not covered here. For deeper insights, please reach out.

Top TV Stations in Tanzania

Television in Tanzania is a mass-reach medium, and the competitive landscape at the top is tight. The Top 5 stations are separated by only four percentage points on reach, with Azam Two leading by a narrow margin over ITV, the two Azam Sports channels, and TBC1.

Top 10 TV Stations by Reach (January – March 2026)

Rank	Station	Reach %
1	Azam Two	38.9%
2	ITV	37.9%
3	Azam Sports 1	37.5%
4	TBC1	36.3%
5	Azam Sports 2	34.6%
6	Sinema Zetu	28.9%
7	UTV	25.7%
8	Clouds	25.3%
9	East Africa TV	25.3%
10	Star	23.9%

One of the most striking features of the Tanzanian list is how much of it belongs to a single broadcaster group. Azam Media occupies three of the Top 5 positions on reach (Azam Two, Azam Sports 1, Azam Sports 2) and a fourth in the Top 10. This cluster gives the group an unusually strong position in any national reach calculation and a near-unavoidable presence in sports-led media plans.

TV Viewership by Dayparts

Reach tells us who tuned in over the quarter. Daypart share of viewing tells us when each station was winning. The numbers below represent each station’s share of total Top 10 viewing within the time block.

Early Morning (6:00 AM – 9:00 AM): Breakfast TV is the most fragmented block of the day. TBC1 leads with 16% share of Top 10 morning viewing, with ITV (15%), Clouds (12%), and Azam Two (11%) close behind. Seven different stations hold between 8% and 16%, which means morning audiences in Tanzania are genuinely split across the dial rather than concentrated on one or two options.
Afternoon (4:00 PM – 6:00 PM): This is where the Azam Sports effect becomes very clear. Azam Sports 1 commands 37% of Top 10 viewing in this block, and when combined with Azam Sports 2 and SuperSport, sports channels take more than 60% of all Top 10 afternoon viewing. Live football and pre-match programming drive this concentration, and it is one of the most commercially distinct dayparts in the Tanzanian market.
Prime-Time (7:00 PM – 10:00 PM): This is the single most important commercial block of the day, and it is dominated by three names. Azam Sports 1 takes 20% share, followed by ITV (16%) and Azam Sports 2 (15%). The Azam cluster combined (including Azam Two at 12%) takes roughly 47% of all Top 10 prime-time viewing, which is one of the most concentrated prime-time positions of any East African market.

Weekday Prime-Time Share of Viewing (7:00 PM – 10:00 PM)

Station	Share of Prime-Time Viewing
Azam Sports 1	20.3%
ITV	16.4%
Azam Sports 2	14.7%
Azam Two	11.7%
TBC1	9.2%
Sinema Zetu	9.0%
SuperSport	7.4%
UTV	6.2%
Clouds	2.9%
East Africa TV	2.3%

Late Night (10:00 PM – Midnight): The sports channels extend their lead into late-night viewing. Azam Sports 1 (29%) and Azam Sports 2 (20%) together account for nearly half of all late-night Top 10 viewing, with Azam Two adding another 16%. Late-night in Tanzania is, effectively, a sports block.

Weekend and Special Programming Trends

Weekends amplify what is already true about weekday viewing in Tanzania: the evening peak becomes even sharper, and the sports channels maintain their structural advantage across the day.

ITV leads weekend prime-time with 22% share, reflecting the pull of local drama and entertainment programming on Saturday and Sunday evenings.
The 8:00 PM weekend half-hour is by far the largest viewing window in the week, with total Top 10 audience roughly 1.6× the next-largest weekend half-hour and well above any single weekday moment.
Morning reach is significantly larger on weekends, with the 6:30 AM block drawing audiences that rival mid-afternoon weekday numbers. This suggests weekend morning content (children’s programming, religious broadcasts, magazine shows) remains a meaningful commercial window.

Top Radio Stations in Tanzania

Radio in Tanzania is concentrated at the top to a degree that is rare in the region. Three stations account for the bulk of national listening, and the drop-off from third to fourth place is the steepest on the chart.

Top 10 Radio Stations by Reach (January – March 2026)

Rank	Station	Reach %
1	TBC Taifa Radio	47.0%
2	Clouds	43.7%
3	Radio Free Africa	38.1%
4	Wasafi FM	25.9%
5	Radio One	23.1%
6	East Africa Radio	20.8%
7	E FM	19.5%
8	Radio Maria	12.0%
9	Abood FM	8.9%
10	Kiss FM	7.1%

TBC Taifa Radio leads at 47%, followed by Clouds (44%) and Radio Free Africa (38%). The gap to the fourth station, Wasafi FM, is more than 12 percentage points. For national advertisers, this concentration means that the top three stations are effectively must-include for any broad-reach Tanzanian radio plan.

Radio Listenership by Dayparts

Breakfast (6:00 AM – 9:00 AM): The breakfast block is dominated by the top three. TBC Taifa Radio leads with 26% share of Top 10 morning listening, followed by Radio Free Africa (22%) and Clouds (18%). Together, these three stations account for roughly two-thirds of all Top 10 breakfast listening on weekdays.

Weekday Breakfast Share of Listening (6:00 AM – 9:00 AM)

Station	Share of Breakfast Listening
TBC Taifa Radio	25.8%
Radio Free Africa	21.9%
Clouds	18.4%
Wasafi FM	7.8%
Radio One	6.9%
East Africa Radio	5.9%
E FM	5.8%
Abood FM	2.6%
Radio Maria	2.5%
Kiss FM	2.4%

Daytime (9:00 AM – 4:00 PM): Listening levels dip after breakfast but stabilise through the middle of the day, with Clouds holding a particularly strong position in the late-morning and lunchtime blocks. Radio Free Africa also sustains strong midday listening, reflecting loyal audiences who stay tuned through the workday.

Drive-Time (4:00 PM – 7:00 PM): The afternoon drive block tightens the race. TBC Taifa Radio (24%) holds a narrow lead over Clouds (22%) and Radio Free Africa (20%), with Wasafi FM (10%) a clear fourth. The top three are separated by less than five percentage points during drive-time, making it one of the most competitive listening windows of the day.

Evening (7:00 PM – 10:00 PM): The evening sees TBC Taifa Radio and Clouds move essentially level at roughly 26% share each, with Radio Free Africa dropping back to 12%. This is also where Wasafi FM’s 9:00 PM spike shows up, reflecting its entertainment-led evening programming pulling a distinct audience segment.

Weekend Radio Trends

Weekend listening follows a similar shape to weekdays but with a flatter distribution across the day. TBC Taifa Radio remains the weekend leader at breakfast, and Radio Free Africa’s weekend breakfast position strengthens, reflecting the role of weekend talk and religious programming.

Insights from the Q1 2026 Tanzania Media Numbers

A few structural themes emerge from the Tanzanian data:

Prime-time has a single peak, and it is unusually sharp. The 8:00 PM half-hour on weekdays is more than 1.5× the size of any other weekday moment, and on weekends it is even larger. Unlike markets with multiple evening peaks, Tanzania concentrates its evening audience into one narrow window. This is an important peak for media plans.
Sports is a structural pillar of Tanzanian TV, not a niche category. Azam Sports 1 alone takes more than a third of afternoon viewing and a fifth of prime-time viewing. Any national media plan that excludes sports inventory is effectively excluding a major portion of the available TV audience.
Breakfast is bigger than drive-time on radio, by a wide margin. Total Top 10 radio listening at 6:00 AM on weekdays is roughly 4× the level at 5:00 PM. This is a common pattern, but Tanzania’s morning peak is especially concentrated into the 6:00 – 7:00 AM hour. For advertisers, the morning hour is the single most valuable radio block of the day.
Radio listening is more concentrated than TV viewing. Three stations account for the majority of national radio listening across every daypart, while TV’s Top 10 is more evenly distributed. Advertisers can build meaningful TV reach across five or six channels, but radio reach in Tanzania requires the top three.
Cluster-brand effects matter more here than elsewhere. The Azam cluster’s combined share of prime-time TV viewing (around 47%) is a pattern that does not appear in most other East African markets. For competing broadcasters, advertisers, and media regulators, the shape of the market is not just about individual station performance but about group-level concentration.

GeoPoll Audience Measurement

GeoPoll provides real-time, data-driven insights into media consumption in Tanzania and across more than 120 countries. Whether you need daily audience measurement, on-demand analytics, a campaign effectiveness study, or a custom report covering a specific audience segment or time period, GeoPoll Audience Measurement gives broadcasters, advertisers, and media planners the tools to make informed decisions.

How to access more insights:

Subscribe for daily TV and radio ratings to track audience behavior in real time
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Measure advertising impact and campaign performance
Analyze viewership trends by content type, daypart, and broadcaster

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The post The Top TV and Radio Stations in Tanzania – Q1 2026 appeared first on GeoPoll.

The Top TV and Radio Stations in Kenya – Q1 2026

Frankline Kibuacha — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 10:16:46 +0000

Kenya’s media landscape moved into 2026 with television and radio still holding firm as everyday companions for millions of households. As we found out in the latest GeoPoll Media Landscape study, social platforms continue to eat into discretionary screen time, yet the data tells a steady story – Kenyans still switch on the TV and tune the radio dial.

GeoPoll’s Audience Measurement (GAM) data from January to March 2026 gives us a clear picture of who is watching, who is listening, and when. This report distills the Q1 2026 numbers into the trends that matter for broadcasters, advertisers, and media planners.

As you read through this overview, remember that this is a high-level summary of national reach and share for Q1 2026. Weekly and monthly shifts, regional breakdowns, content-level performance, advertising effectiveness studies, hourly unique-audience analysis, demographics, and actual numbers are not covered here. For deeper insights, please reach out.

Top TV Stations in Kenya

Television remains a mass-reach medium in Kenya, and the top of the table in Q1 2026 looks familiar. Citizen TV held on to the number one position, reaching three in every four Kenyan TV viewers over the quarter. NTV, KTN, SuperSport, and TV 47 rounded out the Top 5, with SuperSport’s continued climb into the top tier showing both the strength of live sport and the appetite for premium football programming.

Top 10 TV Stations by Reach (January – March 2026)

Rank	Station	Reach %
1	Citizen TV	75.5%
2	NTV	61.0%
3	KTN	55.6%
4	SuperSport	53.7%
5	TV 47	53.0%
6	Maisha Magic East	52.2%
7	K24	48.2%
8	KBC	47.6%
9	Al Jazeera	44.4%
10	Akili TV	43.6%

A few things stand out when compared to our previous report. SuperSport has climbed into the Top 4 on the back of a packed sporting calendar. TV 47 continues to consolidate its position as a go-to news and current affairs option, and Al Jazeera’s appearance in the Top 10 reflects strong interest in international news coverage during an eventful first quarter, especially with the Iran-Israel-US conflict.

TV Viewership by Dayparts

Early Morning (6:00 AM – 9:00 AM): Breakfast TV belongs to Citizen TV, which captures roughly 26% of Top 10 viewing during the morning block. NTV follows at 11.5%, with TV 47, KTN, and K24 clustered closely as Kenyans catch up with morning bulletins and talk shows before heading out.

Mid-Morning to Afternoon (9:00 AM – 6:00 PM): The daytime block is fragmented. Citizen TV still leads, but Maisha Magic East makes a strong showing with local drama and soap operas pulling in at-home audiences, while Inooro TV sustains a loyal vernacular following.

Prime-Time (7:00 PM – 9:30 PM): This remains the most competitive and most commercially valuable block of the day. Citizen TV commands 35.5% of Top 10 prime-time viewing on weekdays, powered by the 7:00 PM Swahili news and the programming that follows. NTV (13.4%) is the clear number two, followed by Maisha Magic East (8.9%), KTN (8.5%), SuperSport (7.3%), and TV 47 (6.9%).

Weekday Prime-Time Share of Viewing (7:00 PM – 9:30 PM)

Station	Share of Prime-Time Viewing
Citizen TV	35.5%
NTV	13.4%
Maisha Magic East	8.9%
KTN	8.5%
SuperSport	7.3%
TV 47	6.9%
Inooro TV	5.8%
K24	5.1%
KBC	4.9%
Al Jazeera	3.8%

Late Night (10:00 PM – Midnight): This is where the ranking changes most dramatically. SuperSport takes 37% of late-night viewing on weekdays, often more than any other station, as football fans stay up for European fixtures. Citizen TV holds second place at about 21%, with Maisha Magic East third.

Weekend and Special Programming Trends

Weekends shuffle the deck in favour of sport and family programming.

SuperSport’s share of weekend prime-time viewing climbs to 16.9%, nearly double its weekday prime-time share, driven by weekend football and other live sports.
In the weekend afternoon block (2:00 PM – 6:30 PM), SuperSport and Citizen TV run neck and neck, each capturing roughly 22–23% of Top 10 viewing, a pattern that reflects sports coverage running alongside family viewing.
Maisha Magic East maintains a strong weekend footprint with local drama.
Citizen TV and NTV continue to anchor weekend news bulletins and current affairs panels.

Top Radio Stations in Kenya

Radio continues to be remarkably resilient in Kenya. Despite the trends around podcasts and social audio, nearly two in three Kenyan radio listeners tuned into Citizen Radio in Q1 2026, with a dense pack of competitors close behind.

Top 10 Radio Stations by Reach (January – March 2026)

Rank	Station	Reach %
1	Citizen	64.7%
2	Radio Jambo	59.6%
3	Classic 105	58.4%
4	Radio Maisha	56.6%
5	Milele FM	49.2%
6	Kiss FM	43.9%
7	KBC English Service	43.0%
8	Radio Taifa	37.6%
9	Kameme	36.5%
10	Radio 47	36.1%

The top four stations are separated by a narrow margin, and all of them recorded their peak audiences at 7:00 AM – confirming that breakfast radio remains the most valuable block on the dial as listeners commute to work. Radio Jambo, interestingly, is the only Top 10 station whose peak hour shifts to 8:00 AM, pointing to a later-starting commuter audience, probably driven by the popular Patanisho segment.

Radio Listenership by Dayparts

Breakfast (6:00 AM – 9:00 AM): The breakfast block is a four-station contest. Classic 105 leads with 18.8% of Top 10 morning listening on weekdays, narrowly edging Citizen (17.4%), Radio Jambo (15.0%), and Radio Maisha (12.0%). Lifestyle and political talk shows drive this block, and it is where brands typically invest most heavily.

Weekday Breakfast Share of Listening (6:00 AM – 9:00 AM)

Station	Share of Breakfast Listening
Classic 105	18.8%
Citizen	17.4%
Radio Jambo	15.0%
Radio Maisha	12.0%
Kameme	7.8%
Milele FM	6.5%
Radio 47	6.4%
Kiss FM	6.2%
Radio Taifa	5.6%
KBC English Service	4.3%

Daytime (9:00 AM – 4:00 PM): Listening levels dip compared to breakfast, but Citizen and Classic 105 continue to lead. Kameme shows particular strength in the mid-morning block, reflecting its loyal Central Kenya audience staying tuned through the day.

Drive-Time (4:00 PM – 7:00 PM): Citizen pulls ahead in the afternoon drive block with 20.4% share of Top 10 listening, followed by Classic 105 (14.5%), Radio Jambo (14.1%), and Radio Maisha (11.9%).

Evening (7:00 PM – 10:00 PM): Citizen’s lead widens further in the evening to 26.1%, with Classic 105, Radio Maisha, and Radio Jambo filling out the top four.

Weekend Radio Trends

The weekend pattern mirrors weekdays at the top, but with a gentler peak and more even distribution across the day. Citizen (19.3%) and Classic 105 (18.1%) are essentially tied for weekend breakfast leadership, while Radio Jambo and Radio Maisha maintain their strong third and fourth positions.

What the Q1 2026 Numbers Tell Us

A few themes emerge from the data:

The gap behind the leaders is narrower than the top line suggests. Citizen TV and Citizen Radio lead their respective rankings. It is worth noting that in several dayparts, the second and third-place stations are within single-digit share points, meaning daypart selection matters as much as station selection for most campaigns for media planners.
Sport is now a Top 10 force on television. SuperSport’s weekend prime-time share (16.9%) and late-night dominance (37%) signal that live sports are among the few categories consistently pulling Kenyan viewers back to linear TV.
Breakfast remains the most contested slot on radio. Four stations are within a seven-point range at breakfast, and any share shift during this block has outsized commercial implications.
Vernacular and international stations have real weight. Inooro TV, Kameme, and Al Jazeera all made meaningful appearances in national rankings and in specific dayparts, a reminder that Kenya’s media market is more nuanced than the top line suggests.

GeoPoll Audience Measurement

GeoPoll provides real-time, data-driven insights into media consumption in Kenya and across more than 120 countries. Whether you need daily audience measurement, on-demand analytics, a campaign effectiveness study, or a custom report covering a specific audience segment or time period, GeoPoll Audience Measurement gives broadcasters, advertisers, and media planners the tools to make informed decisions.

How to access more media insights for Kenya:

Subscribe for daily TV and radio ratings to track audience behavior in real time
Request a custom report for any time period or audience segment
Measure advertising impact and campaign performance
Analyze viewership trends by content type, daypart, and broadcaster

Get in touch.

The post The Top TV and Radio Stations in Kenya – Q1 2026 appeared first on GeoPoll.

The Price of Conflict: How the Iran-Isreal-U.S. War is Affecting Fuel Costs and Supply and Cost of Living

Frankline Kibuacha — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:50:04 +0000

THEMATIC DEEP DIVE: How the Iran–Israel–U.S. Conflict Is Driving a Cost-of-Living Crisis Across the Global South

The Iran–Israel–United States conflict has been reshaping global energy markets since late 2025. For citizens in the Global South, the consequences are neither abstract nor distant. In Pakistan, the government implemented a historic Rs 55 per litre fuel price increase on 6 March 2026. In Kenya, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced on 14 April 2026 the largest fuel price adjustment in over 21 years of regulatory records — a KSh 28.69 per litre increase for petrol and KSh 40.30 for diesel, effective 15 April. In Egypt, subsidised fuel prices were revised upward for the third time in twelve months. In South Africa, the inland price of 95-octane petrol is set to breach some of the highest prices ever seen in the country . These are not coincidences. They are the downstream effects of a single geopolitical shock.

In early March 2026, GeoPoll surveyed 3,754 citizens across Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa as part of our Caught in the Crossfire? citizen perceptions study. Among the study’s most striking findings: the economic dimension of the conflict is being felt acutely and immediately, with fuel prices at the centre of public concern.

70%

of respondents across all six countries report that the conflict has affected fuel prices in their country

Across the six-country sample, 70% of respondents report that the conflict has affected fuel prices in their country, with 42% characterising the impact as significant. The finding is consistent across diverse economic contexts – from oil-importing economies such as Pakistan and Kenya to the oil-exporting economy of Saudi Arabia, where 46% still report an impact.

The variation across countries reflects both the degree of energy dependence and the extent of government intervention. Pakistan, where the government passed through the full cost of disrupted imports, registers the highest impact at 85%. Saudi Arabia, which benefits from domestic production and price controls, registers the lowest at 46% – though this figure is notable in itself for a major oil producer.

Respondents Reporting or expecting Fuel Price Impact by Country

Country Analysis: The Fuel Crisis on the Ground

Pakistan: The Highest Impact in the Dataset

Pakistan registers the most severe fuel price impact of any country in the study, with 85% of respondents reporting or expecting an effect. The finding is consistent with on-the-ground realities: on 6 March 2026, the government implemented a Rs 55 per litre fuel price increase – among the largest single adjustments in the country’s recent history – directly attributed to rising import costs resulting from conflict-related supply disruptions.

85%

of Pakistani respondents report or expect fuel price impact – the highest of any country surveyed

Fifty percent of Pakistani respondents identify inflation and cost of living as the single most significant economic consequence of the conflict, the highest figure for any country on this measure. Pakistan’s dependence on imported crude oil, combined with a depreciating rupee and constrained foreign exchange reserves, creates a transmission mechanism that converts global oil price shocks directly into consumer-level inflation.

Pakistan also brokered the short-lived ceasefire between Iran and the United States that took effect on 8 April 2026 before collapsing on 12 April. The ceasefire’s failure has further complicated Pakistan’s diplomatic positioning and reinforced public anxiety about prolonged economic disruption.

Kenya: From Shortage to Record-Breaking Price Adjustment

Kenya presents a particularly instructive case study. At the time of surveying in March 2026, Kenya’s fuel prices were government-regulated through the EPRA pricing mechanism, which had effectively absorbed global price increases without passing them to consumers. However, 79% of Kenyan respondents still reported fuel price impact – because the economic strain was manifesting not through prices but through supply disruptions.

By early April, a severe fuel shortage had spread across at least 13 counties. In response, the government deployed KSh 6.2 billion in emergency subsidies and reduced VAT on fuel from 16% to 13%. These measures proved insufficient to contain the crisis.

On 14 April 2026, EPRA announced the largest fuel price adjustment in over 21 years of regulatory records: super petrol now retails at KSh 206.97 per litre in Nairobi, up KSh 28.69 from KSh 178.28, while diesel rises KSh 40.30 to an all-time high of KSh 206.84, effective 15 April. EPRA data indicate that the landed cost of imported super petrol rose 41.5% and diesel 68.7% during the review period. The regulatory body cited “significant increases in the prices of petroleum products in the international market” as the primary driver.

The magnitude of these adjustments points to the unsustainability of shielding consumers from global price shocks through regulation alone, and validates the concerns expressed by the 79% of Kenyan respondents who identified fuel price impact before the price adjustment was officially announced.

79%

of Kenyan respondents reported fuel impact even before the record April price hike

Egypt: Inflation Compounds an Existing Crisis

Seventy-eight percent of Egyptian respondents report fuel price impact. Egypt, which floated its currency in March 2024 and has experienced sustained inflationary pressure, is particularly vulnerable to energy price shocks. The government has raised subsidised fuel prices three times in the past twelve months. Brent crude’s rise from approximately $70 per barrel in late 2025 to over $128 per barrel in March 2026 has placed severe strain on Egypt’s import bill and fiscal position.

Forty-eight percent of Egyptian respondents cite inflation as the most significant economic consequence – the second-highest figure after Pakistan (50%). Nineteen percent identify food prices specifically, the highest of any country, reflecting the compounding effect of energy costs on food production and transport.

South Africa: A Slow-Burning Crisis

Sixty-eight percent of South African respondents report fuel price impact. The inland price of 95-octane petrol exceeded R30 per litre in March 2026. South Africa’s fuel pricing mechanism adjusts monthly based on international crude prices, the rand–dollar exchange rate, and shipping costs – all three of which have moved unfavourably. The Automobile Association of South Africa warned in April that further significant increases are expected for May 2026.

Twenty-two percent of South African respondents cite employment and job losses as the most significant economic consequence – the highest figure for any country on this measure – reflecting broader structural vulnerabilities in an economy already contending with 32% unemployment.

Nigeria: A Producer Still Feeling the Pressure

Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, 56% of Nigerian respondents report fuel price impact. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, which began operations in late 2024, has partially insulated the domestic market from global price shocks. However, the naira’s weakness and continued import dependence for refined products mean that global price movements still transmit to consumers, albeit with a lag.

The relatively lower figure compared to other countries in the sample may reflect some insulating effect of domestic production, but 56% still represents a majority reporting impact – a finding that challenges any assumption that oil-producing nations are immune to the conflict’s economic consequences.

Saudi Arabia: Impact Even for the Region’s Largest Producer

Saudi Arabia registers the lowest fuel price impact at 46%, consistent with its position as the world’s largest oil exporter with heavily subsidised domestic fuel prices. That nearly half of Saudi respondents still report an impact suggests the conflict’s economic effects extend beyond fuel pricing to broader cost-of-living increases and market uncertainty.

Inflation is the Primary Economic Consequence

When asked to identify the single most significant economic consequence of the conflict, respondents across all six countries point to inflation and cost of living (43%), followed by fuel prices specifically (27%), food prices (15%), and employment or job losses (13%). The pattern is consistent across countries, though the relative weighting varies with national economic conditions.

Economic Impact	Pakistan	Egypt	Kenya	S. Africa	Nigeria	Saudi
Inflation / CoL	50%	48%	40%	38%	35%	42%
Fuel prices	30%	22%	33%	25%	30%	22%
Food prices	10%	19%	14%	12%	16%	15%
Employment	8%	9%	11%	22%	16%	18%

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Chokepoint Under Pressure

The economic dynamics documented in this study are inseparable from developments in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply transits. Following the collapse of the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on 12 April 2026, the U.S. Navy intensified its maritime operations in the Persian Gulf, raising the operational risk premium on all crude oil shipped through the strait.

Brent crude prices rose from approximately $70 per barrel in late 2025 to over $128 per barrel by mid-March 2026. While prices have fluctuated with diplomatic developments, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s revised 2026 forecast of $96 per barrel (up from $74) signals that markets anticipate sustained disruption. For import-dependent economies such as Pakistan, Kenya, and Egypt, each dollar increase in the Brent price translates directly into higher landed costs for fuel, food, fertiliser, and manufactured goods.

Citizen Perspectives

The survey included open-ended responses that contextualise the quantitative findings. The following responses are representative of the concerns expressed across the six-country sample:

“It’s worrisome as we are in alliance with the States so we could be hit next.”

— Respondent, Pakistan

“The price of fuel in South Africa is too high and it has a direct impact on the cost of food and other essential commodities.”

— Respondent, South Africa

“The war in the Middle East has made food items and fuel too expensive for the common man.”

— Respondent, Nigeria

Why This Matters

The data presented in this report demonstrate that the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict is not merely a geopolitical crisis confined to the Middle East. It is an economic event with measurable, immediate consequences for populations across the Global South. The 70% of respondents reporting fuel price impact, the 92% expressing cost-of-living concern, and the cascading effects on food, transport, and employment represent a humanitarian and policy challenge that extends well beyond the direct conflict zone.

For policymakers, the findings underscore the limits of domestic price controls and subsidies in the face of sustained global energy price shocks. Kenya’s trajectory, from regulated prices to nationwide shortage to record-breaking price adjustment, illustrates the unsustainability of shielding consumers indefinitely from global market forces.

For international organisations and development agencies, the data provide an empirical basis for understanding how distant conflicts translate into lived experience for citizens in Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. The economic consequences documented here are likely to intensify if the conflict continues or escalates.

Methodology

This report draws on data from GeoPoll’s Caught in the Crossfire? citizen perceptions study, conducted in early March 2026. The study surveyed 3,754 respondents across six countries: Egypt (n = 626), Kenya (n = 627), Nigeria (n = 625), Pakistan (n = 626), Saudi Arabia (n = 624), and South Africa (n = 626).

Respondents were recruited through GeoPoll’s proprietary mobile panel, which uses random sampling from mobile network operator databases to reach nationally representative populations. Surveys were administered via mobile-based interviewing across multiple modes, including CATI, SMS, and mobile web. All respondents were aged 18 and above.

The margin of error for country-level estimates is approximately ±3.9% at a 95% confidence level. Cross-country comparisons should be interpreted with awareness of differing national contexts, including variation in government fuel pricing policies, currency stability, and import dependence.

Access the full 37-page report:

Caught in the Crossfire? A Six-Country Citizen Perceptions Study on the Iran–Israel–U.S. Conflict

For enquiries about country-specific data, custom analysis, or partnership opportunities, contact us.

The post The Price of Conflict: How the Iran-Isreal-U.S. War is Affecting Fuel Costs and Supply and Cost of Living appeared first on GeoPoll.