Recently, the rapid withdrawal of US troops, change in government, and escalating humanitarian crisis in neighboring Afghanistan impacted not only Pakistan but the entire region. To assess the impact of the tumultuous past few months on Pakistanis, GeoPoll conducted a survey in October 2021, following up on our study from January 2021.

The survey gathers on the ground feedback from Pakistanis on a number of regionally important topics, including:

• Foreign influences on the economy, military, politics, and culture of Pakistan
• Perceptions on the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan
• Thoughts on immigration, security, and international aid
• The ongoing impacts of COVID-19
• Personal finances and the country’s economy

Findings from the survey show continued Pakistani support for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Most do not support Pakistan allowing more Afghan refugees, however, worrying about their impact on the economy and security. COVID-19 continues to present economic challenges as well, with most reporting a decrease in income compared to before the pandemic. Despite these hardships, several positive trends surfaced, including an increase in likeliness to take the vaccine as soon as possible and an optimistic outlook for Pakistan’s future.

Click below to download GeoPoll’s full written report, or scroll down to view the survey data in the interactive data dashboard.

Interactive Data Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s on-the-ground data from Pakistan using the dashboard below. Here, you can view all pieces of data from this study, filterable by Province, age group, gender, and question.

Conduct Research in Pakistan

This study provides on the ground data and insights on pressing topics of interest in Pakistan. GeoPoll can conduct research in Pakistan via 2-way SMS surveys, Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) voice calls, mobile web links, and in-person research methods. To learn more about GeoPoll’s capabilities in Pakistan and around the world, please contact us.

The post GeoPoll Report: Follow-up Pakistan Study on Afghanistan, Immigration, and COVID-19 appeared first on GeoPoll.

This article draws from GeoPoll’s May 2021 report on the ongoing economic, social, and health impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as vaccine perceptions from a survey we conducted in Côte D’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa in March/April 2021. You can access the interactive result dashboard and download the report for free here.

In this article, we will focus on the economic impact of the pandemic, particularly how personal and household incomes have changed, how consumer spending habits have shifted, and the financial outlook for the next couple of months.

Incomes Have Decreased

The coronavirus pandemic has seen many industries suffer the brunt of a forced change in lifestyle as governments imposed measures to cut the spread of the disease. Many businesses closed down or reduced capacities, leading to income and job losses for many people.

The World Bank, in its biannual economic analysis for the region in March 2021, projects sub-Saharan Africa will see moderate economic growth this year, rebounding from the COVID-19 induced recession of 2020. However, the resurgence of the pandemic is dampening those projections, and many are at risk of suffering further setbacks to their personal finances and living standards.

In GeoPoll’s previous study on the ongoing impact of COVID-19 from November 2020, 79% of respondents stated their income had decreased since June 2020. Our current study shows that downward trend continuing with 64% saying their income has decreased since January 2021. The largest segment (42%) say it has decreased a lot.

In Kenya, the recent resurgence of the pandemic and renewal of government restrictions around the time the survey ran appears to have had a severe economic impact, with 79% of respondents in the country reporting a decrease in income. Young people in Kenya appear to be particularly affected, with 66% of respondents ages 15-25 saying their income has decreased a lot. Only 10% of respondents across countries said their income has increased even a bit.

Consumer Spending Changed

Spending on food and other necessities has fluctuated significantly since the start of 2021. When asked to compare their current spending on food and other necessities to three months ago, most respondents choose the extremes, saying it either decreased a lot (27%) or increased a lot (24%). Only 12% of respondents say it has not changed.

Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 18.17% in March 2021, hitting a 4-year peak due to the impacts of COVID-19. Food inflation in particular rose to 22.95%, putting even more pressure on households faced with rising unemployment and shrinking incomes. In our study, 68% of respondents in Nigeria stated that their spending on food and other necessities has increased since January 2021. Almost half (47%) say it has increased a lot.

The overwhelming reason why respondents across countries say their spending on food and other necessities has decreased is that they have less money (76%). For respondents that stated their spending on food and other necessities has increased, 85% claim the increase is because prices have gone up. In Nigeria, that number rises to 94%.

With 64% of respondents saying their income has decreased since January 2021, it is understandable that 60% of respondents say their spending on non-essential items has also decreased. In Kenya, where 79% of respondents experienced a decrease in income, 51% say their spending on non-essential items has decreased a lot. It is likely a matter of prioritizing essentials such as food over non-essentials such as fashion items.

Most respondents across countries (65%) say the reason why their spending on non-essential items has decreased is because they have less money. Almost 18% say it is because they are spending more elsewhere – likely on food and essentials. Of the relatively few respondents that say their spending on non-essential items has increased, 77% attribute the increase to a rise in prices. In Nigeria, 90% attribute it to a rise in prices.

How the Near Future Looks Financially

The prevalent drop or stagnation in income in sub-Saharan Africa has understandably impacted consumer finances and spending.

Across countries, most respondents (53%) say they are extremely concerned about paying expenses in the next three months.

The level of concern is particularly high in Mozambique with 70% of respondents saying they are extremely concerned, in line with World Bank’s assessment that a sizeable number of Mozambicans could fall back into poverty as a result of the pandemic. Conversely, in the Democratic Republic of Congo almost half (46%) of respondents say they are not concerned at all about paying expenses. That is 12% higher than Côte D’Ivoire and more than double the other four countries included in this study.

Looking ahead, respondents have polarized views about their financial future. When asked to rate their optimism about their financial situation improvising in the next three months, 37% are not at all optimistic and 35% are extremely optimistic. Respondents ages 26-35 are slightly more optimistic than the other age groups with 38% saying they are extremely optimistic. Women are more likely to be extremely optimistic than men (38% to 32%).

Nigeria stands out as having the brightest outlook for the future. Despite the tumultuous first few months of 2021, 46% of respondents in Nigeria are extremely optimistic about their financial situation improving in the next 3 months. Respondents in the Democratic Republic of Congo are the most skeptical, with only 27% extremely optimistic and 54% not at all optimistic. According to the United Nations, one-third of the DRC’s population is currently facing acute hunger due to conflict and the economic impacts of COVID-19, providing possible context for that skepticism.

About This Survey

This study was implemented by GeoPoll using our own mobile research platform and respondent database via two-way SMS between March 24th and April 12th, 2021 with some countries completing data collection earlier than others.

The study questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and translated where needed and was run in six countries: Côte D’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa. The total sample size was 400 per country and 2,400 total, which provides a 5% margin of error and a 95% confidence interval. GeoPoll used a simple random sampling technique from GeoPoll’s respondent database of mobile subscribers in each country surveyed. The sample was nationally representative by age, gender and location (ADM1).

For more information on the sample and methodology, to request copies of the questionnaire and response data, or to speak to a GeoPoll representative on conducting surveys in Africa, Asia and Latin America, please contact us.

The post Report: The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Africa appeared first on GeoPoll.

Although Pakistan has not recorded as many COVID-19 cases as India and other countries, lockdowns and other measures including the closure of schools to stop the spread of the pandemic have upended life for many in Pakistan in the past year. Actions related to COVID-19 combined with extreme weather events including drought, flooding, and locusts in the past years have also contributed to food insecurity in the country, particularly among the poorest populations.

In order to gather on-the-ground feedback from Pakistanis on their feelings towards the US troop removal from Afghanistan, foreign influencers, and how COVID-19 has impacted their lives in the past year, GeoPoll conducted a study via SMS in Pakistan with 408 respondents, the majority of whom were located in the Punjab region. The study was conducted in January 2021. While this study was not nationally representative, it provides some high-level insights into the views of Pakistanis and how they are looking to the future. Read a summary of results below or jump to the dashboard with full results.

Pakistan and the Great Power Competition

There are several factors that make Pakistan a geopolitically significant country, and as such foreign powers including the United States, China, and Russia have an interest in Pakistan. GeoPoll’s study asked several questions regarding foreign influences on Pakistan, and the responses demonstrate how different countries are influencing different aspects of Pakistan. Economically, China was the clear largest influencer, cited by 49% as the biggest influencer of Pakistan’s economy, likely related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, an infrastructure initiative.

Respondents were more split on the largest influence on Pakistan’s military and politics, with 33% stating that China has the largest influence on Pakistan’s military, 20% stating the United States, and 21% stating India. Politically, the United States and India are cited as the largest influences, at 32% each.

Culturally, 50% of respondents stated that India was the largest influence on Pakistan’s culture, with other countries including the United States, China, and Afghanistan having under 15% of responses each. Russia was not listed as a significant influence in any question, though more respondents felt Russia influences Pakistan’s military (7%) than any other category. Afghanistan’s biggest perceived influence was in Pakistan’s culture.

Pakistan’s Views on US Troop Withdrawal

 Respondents were somewhat split on the United States’ recent announcement that they would withdraw troops from Afghanistan, with the largest group (43%) stating that they ‘strongly agree’ with the decision, while 33% strongly disagree with the decision. Although relatively small sample sizes, the oldest age group were most likely to state that they strongly disagree with the troop withdrawal, with 50% of those aged 35 and older strongly disagreeing with the removal. Females were also slightly more likely to disagree with the US troop withdrawal than males.

COVID-19 and Pakistan  

COVID-19 has had economic and social impacts on huge portions of the population in most countries, and Pakistan is no exception. In line with our findings from other studies, GeoPoll found that 41% in Pakistan stated that finances were their biggest challenge due to COVID-19, and 44% state that their income has decreased a lot compared to before COVID-19, with an additional 26% stating their income has decreased a little. Despite this, respondents expressed hope for the future, with 56% stating that they believe Pakistan’s economy will get better in the next year, and 55% believing that their personal finances will get better in the next year.

Additionally, a majority of respondents stated that they would get the COVID-19 vaccine once it is available to them, with 41% stating they will ‘definitely’ get the vaccine as soon as possible, and 25% stating they would ‘probably’ get the vaccine as soon as possible. The biggest concern surrounding the vaccine was the ability for everyone to get the vaccine, at 28%, followed by vaccine safety, at 21%.

Conduct Research in Pakistan 

This study provides some high-level insights into several topics of interest in Pakistan. GeoPoll can conduct research in Pakistan via 2-way SMS surveys, Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) voice calls, web links, and in-person research methods. To learn more about our capabilities in Pakistan, please contact us.

The post Pakistan Study on COVID-19, US Troop Withdrawal appeared first on GeoPoll.

While COVID-19 is undoubtedly having an impact on economies in sub-Saharan Africa, cases and deaths in the region so far have been relatively low, a fact which has perplexed many scientists. Low testing rates could be partially to blame, however countries such as Kenya have not seen a large rise in unattributed deaths that could have been caused by coronavirus. For now, the real crisis in emerging regions is in Latin America. Brazil, Latin America’s most populated country, has recorded over 110,000 deaths, and the entire region spanning from Mexico to Chile has experienced over 250,000 deaths and 5 million cases.

Conducting Research in Latin America and the Caribbean

The United Nations has predicted that COVID-19 will lead to the worst recession in Latin America in 100 years, and the impacts of the pandemic in Latin America have been exasperated by existing conditions including high rates of poverty, impacts of climate change, and violence. The Caribbean is also facing unique challenges due to COVID-19. While most island nations have low case counts, their reliance on tourism and high costs of imported goods will have a strong economic effect, with the IMF predicting an economic contraction of 6.2% in the Caribbean.

Government corruption and humanitarian crises in the region can not only compound the effect of COVID-19, but also make gathering accurate data on the virus’ impacts a challenge. Official reporting can often be incomplete; In June, Brazil was ordered by its own Supreme Court to reinstate a website reporting COVID-19 cases after it had been taken down by the government. In Venezuela, which is still in the midst of a political crisis that has alienated it’s government from other countries, it is widely suspected that the actual case count is much higher than has been officially reported.

In addition to inconsistent government reporting, COVID-19 has prevented international organizations from safely gathering on-the-ground data in Latin American and the Caribbean. A lack of reliable, accurate data on not only the spread of COVID-19 itself but also its impact on areas including food security, job loss, and education can make it difficult for humanitarian and healthcare organizations to effectively assess needs and deliver aid. Due to the infeasibility of face-to-face research, humanitarian organizations have turned to Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) to continue gathering vital data in Latin America and the Caribbean. Organizations including the Inter-American Development Bank, Innovations for Poverty Action, and the World Bank are already using CATI for research projects examining COVID-19’s impact on everything from education and family wellbeing, to how indigenous populations are being affected by the virus.

CATI enables organizations to conduct research even with those who are illiterate and do not have internet access by using voice calls from trained local interviewers. Latin America has one of the fastest growth rates of mobile penetration in the globe, and mobile-based methods such as CATI voice calls allow for research to be conducted safely and remotely. GeoPoll currently operates call centers in several countries in Latin America and has capabilities throughout the region. To learn more about GeoPoll’s operations in Latin America and the Caribbean please contact us today.

The post COVID-19 Research in Latin America and the Caribbean appeared first on GeoPoll.

The economic impact of COVID-19 is being felt globally, but economies classified as ‘emerging’ and ‘developing’ by the World Bank, which includes those in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, are likely to be hardest hit. The combination of largely informal workforces, a decrease in export demand, and existing economic instability is expected to result in an outsize impact in countries such as South Africa, Brazil, and Indonesia.

In sub-Saharan Africa, it has been predicted that coronavirus will result in the first recession in that region for 25 years. Most countries in the region have not yet experienced their peak in COVID-19 cases, and it’s possible that coronavirus-related measures and the related economic impacts will continue for some time.

Coronavirus’ Effect on the Economy, Employment and Income in sub-Saharan Africa

Despite these predictions, we don’t know yet how the economic impact of COVID-19 varies based on country, job type, income level, and other factors. In order to provide a more complete picture of the economic impact of COVID-19, GeoPoll has conducted a study in five countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Kenya, Nigeria, Cote D’Ivoire, Mozambique, and South Africa. The main areas of GeoPoll’s study are:

• Ability to work and income change since the outset of COVID-19
• Concern over expenses and the ability to pay for basic needs
• Usage of loans, savings, and income to pay for expenses
• The impact of COVID-19 on loans and mobile money services
• Receipt of aid and opinions of government priorities

The study was conducted by SMS from June – July 2020, with 500 respondents per country or 2,500 total, and a nationally representative sample by age, gender, and location. To download the full PDF report, a 16-page report including breakdowns and analysis by country, job type, income level, and more, please click below. You can also view the results in our interactive dashboard.

Data: COVID-19’s Economic Impact

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