GeoPoll conducted a survey prior to the election to gauge public sentiment about the state of the country, people’s trust in the electoral process, and their intention to vote. Now that the presidential election is over, GeoPoll implemented a follow-up study to learn about people’s voting experiences on election day, as well as their confidence in the election process and results.

Findings from the post-election survey are detailed in this post. To view the full results, filterable by question, state, gender, and age group, scroll down to the Interactive Data Dashboard.

Voting Experience

Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a steady decline since peaking at 69% in 2003. Although 74% of respondents in our study claim to have voted in the 2023 election, only 29% of registered voters in Nigeria actually voted on election day – the lowest participation rate since Nigeria’s independence.

Of the 26% that did not vote, 41% say it was due to “registration/PVC problems.” Another 18% say they had problems at the polling station.

For those that did vote, most had a “good” or “very good” voting experience (61%). Only 19% had a “poor” or “very poor” experience.

61% of voters report a “good” or “very good” voting experience.

Both the expectation and initial reports of late starts at polling stations may have dissuaded some voters. Delays were blamed on a variety of issues, including technical difficulties, late-arriving officials, cash shortages that affected transport, and attacks on polling stations. Most of the voters in our study report experiencing at least minor delays (61%), with 21% saying their polling station opened more than 2 hours behind schedule.

Whether their polling station opened on time or not, most respondents waited in line for at least 1 hour to vote (60%). Almost 1 in 3 (32%) waited for 3 hours or more.

60% waited in line for at least 1 hour to vote.

Despite fears of violence leading up to the elections, voting was largely peaceful outside of a few isolated incidents. Those incidents likely contribute to the 4% of respondents that say they felt “very unsafe” at their polling station. Most, however, report feeling “somewhat safe” or “very safe” (81%). Women report feeling slightly less safe than men.

In our study conducted a week before the election, most respondents felt “frustrated” with the current situation in Nigeria. Frustration continues to be the most common sentiment now that the election is over, but the percentage dropped from 58% to 45%. The percentage feeling “scared” also decreased, while those experiencing positive feelings (hopeful, blessed and happy) increased.

Trust in the Electoral Process Pre- and Post-Elections

The electoral process for the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election has been plagued by controversy since before the first votes were cast. While acknowledging technical glitches with its vote tallying platform, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) stands by its declaration of Bola Tinubu as the president-elect, and has asked opposition parties to take their grievances to court.

As the parties prepare their legal challenges and the president-elect prepares his administration, we presented voters a series of statements related to their faith in the electoral process, and asked whether they agree or disagree with each statement.

Election Results Acceptance, Fraud, and Violence

Respondents’ expectations for a fraud- and violence-free election that would be accepted by all Nigerians far exceeded their actual experience. The chart below shows the percentages of respondents that “disagreed” or “strongly disagreed” with each of the three statements, both before and after the election.

Opposition party-led protests have dampened respondents’ hope that the results of the 2023 general elections will be accepted by all Nigerians. The percentage that “disagree” or “strongly disagree” with that statement climbed from 24% in the pre-election survey to 64% in the post-election survey.

Disputes over the electoral commission’s handling of the vote also increased perceptions of fraud. Those that disagree or strongly disagree that the elections will be/were free of fraud more than doubled pre-/post-election, rising from 29% to 67%.

Although election day has been deemed mostly peaceful, voters expected better. While only 33% disagreed or strongly disagreed that the elections would be free of violence and intimidation before the election, 63% disagree or strongly disagree with that statement now that the election is over.

Perceptions of INEC’s Performance

On election day, delays at polling stations, technical difficulties, and allegations of irregularities raised concerns about INEC’s planning and performance. After the election, glitches in INEC’s results viewing platform and delays in announcing the results appear to have amplified those concerns.

In our study, voters’ express significant dissatisfaction with INEC’s performance.

Only 31% of respondents agree or strongly agree that all parties and candidates were treated equally and fairly during the election process. Most appear to support opposition party claims of an overall lack of fairness.

Only 31% agree that all parties and candidates were treated equally and fairly.

In the pre-election survey, almost 2 in 3 respondents (65%) agreed or strongly agreed that INEC is transparent and informs the public and media about its activities. That percentage dropped to 34% after the election. Several independent observers, including the European Union, have criticized the election for lacking transparency.

The largest segment of respondents (39%) strongly disagree that INEC performed its duties with honesty and integrity during the 2023 elections. Only 9% strongly agree.

The delay in announcing a winner appears to have sapped public confidence in a free and fair election. Most agree or strongly agree (70%) that the delay in announcing a winner negatively impacts my perceptions of election integrity.

Most also say they have very little to no confidence (63%) in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.

63% have very little or no confidence in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.

Witnessing Election Day Interference

Before INEC formerly declared Bola Tinubu the winner of the 2023 presidential election, opposition parties called for a rerun, alleging widespread vote rigging and violence. In our study, we asked voters about any personal experience with these claims.

Overall, more than 1 in 3 respondents claim they or a friend personally witnessed incidences of vote-buying (37%), voter suppression (40%), ballot tampering (36%), and violence near polling stations (39%). Similar percentages say they were only told about those incidences happening by the media. Smaller percentages say they did not see or hear about those incidences happening at all.

Perceptions of Democracy

With disruption, delays, and irregularities weakening public perception of transparency and integrity in the electoral process, it follows that most respondents say they are “very dissatisfied” with the way democracy works in Nigeria (52%).

52% are very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in Nigeria.

Increasing transparency throughout the electoral process will be critical for boosting public trust in the integrity of Nigeria’s democracy moving forward.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the Nigeria elections using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.

Conduct Democracy and Governance Research with GeoPoll

GeoPoll’s mobile research and engagement platform allow governments and democracy groups to reach citizens in remote areas or conflict zones quickly and safely, without the need for on-the-ground enumerators. Using GeoPoll, organizations can administer surveys and educational messages to extremely specific target populations, giving them the ability to quickly assess situations and act upon the most up-to-date information.

GeoPoll conducted this survey using our proprietary SMS and mobile web research platforms. Data collection occurred from March 11-13, 2023. The multi-modal study used a simple random sampling technique from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to achieve a diverse mix of 542 voting-age adults from across Nigeria.

For more information on the sample and methodology for this study or to conduct a research study of your own, contact us today.

Top photo by Samuel Alabi on Unsplash

The post Nigeria Elections 2023: GeoPoll Post-Election Survey appeared first on GeoPoll.

To assess public perception in the days leading up to the election, GeoPoll conducted a survey using its proprietary SMS and mobile web research platforms. The multi-modal study used a simple random sampling technique from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to achieve a diverse sample of 434 voting-age adults from across Nigeria.

Given the relatively small sample size, this study is not intended to predict the results of the election in any way, but rather to provide a directional snapshot of public sentiment as the election approaches.

Findings from the study are detailed in this post. To view the full results, filterable by question, state, gender, and age group, scroll down to the Interactive Data Dashboard.

Public Perception and Outlook

With Nigeria facing numerous challenges, including a rising cost of living, record unemployment, and widespread poverty and insecurity, if follows that almost half of respondents believe Nigeria is going in the “wrong direction.”

More than 2 out of 3 respondents (67%) aged 36 and older believe the country is going in the wrong direction.

The perceived trajectory of the country has most feeling “frustrated” with the current situation (58%). This holds true across gender and age groups.

Although frustration is the leading public sentiment right now, “hopeful” is second at 38%, illustrating an at least somewhat positive outlook. Further, when asked directly about the future of Nigeria, 69% of respondents say they think it will get “better” compared to only 12% that believe it will get worse.

In order for Nigeria to move forward, however, respondents say the country must first deal with widespread “corruption.”

More than 1 in 4 respondents view “security” as the biggest challenge to peace and stability in Nigeria (28%).

Access to Election News and Information

Nigerians are paying close attention as they prepare to vote in what has become a highly contentious election. In our study, almost all respondents say they are following information about the election at least daily (89%).

89% say they are following information about the election at least daily

Some feel unsatisfied with the information they are getting, however. Only 62% say they are able to access all the true and accurate information about the election that they need.

Disinformation is clearly a concern. More than 9 out of 10 respondents (94%) suspect at least “a little” of the information they have seen or heard about the election to be false or inaccurate.

In January 2023, a BBC investigation concluded that political parties and supporters in Nigeria were illegally paying social media influencers to spread disinformation about their opponents in the upcoming election. Recent reports in The Guardian also uncovered disinformation tactics used to manipulate the results in Nigeria’s 2015 election.

Voting Intentions

Public interest and engagement in the upcoming election is illustrated in the fact that 86% of respondents say they have registered to vote.

86% say they have a Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC)

Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a steady decline over the past 20 years. The political parties and candidates have been working hard during this election cycle to reverse those trends, but concerns about turnout remain. Despite the 86% of respondents that say they have registered to vote and the 65% that claim they are “very likely” to vote, the percentage of people that actually show up on election day to cast their ballot will likely fall far below those lofty claims.

Likelihood to vote increases with age. Those saying they are “very likely” to vote ranges from 59% for respondents aged 18-25 to 70% for respondents aged 36 and older. The mean scores range from 3.99 to 4.23 on a 5-point scale.

Regardless of age group, the largest segment of respondents (71%) says their choice for President will be based on “competence.” “Trust” and a “clear manifesto” are also important considerations for most.

Trust in the Electoral Process

Trust in the electoral process is critical for reducing voter apathy and increasing turnout. Following credible reports in previous elections of ballot stuffing and paying for votes, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says it has implemented technologies and other measures to help ensure that this election is free from fraud and corruption.

To assess voting-age Nigerians’ perceptions of the electoral process in the week leading up to the election, we presented them a series of statements related to the process and asked whether they agree or disagree with each statement.

More than half of respondents (52%) believe in the electoral process enough to agree or strongly agree that the results of the 2023 elections will be accepted by all Nigerians. Only 5% strongly disagree.

Almost half (49%) agree or strongly agree that the elections will be free of fraud. That percentage drops to 40% for respondents aged 18-25. Men express more trust in a fraud-free election than women (51% to 43%).

Although almost 2 in 3 respondents agree or strongly agree that INEC is transparent and informs the public and media about its activities (65%), significantly less believe INEC is an independent institution and not is not influenced by political considerations (50%).

With reports of INEC offices being attacked in the months leading up to the election, only 43% of respondents agree or strongly agree that the elections will be free of violence and intimidation.

Overall, more than 2 in 3 respondents (67%) express at least “a fair amount” of confidence in the ability of INEC to organize credible elections.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s data on the Nigeria elections using the interactive dashboard below. The dashboard provides responses to each question in the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.

Conduct Multi-modal Research with GeoPoll

GeoPoll is a full-service market and social research agency that conducts surveys via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), short message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and mobile web/mobile application communications. We also conduct online and offline qualitative research.

This study was implemented by GeoPoll using our own mobile research platform. The questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and conducted via SMS and mobile web technology. Data collection occurred from February 14-18, 2023. The diverse sample includes a gender composition of 33% females and 67% males, an age breakdown of 22% aged 18-25, 45% aged 26-35, and 33% aged 36 and over, and representation from every state (ADM1) in Nigeria.

For more information on the sample and methodology for this study or to conduct a research study of your own using our multi-modal research platform, contact us today.

The post Nigeria Elections 2023: GeoPoll Public Perception Survey appeared first on GeoPoll.