This article will evaluate the state of mobile penetration and uptake in Kenya, drawing from several data sources that examine mobile penetration, mobile internet usage, and mobile money. 

The Mobile Penetration Rate in Kenya

Gathering concrete data on Kenya’s mobile penetration rate is difficult, as independent studies define mobile penetration differently. However, using a combination of sources, we can approximate how prevalent mobile phones are in the market and how much mobile penetration is expected to grow over the coming years.

The World Bank’s pointer is mobile cellular subscriptions, which as per the latest data in 2019, places the figure at 104%. The Kenya Government’s Communications Authority defines mobile users by SIM penetration, and as of June 2020, reported a 119.9% mobile penetration, a 10% growth from the previous period. We must note that the extra penetration rate is driven, to no small extent, by the ownership of multiple SIM cards, as price-sensitive consumers take advantage of the different offers of the various mobile network providers.

GSMA defines mobile penetration by unique mobile subscribers to counter the drawback of counting total subscriptions, which stood at 59% in 2017. A study conducted by Pew Research in 2017 found that 80% of adults in Kenya reported owning a mobile phone, with 30% owning a smartphone and 50% owning a basic phone.

No matter how you look at it, Kenya’s mobile penetration is higher than the average of the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa and continues to snowball as more and more previously unconnected people, and regions in the country get access to mobile services. 5G technology is now being trialed in Kenya, and GSMA estimates that Kenya will have 7 million new mobile subscribers by 2025.  

Mobile Internet Usage in Kenya

In addition to the penetration of basic mobile services such as voice calls and SMS, it is essential to look at internet and smartphone penetration. Digital connectivity plays a vital role in transforming and improving lives, as it opens the door to employment, financial opportunities, and inclusion for people across the world. There has been a rapid growth in internet penetration in emerging regions over the last decade, with the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) forecasting that more than 90% of all new internet users will come from emerging markets.

For a country that relies so heavily on the mobile phone, it is not surprising that internet access skews towards mobile internet in Kenya. The Kenya Digital Report found that 97% of all internet users in Kenya access the internet on mobile phones, with Kenyans spending over four and a half hours every day using the internet on their phones. As a segment of the overall population, GSMA places the mobile internet penetration rate in Kenya at 27% of the people, representing one of the highest five-year growth rates in Africa.

The growth in mobile internet use in Kenya correlates with a rise in smartphone usage, driven by the emergence of cheaper smartphones and a relatively young population actively looking for information and connection online. This prevalence of smartphones has gradually made Kenya a favorite launchpad for several mobile-based services, including mobile money, targeting the region. 

M-Pesa and Mobile Money Usage in Kenya

It is difficult to talk about mobile in Kenya without discussing mobile money. Kenya leads the world in the adoption of mobile money services, which enable sending and receiving of money through mobile-based accounts, with 96% of households owning a mobile money account.

Mobile money in Kenya is almost synonymous with M-Pesa (which means mobile money in Swahili), which refers to the global market leader in mobile money, Safaricom’s M-Pesa. M-Pesa holds a nearly universal market share of 98.9% of the Kenya mobile money market. Since its launch in 2007, M-Pesa, and by extension other mobile money providers, have contributed positively to Kenyans’ financial inclusion. Transactions performed on mobile money providers include paying for commodities and services, taking out loans, opening savings accounts, making payments for government services, and betting, among others. In an otherwise severely unbanked population, 73% of adults were financially included in 2017; and of these financial account holders, 98% held mobile money accounts.

Mobile money is so crucial to Kenya’s economy, with at least 50% of Kenya’s GDP flowing through mobile money, that most mobile money transactions were zero-rated to shield citizens from the effects of COVID-19. In GeoPoll’s 2020 Year-End survey, we found that customers were using mobile money more frequently in 2020 than in the previous year, likely driven by COVID-19 and a desire to use contactless payment methods.

Conclusion

The mobile phone has become essential for day-to-day life around the globe. As more and more people worldwide get connected to phone services, regions experience growth as it becomes easier for information to flow and citizens to access banking and other essential services. Casting a glance at mobile penetration levels in different areas globally, it becomes clear that countries with better mobile access rates are typically economically stronger than countries with less connectivity. This may probably be one of the keys to inclusive growth globally, as is apparent in Kenya. The growth of mobile penetration in Kenya has led to increased employment and income generation, which manifests as more people get access to phones.

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GeoPoll, whose largest office is based in Nairobi, leverages the growing power of mobile to conduct surveys throughout Kenya and sub-Saharan Africa. We reach people on their own mobile devices through SMS surveys, voice calls, and web-based methodologies and conduct in-person surveys recorded on mobile devices to reach those who do not have access to their own mobile phones. For more information on our mobile methodology, please contact us today.

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The Challenge of Gathering Mobile Penetration Data 

Although the mobile penetration rate in Asia has been increasing dramatically, it can be difficult to get accurate mobile subscriber and user numbers for the region. There are multiple factors that contribute to this difficulty including individuals having access to a phone they do not own, or people owning multiple SIM cards. An accurate count of subscribers in rural areas can be particularly challenging because counting non-users face-to-face may be impossible due to time and money. To get accurate data, some mobile penetration statistics rely in some part on numbers provided from mobile operators, as well as independent research projects. All of these factors can help account for the variation between different research sources. 

Current Mobile Penetration Rates in South Asia and Southeast Asia

To fully understand the data on mobile penetration rates in Asia, we must take a more granular view and consider statistics from specific parts of the region. Countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia provide a snapshot of this rapidly changing region.

Mobile Penetration in South Asia

Mobile penetration in South Asia varies between countries, with India having the highest reported access. The penetration rate in India was at 55% in 2018 and is projected to reach 63% by 2025. A 2018 Pew Research Center study looking at smartphone penetration found India to have a 40% rate of mobile phone ownership with a further 24% owning smartphones. Another source reported 26% smartphone penetration in 2018. While estimations may vary slightly, all show a strong growth trend.

A 2019 GSMA study on mobile internet specifically found the mobile internet penetration rate in India to be at around 35% the previous year. Bangladesh, the 5th largest mobile market in the region, had a mobile internet penetration rate of 22% in 2018 with Pakistan at 24%. Overall in South Asia, 33% of the population is connected to mobile internet, a number which has almost doubled since 2014. During these four years, an additional 50 million people have also gained access to mobile broadband coverage. 

Mobile penetration across South Asia will likely continue to grow in the coming years. South Asia has some of the most affordable access to coverage worldwide. Additionally,  significant infrastructure investments by 4G providers over the years can partially account for the growth in mobile penetration. 

Mobile Penetration in Southeast Asia

The countries in Southeast Asia have seen incredible growth in mobile penetration over the last few years. GSMA highlights Indonesia as an emerging digital economy giant and one of the top ten most improved countries since 2014. In 2017, there were 176 million unique mobile subscribers in Indonesia, which equated to a 64% penetration rate. This number is estimated to grow to a 69% penetration rate by 2025. Due to infrastructure growth, affordability of monthly data plans, increased higher education, and development of local content 25 million people started using mobile internet in one year. Two thirds of the country now own a mobile device. 

The  2018 Pew Research Center study on smartphone penetration reported 42% of the population had smartphones, with another 28% of people owning another type of mobile phone. A recent GSMA study calculates smartphone connection at 73% of total connections in Q3 of 2019. Young adults are particularly quick to adopt this technology. Only 17% of young adults (18-34yrs) owned a smartphone in 2013, but the Pew study cites a growth to 66% by 2018. 

The Philippines is another area in Southeast Asia that has seen significant growth in mobile penetration rates over the last several years. Startups are driving digital innovation in the country. A recent GSMA report on the mobile economy indicated 2018 mobile subscriber penetration at 64% of the population. Specifically for smartphones, the Pew Research Center cited 55% of adults are reported owning a smartphone, with another 22% owning another type of mobile phone. Of this 55% of adults who owned a smartphone, the largest percentage of these (74%) were young people ages 18-34. 

What is next for mobile penetration in Asia?

Mobile technology is increasingly essential for innovative businesses and international trade. Unsurprisingly, economic success is directly correlated to phone ownership. As a country’s mobile phone penetration increases, the economy becomes more successful. One commonality across Asia and other emerging regions is that younger people are more likely to have access to smartphones. 

We should continue to examine trends in mobile penetration, as well as smartphone and mobile internet adoption while simultaneously not discounting those who do not have access. GeoPoll leverages the growing power of mobile connectivity, while also utilizing face-to-face research modes in certain situations. We are able to reach all types of mobile devices and connectivity levels through SMS, voice calls, and web-based methodologies. 

For more information on our mobile methodologies, please contact us today.

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That is a massive number of people, but it is important to note that growth is not coming equally from all regions of the world. For this reason, we will examine and compare the landscapes of mobile phone penetration in regions across the globe in this post.

Considerations when discussing mobile penetration

Throughout this post, we will take a look at mobile penetration in regions across the world. Seeing as mobile penetration can be interpreted as a few different concepts, for the purpose of this post it is defined as unique mobile phone owners.

It is important to keep in mind that methodologies for measuring mobile penetration are not perfect. In an ideal world, mobile penetration studies would be conducted through face-to-face data collection. Data collection of this nature on a global scale is incredibly costly and time-consuming. For this reason, publicly available studies on the topic present data that was gathered primarily from the mobile network operators themselves, which means a margin of error may be present.

Additionally, when discussing mobile penetration by region on a global scale, the statistics will show averages of mobile phone ownership rather than more granular views of where mobile penetration is concentrated or diluted. Furthermore, in certain areas of the world, there are complexities regarding mobile penetration—like societies where it is common to share a single mobile device with friends and family—that are not outlined with each presentation of statistics.

Projected Growth in Global Mobile Penetration

The quickest growth in mobile penetration is coming from Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. In these regions, basic mobile technology is becoming increasingly accessible to the masses. This growth is not only because of technological development that occurred or structural changes that took place but also because of a phenomenon that has been referred to as “leap-frogging”.

In essence, regions that were low-tech 15-20 years ago are adopting mobile telecommunications technology today by purchasing low cost mobile phones. These mobile phones are only affordable options today due to years of technological development in regions like North America and China. Years of product development and research took the technology from expensive, bulky desktop computers to advanced handheld mobile devices. During that time, simple mobile phone devices became exponentially cheaper to produce, distribute, and use in locations without structure for wired technology. Today, populations in regions like Africa and Latin America have been able to leap-frog over the process of developing wired telephone networks and instead move toward digital inclusion by purchasing rather affordable mobile phones.

Mobile Penetration Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is still in the midst of stabilizing after economic struggles that have inhibited strong GDP growth in the past few years. Despite the lull in GDP growth, the digital exodus to mobile phone ownership in SSA has surged. In fact, the growth in the digital space in the region is significantly exceeding GPD growth.

As for the hard numbers, it has been predicted that the number of unique mobile subscribers will rise from the 641 million seen at close of 2018 to 871 million by the close of 2025, which is a 6% increase.

Mobile Penetration in North America

At the end of 2018, North America had 321 million unique mobile subscribers. By 2025, the penetration rate is expected to increase by 2% to 345 million unique mobile subscribers.

Mobile Penetration in the Middle East and North Africa

The mobile penetration in the Middle East and North Africa is on the lower end compared to other regions in the world but growing rapidly. At the close of 2018, there were 382 million unique mobile subscribers and that number is expected to rise to 5% by the close of 2025 to 459 million unique mobile subscribers.

Mobile Penetration in Latin America

It has been predicted that Latin America’s unique mobile subscribers will increase 6% from 416 million in 2018 to 484 million in 2025, which indicates that Latin America’s mobile phone market is one of the fastest growing markets in the world.

The growth in Latin America’s mobile phone market may be affected in the coming years by inter-industry competition of telecom operators and government regulations. Currently, there are large, international telecom companies competing with smaller, local telecom companies, which has garnered attention from national governments. Governments in certain countries have implemented regulations that hold larger telecom operators back from taking over the markets. Without large telecom companies, mobile phones may be costlier for users and inhibit the mobile penetration growth rate. Due to these complexities, only time will tell how the industry develops in the years to come.

Mobile Penetration in Europe

The mobile sector in Europe is anticipated to contribute 720 billion euros to the global GDP by the end of 2022. Already high adoption rates are expected to continue growing and reach 481 million by the end of 2025, which would be up 3% from the close of 2017.

Mobile Penetration in Eastern Europe & Russia

Mobile penetration is high in Eastern Europe & Russia. As of the end of 2018, there were 235 million unique mobile subscribers in the area. By 2025 only 2% growth is anticipated, which would bring the count of unique mobile subscribers up to 244 million.

Mobile Penetration in APAC

In contrast to the current growth seen in other regions in the world, like Sub-Saharan Africa, the growth of mobile phone penetration in APAC has slowed after years of rapid uptake. In 2018 there were 2.8 billion mobile subscribers in the Asia Pacific. The penetration rate of the region is anticipated to increase by 5% by 2025, meaning a total of 3.1 billion projected mobile subscribers in the region.

Mobile Penetration in China

China is expected to reach 1.2 billion mobile subscribers by 2025. If these projected numbers actualize, a 3% increase in penetration rate would be seen during the 7-year span from 2018 to 2025, which is one of the lowest projected growth rates when compared to other regions globally.

Takeaways

People around the world are becoming more connected through mobile phone technology than ever before. At GeoPoll, we are experts in utilizing that technology to remotely engage mobile phone subscribers in research projects in African, Latin American, and Asian markets. To learn more about how the mobile phone can help your organization answer research questions, contact us today.

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